Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012

[IDO]

GFS 06z from T96 to T384 high pressure all the way. Starting average temps. but ending 16c+ by 20th March:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120304;time=06;ext=372;file=ukmaxtemp;sess=6b683c10fb970e0c99e66efbb491e22f;

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120304;time=06;ext=372;file=npst850;sess=6b683c10fb970e0c99e66efbb491e22f;

It looks like, based on this run, after this weekend, the south can tick winter off their calendar. The only caveat being, as the 0z was in the cold spectrum of ensembles, the 06z is probably in the mild end, though it does appear that the sun is rising on Spring.

[chionomaniac]

GFS 06z from T96 to T384 high pressure all the way. Starting average temps. but ending 16c+ by 20th March:

http://nwstatic.co.u...e66efbb491e22f;

http://nwstatic.co.u...e66efbb491e22f;

It looks like, based on this run, after this weekend, the south can tick winter off their calendar. The only caveat being, as the 0z was in the cold spectrum of ensembles, the 06z is probably in the mild end, though it does appear that the sun is rising on Spring.

Perhaps I look at things slightly differently, ido, but on the 6Z run I don't see high pressure becoming established until day 6. And I ticked winter off my calendar on the first of March. And to see cold weather in Spring I am looking out of the window today!

Edited March 4, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Frosty.]

GFS 06z becomes very settled under high pressure from 120h http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Yes and i'm looking forward to a spell of above average sunshine and pleasant temperatures soon, out of the 12 weeks of winter we had about 2 weeks that felt like winter (the majority was dross) so i'm pleased the models are now firming up on a fine prolonged and mild spell.

Edited March 4, 2012 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

GFS 06z from T96 to T384 high pressure all the way. Starting average temps. but ending 16c+ by 20th March:

for you do you mean?

On the wider scale the first date you quote T+96 as far as I can see most places according to GFS are in single figure max values, add maybe 2C+ and then just scraping into double figures, most areas other than the south have showers predicted.

Yes by T+120 high pressure is taking over for the southern half of the UK and temperatures are well into double figures for England and Wales although the model suggests some drizzle or light rain around for those areas. But what about Scotland or N Ireland? By T=150 all but the north of Scotland has joined in double figures afternoon values but its hardly predicted to be dry as your post might suggest?

I do so wish that we could have some unbiased comments on what any models shows. By all means make the comment ones' own area looks okay but for newcomers reading and checking your links (I'm afraid I can't download them) it must be a bit mistifying to them?

[IDO]

for you do you mean?

On the wider scale the first date you quote T+96 as far as I can see most places according to GFS are in single figure max values, add maybe 2C+ and then just scraping into double figures, most areas other than the south have showers predicted.

Yes by T+120 high pressure is taking over for the southern half of the UK and temperatures are well into double figures for England and Wales although the model suggests some drizzle or light rain around for those areas. But what about Scotland or N Ireland? By T=150 all but the north of Scotland has joined in double figures afternoon values but its hardly predicted to be dry as your post might suggest?

I do so wish that we could have some unbiased comments on what any models shows. By all means make the comment ones' own area looks okay but for newcomers reading and checking your links (I'm afraid I can't download them) it must be a bit mistifying to them?

Sorry about that. Fair telling off. Yes I was referring to the south. I did mention it in the second paragraph, probably should have been earlier.

GFS Thursday Average temps are very seasonal as I stated ("starting average"):

http://nwstatic.co.u...1b0c08762a8e27;

The whole of the UK isn't under the influence of the HP till T150, but between T96 and then is when it moves over us!

For the record I went through the rain charts on the GFS and there are 2/3 spells of rain in that 12 day period but it is relatively settled for March in the South. Scotland (from T96) is relatively dry (again 2/3 spells) right up to T264, then late in FI they are modelled to get more significant rain. The average monthly rain days in Scotland is around 17 (March) and I suspect that the GFS output tends it to significantly lower than that.

My post was more focused on pointing out the pattern, that is HP influence rather than earlier more zonal output. It is difficult to mention all the specifics in FI. Anyway that was the 06z so it could all be rather inconsequential by the time the 12z rolls out.

Just noted the 06z ensembles and the Op run is, as suspected, at the mild end of the T850's.

However, the HP dominated outlook is getting more support:

MattHugo81

Definite signal evident now within the GFS and EC ENS for pressure to rise towards mid-month heralding settled/spring-like weather...

