North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 8

[Backtrack]

Anything can happen, the law of probability states that if you threw a box of matches, there is a probability of them making the exact form of the eiffell tower. BT ramp away

Polar low?

[AutumnMists]

Mehh - suppose in all this weekends possible cold snap will be nothing really. (Except perhaps an absolutely beautiful walk on Saddleworth Moor on Sunday morning which could have a slight dusting of snow or frost).

Anyway - heading into the weekend of the 24th and we could see some generally average or mild daytime temps, although in turn some seasonable night temps of around freezing. (GFS)

Still looking hopeful for the average/mild temps winding down a little for the turn of the month.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wouldnt be surprised to see another half hearted northerly toppler 25-26 Feb, models kind of flirting with it, and who knows, another one 3-4 march

Edited February 16, 2012 by snow? norfolk n chance

[pip22]

John Hammond just messed up his microphone while on live, so funny.

[cheshire snow]

John Hammond just messed up his microphone while on live, so funny.

Perhaps some one told him in his ear a polar low was heading to NW England

C.S

[Luke McDonnell]

Hi,

Is it possible that I could see a covering of snow this weekend? I think it is about time we saw a covering of snow here in Liverpool as we haven't had much if any snow since December before Christmas - I am even dreaming of snow being on the ground now considering how rare it has become. It seems to have become so rare this winter that I could even try to use snow on the ground as a cue to lucidity during my dreams (maybe OT but has anyone here ever had a "lucid" dream - that is a dream that you are actually aware that you are dreaming and can sometimes manipulate the course of the dream! I have had a few myself). Anyway coming back to the snow wasn't the April 2008 snowfall from a similar setup - with a cold front pushing down from the north (it was a Northerly I think) and rain turning to snow. Remember that delivered settling snow in April (when the sun is stronger and the days are longer) and in Liverpool (where it can be difficult to get snow at the best of times!) so surely we should be in with a chance considering it is still February - I think the uppers arouns -9 are similar to the April 2008 event not 100% sure can anyone correct me on that - just getting a bit impatient for snow now if we got snow on the ground just for 1 day I will now be happy.L

Luke

[AutumnMists]

wouldnt be surprised to see another half hearted northerly toppler 25-26 Feb, models kind of flirting with it, and who knows, another one 3-4 march

Just noticed that on the models too ... certainly something to ponder about. Some extreme uncertainty too it though!

One thing that does look perhaps a little more likely is the night time low's for the last week of February and the beginning of March until the model end; some decent agreement and consistency supports the prospects of seasonably cold nights of around freezing temperatures ... hopefully bringing some good frosts at least. Mixed readings for daytime temps

Edited February 16, 2012 by hedgehog4

[cheshire snow]

Hi Luke and welcome to the Forum

Reference weekend everything says we should see snow over the weekend

Uppers are cold enough,DP are low enought,temps will drop rapidly during shower,s

We just need the PPN

C.S

[AutumnMists]

Hi Luke and welcome to the Forum

Reference weekend everything says we should see snow over the weekend

Uppers are cold enough,DP are low enought,temps will drop rapidly during shower,s

We just need the PPN

C.S

Met going for snow for me on Sunday night (surprisingly).

Just my luck! I knew any snow wouldn't last that long ... but I didn't know it won't even be awake for it!

Anyway still plenty of time for change

[UV-RAY]

Hi Luke and welcome to the Forum

Reference weekend everything says we should see snow over the weekend

Uppers are cold enough,DP are low enought,temps will drop rapidly during shower,s

We just need the PPN

C.S

The cynic in me says there lyes the problem, but I feel quite confident about our region seeing snow.

[Luke McDonnell]

Reference the April 2008 Northerly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html (can't seem to copy and paste these charts) and go to 6th April 2008 - looking at the 850 temp profiles then it seems similar - with the -10 850 line down to Northern England and the -5 line down to the South Coast - and remember this delivered lowland lying snow including Liverpool in April - as I said in my previous post if April 2008 delivered, the coming set up should certainly deliver something providing we get the preciptiation - even though this is a toppler it is quite a potent one so fingers crossed. If we get the snow, it should lay around for longer than April 2008 as the sun was of course stonger then - hence most of the snow here melted by lunchtime.

