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Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Here`s a brand new thread in time to discuss the 12z outputs.

Will they continue to show a warm up and a hint of Spring later this week?

Anyway here we go.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Looking at the mean heights from the 00z ECM/GFS runs and it`s clear to see how we seem to be entrenched into a zonal pattern.

post-2026-0-94499900-1329666645_thumb.gi

Persistent modelling of those low heights to our north and the ever present Azores High.

Edited by phil n.warks.
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Like the analysis Phil, the outcome sadly familiar, more interest in projecting further forward now into how Spring like early March may become verusu hints of Cold incursions..

I think it is fair to say that this winter has completely exhausted/exasperated those looking for cold via the slow evolution of any meaningful pattern change and the stubborn nature of meaningful synoptics to move from FI forward...

A winter in transition from the previous 2 - we all live and learn..

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Like the analysis Phil, the outcome sadly familiar, more interest in projecting further forward now into how Spring like early March may become verusu hints of Cold incursions..

I think it is fair to say that this winter has completely exhausted/exasperated those looking for cold via the slow evolution of any meaningful pattern change and the stubborn nature of meaningful synoptics to move from FI forward...

A winter in transition from the previous 2 - we all live and learn..

Yes this Winter has been frustrating for cold seekers much of the time-- apart from the 2 weeks of cold blocking from the Siberian ridge earlier this month.Much of this mainly affected the more southern and eastern areas.

It does seem we will see official Winter end on the milder side with the south possibly becoming exceptionally mild later this week as a large sector of Tropical maritime air spreads over the UK.

post-2026-0-28360300-1329668165_thumb.pn post-2026-0-66836800-1329668278_thumb.pn

However not everywhere will be bright as western and north western coastal areas and hills could see a lot of cloud and drizzly rain at times.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Like the analysis Phil, the outcome sadly familiar, more interest in projecting further forward now into how Spring like early March may become verusu hints of Cold incursions..

I think it is fair to say that this winter has completely exhausted/exasperated those looking for cold via the slow evolution of any meaningful pattern change and the stubborn nature of meaningful synoptics to move from FI forward...

A winter in transition from the previous 2 - we all live and learn..

If there was such a thing as height anomaly chart for January and February combined - and perhaps all winter as an average, I think there would be three major height anomalies dominating the NE Atlantic/Europe:

1. +ve anomaly extending from Azores into SW Europe

2. -ve anomaly over Greenland

3. +ve height anomaly across NW Russia

These anomalies have in varying degrees affected us by shifting around a bit, the Russian high extending west recently - bringing cold air to much of mainland Europe and to southern central and eastern areas of the UK. But the Azores ridge has extended eastwards too dominating much of Europe's weather through December and January and the Greenland Vortex has been pretty dominant all winter (no +ve anomaly all winter?) - bringing unsettled westerlies to northern Europe and their influence was still being felt across NW Britian during the cold spell which affected elsewhere earlier this month.

What has struck me this winter has been the absence of low heights across SW Europe and any sustained southerly tracking jet across this area all winter, plus lack of any +ve heights over Greenland. We were lucky earlier this month that the Russian high extended as far west as it did, thanks to cold pooling dropping down from Scandinavia across southern Europe.

Looking forward, difficult to see any major pattern change afoot, with a persistent signal for the Azores High and Greenland PV working together to dominate our weather in varying degrees.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Recent GFS show a very very dry picture for England and Wales... as per usual it seems now! Much more average temperatures on the whole, turning very mild mid week, perhaps slightly warm in any sun dare I say but aprt from a little rain shown by the GFS on Wednesday, its High pressure all the way. Whilst this is one of the more quiter Atlantic periods, Id usually expect some Low pressure in FI but nope, its being consistent in suggesting a dry and mostly mild outlook. Similar charts to last spring in this sense!

Unless a dramatic shift happens, I really do see drought a serious possibility this summer for the Midlands, East and SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The low res part of the GFS shows winds turning more southeasterly which on the face of in should suggest falling temperatures. However as it will be early March we see the mild temperatures hangining on a while longer. To see any meaningful cold we would need winds to switch round more to an easterly to benefit from any cold over eastern Europe.

To sum it up, the 12z is a very dry run with temperatures average or above average throughout. Frosts may occur where skies clear at night.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Thanks for all the regular contributors to the strat. thread. They forecast the PV split and the accompanying cold to our latitude. It just shows that even when such events occur it is no panacea for cold over the UK. It transpires that the clues we were given in December-January of a robust jetstream and an omnipresent Azores High was prescient in the UK not being visited by the PV discharge. Its is however another indicator for future forecasting.

GFS (12z) remains consistent with the same pattern till the end of week one in March and at the end of FI it appears the same scenario:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120219;time=12;ext=384;file=h850t850eu;sess=a2154ab2040af147954cd8f5fcfa24ab;

Plenty of cold uppers on our latitude but all too far to our east or west. The strat. warming event for early March, will in all probability be kept at bay from our shores again. That is, based on these charts and the other synoptics that have precluded the cold, so far this winter.

