North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 7

[pip22]

701st post grrr!!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Lovely charts posted by Gavin in the model thread showing max temps of 12 degrees for the NW in the near future. Good news as spring is getting nearer and get some good mild weather we all want and a nice early spring is very much possible if charts verify.

Good news all round

errr.............no

[NickyB]

Ahh tiz the middle of February and the mild ramping has returned Zzzz

[pip22]

maybe next week some mild weather and flake or two of cheese!! :rofl:

Edited February 10, 2012 by pip21

[SparkleS]

maybe next week some mild weather and flake or two of cheese!! :rofl:

Lol i'll av some of that! Lol

However i prefer mature!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

jpwild, have a look at that

Edited February 10, 2012 by I Cumbria Marra I

[swainclubber]

jpwild, have a look at that

nice chart for what was once a reasonably reliable timeframe. see what it shows next Tue or Wed before getting excited I think.

[chris78]

sounds like things are fairly uncertain...but looks like we will possibly get a northerly a northerly of some sort.....how severe or with or without snow looks uncertain....leaves me stuck between a rock and a hard place...i love the cold...but I have 153 fruit trees (at the least) to plant with various groups of volunteers before mid march...will it, wont it freezing weather makes that a right pain!

[swainclubber]

sounds like things are fairly uncertain...but looks like we will possibly get a northerly a northerly of some sort.....how severe or with or without snow looks uncertain....leaves me stuck between a rock and a hard place...i love the cold...but I have 153 fruit trees (at the least) to plant with various groups of volunteers before mid march...will it, wont it freezing weather makes that a right pain!

wow yeah bit of a nightmare for you that one. that chart shown above if it came off like that would see your snow free area looking very white indeed.

[jpwild]

I love snow, but only if it's + 6 inches and we have cool days after it and blue skys with some clouds in. Otherwise it's just boring and miserable.

May as well have mild weather, lol. So trying to use mental thoughts to bring some mild weather and warm rain for a early spring, lol.

But yes I will admit that FI is days not weeks, and any charts mild, cold or whatever over a few days even will change as models are chopping and changing and UKMO seem to be on recovering from New Year's Eve party.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I love snow, but only if it's + 6 inches and we have cool days after it and blue skys with some clouds in. Otherwise it's just boring and miserable.

May as well have mild weather, lol. So trying to use mental thoughts to bring some mild weather and warm rain for a early spring, lol.

But yes I will admit that FI is days not weeks, and any charts mild, cold or whatever over a few days even will change as models are chopping and changing and UKMO seem to be on recovering from New Year's Eve party.

Just as well you love snow living there! a lot of people would be fed up to the teeth of it around Buxton

[jpwild]

The quality of snow this winter has been awful. At times only on high hills and lower in the hills just green - looks horrible with clear snow line. Also we've still got laying snow in the garden of a few CM, but no blue skys and had fog after the last snowfall last week/early this week. Just pointless.

I am looking forward to a complete pasting or a lovely early mild spring, and hopefully in March get some lovely warm rain to wam the soils up. I think I may go chart hunting and find some lovely spring weather charts to post.

[SnowObsessor90]

The quality of snow this winter has been awful. At times only on high hills and lower in the hills just green - looks horrible with clear snow line. Also we've still got laying snow in the garden of a few CM, but no blue skys and had fog after the last snowfall last week/early this week. Just pointless.

I am looking forward to a complete pasting or a lovely early mild spring, and hopefully in March get some lovely warm rain to wam the soils up. I think I may go chart hunting and find some lovely spring weather charts to post.

Spring or autumnal weather just doesn't wet my appetite seeing that's just about all we seem to get all year round in this part of the world.

Sorry but if you're trying to use that to help raise spirits then it simply isn't going to work, not in this camp anyway.

Edited February 10, 2012 by Anonymous21

[pip22]

I am looking forward to a complete pasting or a lovely early mild spring, and hopefully in March get some lovely warm rain to wam the soils up. I think I may go chart hunting and find some lovely spring weather charts to post.

heres the forecast for mild weather for you. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120210

[jpwild]

I want double digit figures

[snowingtequila]

Of course fi, and a millions things can change, but nice to see anyway. Trends not specifics we're looking for and a nice mild trend is developing.