BTW my previous username was mcdonnellluke - I signed in under a new name as I have got a new pc and a new e-mail account.

Luke

[AutumnMists]

Reference the April 2008 Northerly

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html (can't seem to copy and paste these charts) and go to 6th April 2008 - looking at the 850 temp profiles then it seems similar - with the -10 850 line down to Northern England and the -5 line down to the South Coast - and remember this delivered lowland lying snow including Liverpool in April - as I said in my previous post if April 2008 delivered, the coming set up should certainly deliver something providing we get the preciptiation - even though this is a toppler it is quite a potent one so fingers crossed. If we get the snow, it should lay around for longer than April 2008 as the sun was of course stonger then - hence most of the snow here melted by lunchtime.

Luke

Thanks very much for the information. I would have thought this weekend will be just about comparable to April 8th 2008 ... with at best an almost full day snow cover on Sunday as apposed to half a day.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Reference the April 2008 Northerly

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html (can't seem to copy and paste these charts) and go to 6th April 2008 - looking at the 850 temp profiles then it seems similar - with the -10 850 line down to Northern England and the -5 line down to the South Coast - and remember this delivered lowland lying snow including Liverpool in April - as I said in my previous post if April 2008 delivered, the coming set up should certainly deliver something providing we get the preciptiation - even though this is a toppler it is quite a potent one so fingers crossed. If we get the snow, it should lay around for longer than April 2008 as the sun was of course stonger then - hence most of the snow here melted by lunchtime.

BTW my previous username was mcdonnellluke - I signed in under a new name as I have got a new pc and a new e-mail account.

Luke

Another weekend northerly, was a classic that, 6th April 2008

[johnwirral]

Snow streamer heading south on last chart of the NAE?

[SparkleS]

John Hammond just messed up his microphone while on live, so funny.

Lol i saw part of that too, i asked dad what was wrong with the telly, sounded echoey and not right lol, and after dad fiddling around with the remote lol, john goes and apologies for his microphone!

[SparkleS]

Hi,

Is it possible that I could see a covering of snow this weekend? I think it is about time we saw a covering of snow here in Liverpool as we haven't had much if any snow since December before Christmas - I am even dreaming of snow being on the ground now considering how rare it has become. It seems to have become so rare this winter that I could even try to use snow on the ground as a cue to lucidity during my dreams (maybe OT but has anyone here ever had a "lucid" dream - that is a dream that you are actually aware that you are dreaming and can sometimes manipulate the course of the dream! I have had a few myself). Anyway coming back to the snow wasn't the April 2008 snowfall from a similar setup - with a cold front pushing down from the north (it was a Northerly I think) and rain turning to snow. Remember that delivered settling snow in April (when the sun is stronger and the days are longer) and in Liverpool

(where it can be difficult to get snow at the best of times!) so surely we should be in with a chance

considering it is still February - I think the uppers arouns -9 are similar to the April 2008 event not 100%

sure can anyone correct me on that - just getting a bit impatient for snow now if we got snow on the

ground just for 1 day I will now be happy.L

Yep ive done that many a time with dreams".....good init

Luke

[damianslaw]

Prospects very promising this weekend for low level snowfall across the region provided of course we get the precipitation. Factors in our favour include NW/WNW wind = convection off the Irish Sea, favourable uppers of around -7/-8 degrees - nothing marginal about them and favourable dew points thanks to the polar air, any showers that do develop will easily be of snow thanks to evaporative cooling. I'm not saying anything major - but some places could wake up to a white blanket sunday morning if they are lucky. Certainly high ground above 300m will see some back edge snow from the occlusion.

The models won't pick up on any trough action until the very near timescale.

