Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Just dealing with the higher resolution part of the GFS it still goes a different route compared to the ECM.

The GFS moves that low to the nw east and allows a weak rodge to develop to the nw, the ECM phases that eastern USA trough with that low to the nw and cuts some energy se'wards before hand with a weakish ridge to the ne.

The agreement today across the models is just with that developing low heading out of the ne USA, after that uncertainty but still its hard to imagine the northern arm of the jet playing ball to deliver anything of note.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just dealing with the higher resolution part of the GFS it still goes a different route compared to the ECM.

The GFS moves that low to the nw east and allows a weak rodge to develop to the nw, the ECM phases that eastern USA trough with that low to the nw and cuts some energy se'wards before hand with a weakish ridge to the ne.

The agreement today across the models is just with that developing low heading out of the ne USA, after that uncertainty but still its hard to imagine the northern arm of the jet playing ball to deliver anything of note.

The north sea trough day 7 is picked by the ECM spreads, though a half day earlier. The undercutting theme was picked on sun 00 gefs and has been repeating on the ncep suite ever since. ECM doesn't seem interested yet. Solid on the ridge to our sw.

Edited by bluearmy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Hehe , you admitted you got it wrong last Week , I wonder if you will be wrong again lol. Every Model has a wobble from time to time maybe the JH Long range is going through one of these right now . :rofl: So you see no Undercutting that will enable the High to move further North ? It Seems to me with low pressure keep being shown to our SW it may be a possibility .

no I don't and as always if I'm wrong I'll admit it-no problem there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I remember the snow in central Leeds in March 2006 as I was there- one bout from snow showers that merged into longer spells of snow on the 3rd (from a northerly) and then the frontal snowfalls on the 12th, with a fair number of snow showers off the North Sea via a sluggish easterly during the 11th-16th.

However, nothing like that looks particularly likely in the near future. The GFS does show a northerly outbreak starting around T+168 but it doesn't have support from the other models and it is a pretty half-hearted thing as there is no cold air nearby to tap into. After mostly cloudy weather up until Wednesday with some rain away from the southern half of England, Thursday continues to look exceptionally warm with some sunshine coming through in central and eastern areas, and then there is growing support for the high pressure to ridge northwards bringing sunnier drier weather, warm days and chilly nights. However there is divergence on how long the high will last- the ECMWF operational run and ensemble mean just show a two-day ridge into the southern half of the country while GFS/UKMO hint at something longer-lasting. As John implied some short-lived northerlies are possible but nothing major with high pressure still predisposed to affect the south-west and low pressure dominant to the north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 00z has backed away from it's ultra anticyclonic 12z last night and now looks more changeable/unsettled in comparison, the Gfs 06z does have a few spells of persistent high pressure but punctuated by much more unsettled and windy weather, especially later in FI where there are some vigorous depressions sweeping into the uk. The 6z shows a very mild spell this week but rather windy and cloudy with some rain although the rain mostly further north or north west and the south and east with more shelter will see some sunshine at times and temps into the 16-18c range on thurs/fri. The weekend looks cooler but also more anticyclonic with frost but then the 6z is showing a depression pushing southeast with colder air following but the uppers don't look as cold as the weekend just gone, but time for upgrades.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

I see nothing in the latest teleconnections to suggest Northern blocking at the end of the month. The lastest 500mb mean from ECM/GFS and CPC all currently show continuing HP to the South / South West of the UK with LP to the North of the UK. NAO nor AO are forecast to go negative anytime soon.

A continuation of the current pattern is likely for at least the next 7-10 days.

I will be planning my veg planting this coming weekend:good:

Edited by reef
Text too small
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Interesting to see the GFS, 18z, 00z and now the 06z run all show a blocking trend starting around the 144 hour mark. NOGAPS also seems keen on this and the CFS model seems keen as well and it has for a few days now however I don't have much hope in it happening just yet not until the ECM and UKMO start to agree. Anyway at least we have some sort of hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Big difference between hopecasting and discussing the model output which is what this thread is all about.