From an IMBY perspective the winter has been poor for cold. Three periods of snow, all dissipated within the following 12 hours, with under ten frosts. Even when we faced the easterly, apart from one breezy cold day, it was a rather slack affair. I do not think it is a trend to milder winters though, I suspect it was just a missed opportunity, with background noises that drowned out our chance of sharing in the European mainland cold.

Well hopefully.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Another great run from GFS tonight with high pressure taking over for the next 2 weeks which keeps all the real cold and low pressure systems well away from us, by the end of FI high pressure begins to build to our East we've been there before last September springs to mind

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3122.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3602.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3842.png

UKMO also builds the high pressure

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Winter is over and spring is now here.

:good:

Edited by Gavin D
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I see the promising UKMO t144 chart from this mornings run has unsurprisingly disappeared and

has now fallen into line with the ECM and GFS models. After such a frustrating winter for all us

snow geese March can not be any worse than what we have had to endure for the best part of the

last three months.

Summersnow I do believe your last post in the previous thread is very misleading and inaccurate

regarding the Gulf Stream. I do not intend to offend in any way I am just saying.

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

Another great run from GFS tonight with high pressure taking over for the next 2 weeks which keeps all the real cold and low pressure systems well away from us, by the end of FI high pressure begins to build to our East we've been there before last September springs to mind

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3122.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3602.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3842.png

UKMO also builds the high pressure

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Winter is over and spring is now here.

:good:

I like all weather. Not so keen if it is a bit bland as it seems this week. However, I find this post very annoying and think it sets out to wind people up. Post your charts by all means but can't you leave out your emotive response. Particularly as most of the charts you post leave me under mild drizzle.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Yes, latest runs all look very poor for anyone seeking a late taste of Winter.

Totally agree with CC, 3 months of utter rubbish.

Our friends in parts of England/Wales would be thinking the same had those Atlantic fronts not come up against the very cold Continental air.

It really has been a dire Winter though if you look back throughout December and January.

I expect a March of 2 halves, early spring warmth and then a wintry shock for all...

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Another great run from GFS tonight with high pressure taking over for the next 2 weeks which keeps all the real cold and low pressure systems well away from us, by the end of FI high pressure begins to build to our East we've been there before last September springs to mind

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3122.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3602.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3842.png

UKMO also builds the high pressure

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Winter is over and spring is now here.

:good:

If tonights GFS/UKMO charts verify it spells pretty bad news to our farmers in the east and south east of England as they desperatly need the rain. The Azores high has hung around for the best part of 6 months now and continues to stop the usual conveyor belt of weather systems affecting this part of the British Isles. If this continues then half the country will be in severe drought conditions. I see your point that the average Joe prefers sunshine to rain, I just feel for those farmers and gardeners that are praying for rain.

Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

If there was such a thing as height anomaly chart for January and February combined - and perhaps all winter as an average, I think there would be three major height anomalies dominating the NE Atlantic/Europe:

1. +ve anomaly extending from Azores into SW Europe

2. -ve anomaly over Greenland

3. +ve height anomaly across NW Russia

Pressure anomaly chart for winter so far is pretty much what you said.

That azores high has to crack sooner or later!

Edited by Cloud 10
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Again the GFS showing some nice warm sunny days through next week, we could have record breaking temps in the South.

While the far North stops unsettled with rain at times, and a little warmer than of late.

gfs-1-96.png?12

gfs-0-102.png?12

The GFS&CFS still continue with a much colder/blocked theme at the turn of the month.

cfs-0-324.png?00

gfs-1-276.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Pressure anomaly chart for winter so far is pretty much what you said.

That azores high has to crack sooner or later!

Combined with these says it all really.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

What really strikes me about this winter from the model output perspective is the sheer lack of cold runs to discuss even in F.I. We had that spell with the Siberian HP but lets be fair only a few runs showed a bitter convective E,ly.

We did see the AO drop into negative values and the warming in the stratosphere was certainly the cause. However if we go back and read some of the posts referring to the Stratosphere/Teleconnections, then this month has been very disappointing. My own personal view is the SSTS in the Atlantic obviously favoured a positive NAO and this overruled some of the other signals. This is why I constantly say understanding all the variables that dictate our climate is difficult enough but understanding how they interact with each other is even harder.

Still we're not alone because those in the NE of the USA are also bitterly disappointed with the lack of classic noreaster storms and this is also due to the NAO remaining neutral/positive.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I see the ECM comes out with the t144 chart that the UKMO ditched from this mornings run, weird.

The t168 chart looks more promising, iinteresting to see how this plays out.

T192 and normal survice resumed. For a minute there the ECM run had me worried I thought we

might of had something to talk about.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

HP builds far enough north at T168 to allow colder air to filter in off the continent. I doesnt last long as milder air tries to push in from the west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

I see the ECM comes out with the t144 chart that the UKMO ditched from this mornings run, weird.