Its such a pity we have the azores high knocking on our heels - if only it was a 100-200 miles further west we would have been looking at a very potent northerly with enough time for trough disruption and -10 uppers, not meant to be.. maybe next time..

[Backtrack]

Prospects very promising this weekend for low level snowfall across the region provided of course we get the precipitation. Factors in our favour include NW/WNW wind = convection off the Irish Sea, favourable uppers of around -7/-8 degrees - nothing marginal about them and favourable dew points thanks to the polar air, any showers that do develop will easily be of snow thanks to evaporative cooling. I'm not saying anything major - but some places could wake up to a white blanket sunday morning if they are lucky. Certainly high ground above 300m will see some back edge snow from the occlusion.

The models won't pick up on any trough action until the very near timescale.

Its such a pity we have the azores high knocking on our heels - if only it was a 100-200 miles further west we would have been looking at a very potent northerly with enough time for trough disruption and -10 uppers, not meant to be.. maybe next time..

Good post Damian. I'd agree with everything that's said here.

Such a shame the models prog 5C daytime temperatures on both Saturday & Sunday. It's looking likely that evaporative cooling will have to be very strong to allow snow to settle, those temperatures are simply too warm to support low level laying snow for more than half an hour or so in between showers.

Really is a shame they're going to be so much on the mild side - we could of been looking at a great couple of days. But hey! Even if we do miss out, those areas that do get snow will have to see it melt by Monday afternoon.

[Luke McDonnell]

Good post Damian. I'd agree with everything that's said here.

Such a shame the models prog 5C daytime temperatures on both Saturday & Sunday. It's looking likely that evaporative cooling will have to be very strong to allow snow to settle, those temperatures are simply too warm to support low level laying snow for more than half an hour or so in between showers.

Really is a shame they're going to be so much on the mild side - we could of been looking at a great couple of days. But hey! Even if we do miss out, those areas that do get snow will have to see it melt by Monday afternoon.

But they are the maximum daytime temperatures - and if we get the precipitation of a night then surely it's game on - if it falls on Saturday night/early Sunday morning we should get lying snow surely - remember last December when we got snow settling in the daytime? from a more marginal situation than this and with less favourable uppers too so it could be possible even of a day.

Luke

[Backtrack]

But they are the maximum daytime temperatures - and if we get the precipitation of a night then surely it's game on - if it falls on Saturday night/early Sunday morning we should get lying snow surely - remember last December when we got snow settling in the daytime? from a more marginal situation than this and with less favourable uppers too so it could be possible even of a day.

Luke

They're actually the minimum daytime temperatures.

Night time precipitation seems to lack the 'oomf' that it has in the day - likely from solar heating. But yes, generally, anything that falls at night will lay around a lot longer.

We need evaporative cooling to go all out. It needs to be strong enough to sustain a cool air temperature.

Why the new account btw? You could of just changed your name!

[pip22]

According to Carol Kirkwood theres gonna be snow over hills of north-west england,

Saturday night into Sunday. Game Over?

[cheshire snow]

According to Carol Kirkwood theres gonna be snow over hills of north-west england,

Saturday night into Sunday. Game Over?

according to meto sleet/snow showers sat night then dry Sunday

C.S

[shadowfax]

Have you noticed how the bbc weather forecast just skirt over Saturday night/Sunday morning for the Northwest in particular, it's like that time doesn't exist. They must be really unsure what is happening. Carol Kirkwood did say something but there was nothing on the graphics at all!

[Chess01]

Met o are giving snow for sunday night in stoke

[davacr123]

Rain clearing southeast as much brighter and sunnier conditions spread from the north. Some sleet and snow showers developing, these turning more frequent during the evening. Breezy and feeling colder. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Updated: 0406 on Fri 17 Feb 2012

Sleet and snow showers overnight into Sunday, but most places having a dry, sunny and cold day. Turning milder and windier next week with outbreaks of rain at times.

Updated: 0406 on Fri 17 Feb 2012

This from metoffice outlook today for sat going into Sunday for northwest England but strange that there is still only a warning out for Scotland :-/