I agree TEITS, all I have read today is model discussion. I don't think anyone is blatantly hopecasting but we are all have different preferences which adds colour to this thread. As for the latest models, the next few days look rather cloudy and breezy with patchy rain as weak fronts become draped over the uk but then thurs/fri bring more of a swly which pumps very mild or warm air across britain with 16-18c likely but then a bit colder by the weekend with high pressure sat on top of the BI with sunny days and overnight frosts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Looks like a trend starting here guys, the 12z has most of the country in -5c uppers and a northerly by sunday. Huge differences at t144.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Short term high pressure dominates into next week its open for debate though high pressure is shown tonight to say to 240h (1st March) beyond that who knows though a some deep LP systems are showing GFS FI tonight it will most likely be gone by tonight

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3601.png

Edited by Gavin D
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Weak toppler shown for the weekend, wuth cold enough uppers for some snow in the far north of Scotland again. Its looking fairly likely we'll see a cool high next week with frosty nights and reasonably pleasant days as most of the models are leaning towards this.

Edited by Alza 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS and UKMO handle that eastern USA trough differently and also low pressure to the nw of the UK, I'd wait to see which way the ECM goes as that had a different view this morning with some energy cutting se towards the UK.

Both the GFS and UKMO stick to their morning trends so they both can't be right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Gavin d . im really stuggling to understand you post

This week is high pressure dominated with very mild temperatures at times

Next week is open for debate - either high pressure will stay or low pressure and colder weather will return.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS is still showing some nice warm Springlike weather for the end of the week, Before temps drop back to more average or below next week with PM air over the uk it will feel much cooler, with snow possible in the North and maybe the East coast.

Beyond is still showing a blocked pattern at the turn of the month, with a very cold N showing.

gfs-0-84.png?12

gfs-0-156.png?12

gfs-1-372.png?12

gfs-0-360.png?12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

ZZZZZZZ! Thats my thoughts regarding the ECM upto 192hrs, the amplified eastern USA trough flattens out and delivers a level of boredom in tune with most of the winter so far!

The GFS continues to make an effort at trying to spur my cognitive function into life but fails as the northern arm of the jet flattens the high out, the UKMO looks similar to the ECM although it takes longer to develop that eastern USA low.

Either way it looks a very mundane picture with limpet high to the south and weak low pressure to the north, drab uneventful apart from highish temps this week, hopefully the ECM ensembles have some options that don't induce sleep!

A sudden burst of excitement at 216hrs as that troughing digs further south into the Atlantic!

At 240hrs the ECM finally decides to bring some interest with the classic pre easterly signature of digging trough in the mid Atlantic and pressure would rise to the east , shame its at 240hrs, no doubt that will implode by tomorrow!

Edited by nick sussex
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

The GFS is still showing some nice warm Springlike weather for the end of the week, Before temps drop back to more average or below next week with PM air over the uk it will feel much cooler, with snow possible in the North and maybe the East coast.

What nonsense some people come up with the fun is just about to begin, look how quickly the 850 drop of again quicker than they took to warm up even (based on the current ensembles)

the trouble is that the 3 better performing models don't support the GFS northwesterly at the weekend let alone anything beyond that.

Mundane and average/mild is how i see it for the next ten days and a continuation of the southern central rain shield!

Edited by A horse called man
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
ZZZZZZZ! Thats my thoughts regarding the ECM upto 192hrs, the amplified eastern USA trough flattens out and delivers a level of boredom in tune with most of the winter so far! The GFS continues to make an effort at trying to spur my cognitive function into life but fails as the northern arm of the jet flattens the high out, the UKMO looks similar to the ECM although it takes longer to develop that eastern USA low. Either way it looks a very mundane picture with limpet high to the south and weak low pressure to the north, drab uneventful apart from highish temps this week, hopefully the ECM ensembles have some options that don't induce sleep! A sudden burst of excitement at 216hrs as that troughing digs further south into the Atlantic! At 240hrs the ECM finally decides to bring some interest with the classic pre easterly signature of digging trough in the mid Atlantic and pressure would rise to the east , shame its at 240hrs, no doubt that will implode by tomorrow!

cheer up nick it might never happen, the models are showing a very warm spell later in the week but very wet in the far north on wed/thurs but then after the heat, the weather looks a little colder at the weekend and into next week with high pressure around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

ZZZZZZZ! Thats my thoughts regarding the ECM upto 192hrs, the amplified eastern USA trough flattens out and delivers a level of boredom in tune with most of the winter so far!

The GFS continues to make an effort at trying to spur my cognitive function into life but fails

Either way it looks a very mundane picture with limpet high to the south and weak low pressure to the north, drab uneventful apart from highish temps this week, hopefully the ECM ensembles have some options that don't induce sleep!

no doubt that will implode by tomorrow!

Lol Nick,i think you need to phone the net-weather helpline. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...