04/03/2012 14:09

MattHugo81

Latest EC 32 day forecast backs this up with a subsequent rise in temps to 2C to 4C above average by approx mid-March onwards #onetowatch

04/03/2012 14:11

Edited March 4, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z for Wednesday - this could be the last rain fall for a while for many in the drought areas

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn721.png

High pressure quickly builds behind once the LP clears away

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1021.png

This should then set the pattern for the next few weeks if it follows the 06z

[Lewis]

Never say never, but I doubt we'll see any snow until next winter now, i'm pretty confident for my neck of the woods anyhow. You never know though, we did end up with a snowy Easter a few years ago.

Lewis

Shows what I know, currently been snowing for the last 2 hours!

Note to myself *Don't make such bold statements lol.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure dominates GFS 12z tonight build's from 72h fully in charge from 120h

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Looks pleasantly mild for a time tonight

[johnholmes]

a look at the current analysis and how the models fared as I saw it along with a cryptic comment about the Exeter Fax 12z analysis!

thanks to Dundee Uni for a satellite picture

A look at the actual charts for 12z Sunday 4 March when thinking back to what the models have suggested into t.pdf

[Lewis]

High pressure dominates GFS 12z tonight build's from 72h fully in charge from 120h

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Looks pleasantly mild for a time tonight

Pleasantly mild?

Just looked and when there's HP in charge, temperatures of around 12-14c is average for this time of the year, so I would not call it mild.....

It's the first post you've made that has actually shown high pressure for once.

Edited March 4, 2012 by ~SFL~

[Summer Sun]

Pleasantly mild?

Just looked and when there's HP in charge, temperatures of around 12-14c is average for this time of the year, so I would not call it mild.....

It's the first post you've made that has actually shown high pressure for once.

Well 12-14c in any sunshine will fell mild to many up north and we all know how GFS underdoes temps at times so who knows somewhere could see 20c before the month is out.

[Cloud 10]

anyone fancy a shortish hike on the Greenland Ice cap?

As long as i can take my kite.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

[Cheese Rice]

Possibility of another cold shot as we approach mid month. High pressure pushing north and east over Scandinavia. I know this hasn't been the best source for cold of late however with a weakening PV we should have a greater chance of cold weather via an easterly with Atlantic lows have a harder chance of pushing in.

Dates to watch 13th-17th of March.

[coldwinter]

It could also be a cold easter, check the strat thread and look at GP's post. There could also be a chance of a cold shot as above post suggests.

Ryan.

[Cheese Rice]

Possibility of another cold shot as we approach mid month. High pressure pushing north and east over Scandinavia. I know this hasn't been the best source for cold of late however with a weakening PV we should have a greater chance of cold weather via an easterly with Atlantic lows have a harder chance of pushing in.

Dates to watch 13th-17th of March.

Further on from my post earlier the ensembles have just come out and highlight quite well how another severe cold shot may spread into North East Europe advocated west towards Western Europe.

The Ensembles this time point to the high been in a favorable position for cold to spread in from a north easterly quadrant.

Scotland

Kent

Highlighted above are the ensembles picking up on the new trend, notice the cluster on the 16th, a clear divergence with the position of the high. Reflected int he 850 temperatures.

Nearly all members go for the high pushing North East, how far north east remains to be seen. With this situation it's very likely we will see deep cold pushing into Eastern Europe.

This is at the early stages of forecasting so it will take while for the pattern to 'firm up'.

Interesting to note the ECM is quite keen on an arctic high. The GFS doesn't really reflect this yet but if this does occur then it will only help the situation with a possible linkage of the two.

Edited March 4, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Milhouse]

Confidence is building for a renewed area of high pressure to push northwards in time for next weekend and lasting well into the following week going by the ECM. However some of the lesser models less keen on this outcome and maintain low pressure a lot further south preventing any ridge from occurring.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1441.html

[Summer Sun]

Its good to see ECM has joined in with the high pressure rise tonight

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

Edited March 4, 2012 by Gavin D

[reef]

Although its a lot quieter than in winter, it would be appreciated if posts could actually be about the models.

If its spring and or average weather you want to discuss, theres this thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72110-spring-2012/

If its just a one-liner, then it'll be 'filed away' elsewhere

[Milhouse]

ECM ensemble mean supports the general idea of high rises from the south starting to appear on Thursday and building northwards during next weekend before showing signs of slipping away as we go into next week. The upper temperatures showing signs of declining too indicating the chances of some colder continental air being brought into the mix.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning is showing a cool first half of the week with frost at night and showers. Befor a spell of rain pushes South on Wednesday, on a Polar Maritime airflow bringing a spell of snow for the Scottish Highlands and the far North on high ground. By the weekend it looks like Spring proper arrives with some lovely warm weather to be enjoyed by all.

Edited March 5, 2012 by Polar Maritime