The t168 chart looks more promising, iinteresting to see how this plays out.

T192 and normal survice resumed. For a minute there the ECM run had me worried I thought we

might of had something to talk about.

Yes, at t168 it did look rather interesting.

ECM1-168.GIF?19-0

Then it all settled down...t192

ECM1-192.GIF?19-0

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

If there was such a thing as height anomaly chart for January and February combined - and perhaps all winter as an average, I think there would be three major height anomalies dominating the NE Atlantic/Europe:

1. +ve anomaly extending from Azores into SW Europe

2. -ve anomaly over Greenland

3. +ve height anomaly across NW Russia

These anomalies have in varying degrees affected us by shifting around a bit, the Russian high extending west recently - bringing cold air to much of mainland Europe and to southern central and eastern areas of the UK. But the Azores ridge has extended eastwards too dominating much of Europe's weather through December and January and the Greenland Vortex has been pretty dominant all winter (no +ve anomaly all winter?) - bringing unsettled westerlies to northern Europe and their influence was still being felt across NW Britian during the cold spell which affected elsewhere earlier this month.

What has struck me this winter has been the absence of low heights across SW Europe and any sustained southerly tracking jet across this area all winter, plus lack of any +ve heights over Greenland. We were lucky earlier this month that the Russian high extended as far west as it did, thanks to cold pooling dropping down from Scandinavia across southern Europe.

Looking forward, difficult to see any major pattern change afoot, with a persistent signal for the Azores High and Greenland PV working together to dominate our weather in varying degrees.

following on from the 00z gefs spreads, the 12z gefs (and the op gfs) are playing with dropping heights to our sw in fi. of course it may well not be a theme tomorrow but seeing as we've seen so little of it this winter, i though it worth a mention.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Quite a contrast from the previous two winter's as well.

2009/10> 2010/11

The (mainly) +ve NAO we have seen over the last few months must surely be on borrowed time.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM briefly offered a little interest at 168hrs but then the northern arm of the jet remembered thats not allowed and rolled back in over the top!

At least my interest levels were raised from zero to the dizzy heights of 3 out of 10!

Unfortunately to get any interest for the UK the pattern needs to be shunted about 1000 miles further north! Overall the output continues to resemble mid winter and not what you'd expect at the end of February, at this rate the PV will be going strong in May only to then implode into a sea of northern blocking which arrives just in time to deliver another summer washout for the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

This coming week will have a north-south split during Monday to Wednesday as high pressure establishes to the south and fronts become slow-moving across the north. Rain will be extensive across most parts of Scotland and northern England tomorrow and, after easing off a little on Tuesday, returning strongly again on Wednesday, but eastern Scotland and north-east England will probably be mostly dry and cloudy. Further south it will be dry with a fair amount of sunshine but most southern parts should cloud over on Tuesday and Wednesday, maybe some sunny intervals hanging on across East Anglia and south-east England. Temperatures will reach 9 to 12C in many areas with cloud cover tending to suppress the maxima.

Wednesday also looks set to have very strong winds across central and northern Britain, possibly touching gale force in exposed areas.

With high pressure inching a bit further northwards on Thursday, eastern parts of both England and Scotland are likely to see some sunshine come through, and with a warm airmass in occupation that's when many of us will be seeing highs well into the teens. The GFS 12Z has pulled away a touch from the exceptional warmth it was showing on earlier runs but it would still give some readings of 15-16C. However, areas bordering the Irish Sea will probably end up with a cloudy drizzly day.

Current outputs suggest that the high pressure will creep further northwards towards the weekend giving most of us dry sunny weather, remaining warm by day, with colder nights, though it is too far out to be certain of how far north the high will get. The ECMWF has the high right on top of us at T+168 as a few posts have already mentioned, but anything snowy looks unlikely before the end of this calendar month.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

My own personal view is the SSTS in the Atlantic obviously favoured a positive NAO and this overruled some of the other signals.

This to me nails the problem or is one of the key factors for this winter.

If you pick reanalysis charts for around mid November 2009 - 2010 - 2011 there are 3 strikingly different patterns. 2010 has a massive pulse of warm SST west of greenland, I would wager this aided the tropospheric blocking and then impacted the Stratosphere via upward warming..(unsure).

To me this Greenland SST pattern is the best explanation of the monster blocked pattern.

The other factor that seems to have filtered in this Winter is the Sea Ice anomaly over the higher latititudes.. not seen this factored in to forecasts but some credence here I think. Finally on the Aurora and solar activity thread Geoff alludes to a diminishing of the Sunspot activity I wonder where this fits also in relation to the Stratosphere..

So

1 ENSO

2 MJO

3 GWO

4 Stratosphere

5 SSTs

6 Sea Ice

7 Solar Activity.

Mash all them analogs and we are getting there.. ! Wish I had a week off to get into the PSD Suite ..

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