It's better than cherry picking perfect easterly perturbations (lol) in the model thread that don't materialize.

A trend? If you see someone wearing their jumper back to front do you do the same, seeing it as a new trend?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

heres the forecast for mild weather for you. http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20120210

does look awfully wet next week I fear for my neck of the woods, could be rain all week through cheshire gap, would rather have boxing day 2011 dry bartlett type stuff

[jpwild]

What I said is no worse than people getting excited about specific cold perturbations/ensembles. Saw posts in model threads dedicated to cold perturbations/ensembles, and how many of them came out exactly correct?

[cheshire snow]

heres the forecast for mild weather for you. http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20120210

And the bad news that is taken from the GFS 0z every morning,could show country wide snow tomorrow LOL

C.S

[chris78]

What I said is no worse than people getting excited about specific cold perturbations/ensembles. Saw posts in model threads dedicated to cold perturbations/ensembles, and how many of them came out exactly correct?

I have no problem with people ramping a mild early spring......i love cold and snow...but if we get a warm late feb and march (even if its a bit wet) that's fine too....(but i do have a vested interest, greenhouses and poly-tunnels are more productive).

[AutumnMists]

I have no problem with people ramping a mild early spring......i love cold and snow...but if we get a warm late feb and march (even if its a bit wet) that's fine too....(but i do have a vested interest, greenhouses and poly-tunnels are more productive).

The concept of what Spring will bring has been very 'untalked' about recently of course ...Could March be the coldest month of the year? For example ... take March 12th 2005 (widespread snow), or 21st March 2008 (white Easter) or 6th April 2008 (Localized northern regions snow) ... We have seen plenty of times where March has bought some freezing weather.

The last few years have perhaps bought an 'early Spring' one may say ... however this year so far has been very different to the last few ... so perhaps the concept of a cold March and a 'Late' start to Spring may be in the picture again.

[Liam J]

Well the last few days have been thoroughly miserable under grey skies with misty and damp conditions. Certainly felt like we've gone backwards to the dark days of early January. Temperatures ranging between 2-3c by day and around 1-2c overnight.

Really fed up of this mucky weather now, Roll on spring warmth I'd rather this winter packed it's bags and left now!

Edited February 10, 2012 by Liam J

[martinj2]

nice chart for what was once a reasonably reliable timeframe. see what it shows next Tue or Wed before getting excited I think.

....nice

[feb1991blizzard]

The concept of what Spring will bring has been very 'untalked' about recently of course ...Could March be the coldest month of the year? For example ... take March 12th 2005 (widespread snow), or 21st March 2008 (white Easter) or 6th April 2008 (Localized northern regions snow) ... We have seen plenty of times where March has bought some freezing weather.

The last few years have perhaps bought an 'early Spring' one may say ... however this year so far has been very different to the last few ... so perhaps the concept of a cold March and a 'Late' start to Spring may be in the picture again.

I would be over the moon if it was, the current Feb CET is running around 0c, now it certainly looks like warming up a little but not looking like very mild. no matter what synoptics veryfy, if the high limpets itself to the west of us or over us then any recovery of daytime temps would be offset by below zero temps at night, if the high ridges into Greenland in about 8 days time (very unlikely though it is) then you dont need me to say what the temps will be like, the other option (zonality) is likely to be of the cold sort so the CET for feb is likely now to be below my 3c estimate both in the monthly competition and my winter forecast, or certainly no more than it anyway, so therefore to achieve less than that for March, there would more than likely have to be some Northerlies along the way, and Northerlies in March means convective snowfall inland, rather than the wishbone effect, so i would hazard a guess that March would be an absolute stonker if it ended up the coldest month of the year so lets hope.

[Bartlett Low]

I've gotta say and I doubt i'm the onIy one - C.E.T - CBBC - basically could'nt give a damn for "below average" statistics. Means nothing at all. Surface conditions and events the only importance.