The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[A.J]

Yep, getting ready to right this one off I'm afraid for the W Midlands....PPN far too east and south, milder upper air has encroached to far into the midlands and PPN currently over the midlands is already showing signs of fizzling out.. can't see that mass over eastern parts and the north sea suddenly pivoting and spreading westwards ...hmm, and I'm the eternal optimist, but tonight is not our night I fear....and no I'm not a moaner, far from it, just making a call from the radar & current data observations & analysis

Edited February 9, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[kmanmx]

In better news snow is falling with decent intensity now, but much like saturday small flakes sub cm in size, annoying, give me bigger flakes

Yep, getting ready to right this one off I'm afraid for the W Midlands....PPN far too east and south, milder upper air has encroached to far into the midlands and PPN currently over the midlands is already showing signs of fizzling out.. can't see that mass over eastern parts and the north sea suddenly pivoting and spreading westwards ...hmm, and I'm the eternal optimist, but tonight is not our night I fear

Thats what i'm thinking but I dont see how the MetO/NMM can be so wrong at such a short timescale, it's practically happening as we speak.. yet MetO continues to upgrade the forecast for leicester with snow being heavier and lasting longer.

Edited February 9, 2012 by kmanmx

[andy_leics22]

I can confirm it's snowing here!! FINALLY! Why the heck is the heaviest PPN going to the EAST of Leicester/Nottingham though?! I thought that band would be moving W/SW by now but it's moving straight S by the looks of it. This was noooooooooot forecast

[Arctic Hare]

Hi everyone newbie here.

Just poked my head out the door and snow has just started to fall.

Hi Rodders; welcome. You join us right in the middle of one of the classic events of weather-watching -- the creeping feeling of doom and despondency most of us get when it looks as though a snow forecast isn't going to work out in our specific back yards.

Not looking good for us in the west -- I know it's still only 7 pm, but it's going to need a heck of a shift to get the snow over here. So I'll just hope that some of you easterners who missed out last weekend will do better tonight.

Oh, and still 0.5 °C here, still raining, still not even a touch of sleet to be seen.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Arctic Hare

[SalopWatcher]

rank in shrewsbury, rain rain rain..... not even as cold as last weekend at the moment...

[Arctic Hare]

Hi Rodders; welcome. You join us right in the middle of one of the classic events of weather-watching -- the creeping feeling of doom and despondency most of us get when it looks as though a snow forecast isn't going to work out in our specific back yards.

Not looking good for us in the west -- I know it's still only 7 pm, but it's going to need a heck of a shift to get the snow over here. So I'll just hope that some of you easterners who missed out last weekend will do better tonight.

Oh, and still 0.5 °C here, still raining, still not even a touch of sleet to be seen.

[Bishop Brennan]

Why do all the forecasts still showing going across the midlands in to the s/west?

My (very basic) understanding is that the front will slow down as it crosses the region, pivot slightly and trundle south-westwards.

Bish

[Bolton67]

Coming down heavy now.

[PolarWarsaw]

Terrible forecasting in my opinion. Sitting through the midlands today forecast was so abysmal seeing the graphics and the talk of 10cm BEING SO WRONG, So highly infuriating its incredible!

[Zenarcher]

Snow showers for the Midlands seem most likely in Northern, Eastern and Southern parts with the West looking to see mainly rain or at least sleet. However for those in the far West I believe some snow showers could be likely during Friday afternoon.

Map shows the % chance of snow,

Enjoy the snow if you get any

[richbiss]

Mild upper air being pushed back a little now!

[Bishop Brennan]

Yep, getting ready to right this one off I'm afraid for the W Midlands....PPN far too east and south, milder upper air has encroached to far into the midlands and PPN currently over the midlands is already showing signs of fizzling out.. can't see that mass over eastern parts and the north sea suddenly pivoting and spreading westwards ...hmm, and I'm the eternal optimist, but tonight is not our night I fear....and no I'm not a moaner, far from it, just making a call from the radar & current data observations & analysis

aj I'm holding you personally responsible for the success (or otherwise) of this event. For no other reason than it makes it easier for us to have a scapegoat

Bish

[NoSnowJo]

Accoding to the recent update andy from the met snow till midnightish can't see it myself but we will see

[Potent Gust]

Snow stopped in Tamworth about 20 mins ago.

[ARB]

i like your thinking! good to be positive. too many moaners in this world

Ah but I think some of us secretly enjoy moaning, I must confess to doing so myself sometimes. In reality we should not get too uptight about the weather you cannot influence it just through sheer willpower though it feels you ought to be able to!

[kmanmx]

The blob of precip that just went past leicester is actually moving SSE. Unless something radical happens soon this forecast is aweful.

[A.J]

aj I'm holding you personally responsible for the success (or otherwise) of this event. For no other reason than it makes it easier for us to have a scapegoat

Bish

I hate you!

:w00t:

[cyclonic happiness]

Run the sat images sequence and you'll see that there is a pulse of cold air arriving from the east and is just starting to interact with the front on it's southeastern side.

Hopefully this should be enough to slow and rotate the precipitation back up and westwards over the midlands, I don't think it's a miss yet, it's only just begun!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

[Costa Del Fal]

Very fine snow falling here. However the PPN looks to be dying out generally with Precip going to our West and East.

[A.J]

like most I hate to be wrong, but tonight I'd like mother nature to force me to eat a whole humble pie and give me a snow dumping!...lol

[Fozfoster]

The meto have up graded for here snow for 9pm so the pivot sounds good, hang in there guys....

[Supercell]

Very odd how this has turned out. Just hours before the event most of us were worried the whole thing was going to be too far west in Wales. Looks like it's ignored the projected track altogether and defied everyone by staying east and heading south.

[PolarWarsaw]

like most I hate to be wrong, but tonight I'd like mother nature to force me to eat a whole humble pie and give me a snow dumping!...lol

Id say the likelyness of that is about 0.01%. Next week looks poo also

[kmanmx]

Run the sat images sequence and you'll see that there is a pulse of cold air arriving from the east and is just starting to interact with the front on it's southeastern side.

Hopefully this should be enough to slow and rotate the precipitation back up and westwards over the midlands, I don't think it's a miss yet, it's only just begun!

http://www.metoffice...test_uk_ir.html

Actually you might be on to something, I see what you mean. All that I thinks happened is that air mass has arrived later than expected. Might explain why MetO changed 12am snow forecast from Light to Heavy.

[dvdfjojo]

Oh dear, big gap in the non-existent precipitation above us now and unless this starts moving west, I think we've had it for this event. Oh well, roll on the next rollercoaster. Good luck to those further south, hope it starts heading south-west towards you soon.