Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Pompey Keith]

So will there finally be some snow on the South Coast? Or are we in for more rain?

[divadee]

So will there finally be some snow on the South Coast? Or are we in for more rain?

Looking at the models more rain! Or possibly freezing rain if the temps drop. I doubt we will get the glorious white stuff!

[feb1991blizzard]

This is upgrading all the time, here is the GEM PPN, im not sure what purple hatched though i presume its freezing rain, pasting for large area if this run verifys.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0

[A.J]

12z NMM goes for a snow event for eastern areas, but keeps it as rain for central/western areas...so BIG uncertainty with regards to the set-up even now.

I wouldn't want to call it at all...but all I'll say is the NMM was unreal for Saturday, one of the BEST model forecasts I've ever seen, nailed both precip type AND total amounts, exactly...

Bit of a sweeping statement KW and not strictly true....The west midlands, for example, were forecast,as modeled by the NMM, to have a freezing rain start, turning to snow for no more than a couple of hours changing back to rain, when what actually transpired started as snow, stayed as snow for 8 hours dropped 10cm + of snow, changing to rain very briefly on the back edge, so for our region, it didn't exactly cover itself with glory whereas the NAE was spot on for our region for PPN type and timings....(and I'm a big NMM fan!)

[Costa Del Fal]

The GFS and NMM are pretty much the only models that I can find that keep the cold enough uppers out to the East. For example the GFS and NMM have the decent uppers only over East Anglia by tomorrow evening. Everything else has at least the 0c 850hPa line into Wales at least.

[alex131297]

This is upgrading all the time, here is the GEM PPN, im not sure what purple hatched though i presume its freezing rain, pasting for large area if this run verifys.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0

is the green rain?

[Wilxy]

is the green rain?

Yes and the white lines means snow so if there are no white lines its rain and this is a big upgrade if it was to pull off compared to the other models.

[Nick L]

Bit of a sweeping statement KW and not strictly true....The west midlands, for example, were forecast,as modeled by the NMM, to have a freezing rain start, turning to snow for no more than a couple of hours changing back to rain, when what actually transpired started as snow, stayed as snow for 8 hours dropped 10cm + of snow, changing to rain very briefly on the back edge, so for our region, it didn't exactly cover itself with glory whereas the NAE was spot on for our region for PPN type and timings....(and I'm a big NMM fan!)

Agreed, I was watching it closely. I got pretty much a 99% snow event in Cannock, yet the NMM gave it about 50%.

[feb1991blizzard]

is the green rain?

From what i understand anything hatched is sleet or snow, the blue / green represent the intensity, although the key might be different on that model, anyone speak french on here???

[Cheese Rice]

Really quite a divergence between the NAE and NMM

For example central northern England is forecast 17mm on the PPN accumulation chart

While the NAE goes for 3-6mm

[alex131297]

From what i understand anything hatched is sleet or snow, the blue / green represent the intensity, although the key might be different on that model, anyone speak french on here???

Thanks which of the green & blue has faster intensity?

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Okay please can someone let me know if the iow have any chance at all of snow the next couple of days OR are we missing out AGAIN!! thanks

[SnowRules]

Thanks which of the green & blue has faster intensity?

Can you not interpret the simple Legend?

[Paul]

The NMM model comes in many different flavours and resolutions, the one KW was referring to was the Netweather one which can be found in NW Extra

[axel2k5]

From what i understand anything hatched is sleet or snow, the blue / green represent the intensity, although the key might be different on that model, anyone speak french on here???

Verglas (violet hatching) is freezing rain.

Grésil (orange hatching ) is sleet

[Matt Taylor]

So will there finally be some snow on the South Coast? Or are we in for more rain?

The snow got as far as Clanfied/Rowlands Castle it seems, certainly saw lying snow in the Petersfield area this afternoon on my way back to London.

[Summer Sun]

From what i understand anything hatched is sleet or snow, the blue / green represent the intensity, although the key might be different on that model, anyone speak french on here???

This is what the charts say

rainfall in (time you select IE 6 hrs or 144h) (mm), risk Snow (white), ice (purple), sleet (orange)

Hope that helps

[snow drift]

The NMM model comes in many different flavours and resolutions, the one KW was referring to was the Netweather one which can be found in NW Extra

Appologise.

[Aaron]

NMM goes for 17mm over central northern england, which would equate to 17cm of snow.

However the NMM goes for freezing rain for the most part.

Duno what to expect tbh.

17mm of freezing rainfall would be a catastrophe, please god no.. totally useless

[IDO]

No snow according to the Met further than around east of Swindon. Mainly the M5 corridor. Dying out midday and nothing in the South or SE or East.

[TEITS]

The NMM model comes in many different flavours and resolutions, the one KW was referring to was the Netweather one which can be found in NW Extra

I shall just add to that Paul that in my experience the NMM which i've used from NW Extra is in my opinion the most accurate out of all the models. I always remember back in 2010 when every model including the NAE & the BBC/Met O forecasts were predicting heavy snowfalls. The NMM wasn't interested because it was predicting higher upper temps, dewpoints. The result was the NMM was spot on and instead of seeing heavy snow my existing lying snow started melting when the higher dewpoints arrived.

[summer blizzard]

It looks to me as if the 12z models were largely upgrades for Yorkshire.

GFS12z looks very nice with temperatures in Leeds remaining at 0C or below but a freezing rain event until 03:00 Friday when it turns to snow. Interestingly it has the winds backing SE again from 21:00 tommorow so we could see more upgrades.

Personally i think that with around 24 hours of precipitation somewhere could see 20cm+.

[Summer Sun]

The downgrade has started for the snow on Friday

This was just before 4pm this afternoon

This was just a few minutes ago

[TEITS]

17mm of freezing rainfall would be a catastrophe, please god no.. totally useless

Just want to clarify something. If the models are predicting 17mm that does not automatically mean 17cm of snow as some have suggested. Sometimes 17mm of rainfall will only bring 5cm of snowfall and other times it can bring in excess of 20cm. All depends on the snow ratio and this is dependant on many factors i.e upper temps, dewpoints, thickness etc.

[Aaron]

Yes I'm aware of that TEITS, but if 17mm of rain falls and it instantly freezes, that would be horrific