Melting Arctic Link To Cold, Snowy Uk Winters

[DR Hosking]

BBC report on Melting Arctic link to cold, snowy UK winters

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17143269

[Scorcher]

I take it this didn't apply this year then??

[Methuselah]

It certainly makes sense, anyway??

[chionomaniac]

Yes, the last two months of last winter and the first six weeks of this winter were totally overridden by the stratosphere - so not a study I would put too much faith in. The theory is technically correct, but in application the impact would be as much as pedal bike compared to a motorbike when needing to get from A to B.

[4wd]

But look what happened in Europe, the basic pattern was again far colder/snowier than normal at lower latitudes.

Something important is happening here and it wasn't predicted - negative feedback.

[Weather-history]

Do you know what these reports remind me of? Those medical studies that say that too much of this is bad for you, a glass of this keeps heart disease at bay, They are that many of them that they all seem to cancel each other out! Instead of informing the public, people become fed up with them because they are all contrary!

Didn't we have someone a couple of years ago say that snowy winters were going to become rarer and rarer? I can't remember his name but he came across as a bit of a plonker because he made this comment duirng the middle of winter 2009-10.

Edited February 28, 2012 by Mr_Data

[summersnow]

This is all a bit odd really. So, now what we're being told is that Global Warming means colder winters!! Just a few years ago, I remember the rhetoric being very different! And what is causing the Arctic to shrink in summer anyway? OK, if it's global warming, why is the same not true of Antarctica, where sea ice has been on an increasing trend for decades? Don't believe the media hype about massive ice shelves breaking away from Antartica being to do with global warming, because it has always happened. Look instead at the NSIDC website and you will see very clearly that this summer in Antarctica, sea ice is currently running above the mean for 1979-2000, while the Arctic shows the opposite. This has been the case now for a long time.

There are a great many reasons as to why the Arctic might be melting more quickly in the summer months and global warming is just one possible explanation of many. To suggest however, that global warming is now causing colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere seems to me to be desperation on the part of scientists to explain at all costs why every single climatic change that we see must be attributed to global warming - what nonsense!

Just think about it for a minutel. The big problem we are told is that less ice means less albedo so less ice to relflect light & heat from the sun. But how strong is the arctic sun even in summer? Yes, there's also a little less sea ice in winter but of course, there's no sun at those latitudes in winter, so the albedo thing is irrelelevant. What we do have however, is much larger parts of Asia and North America covered in snow until late spring, which way more than compensates for the loss of albedo from the Arctic ocean. Snow cover relflects radiation just as well as arctic ice after all.

For me, a much more rational explanation is that we are seeing a natural cycle, probably driven ultimately by the sun and more directly by the oceans. More snow cover over continental masses will eventually cool the northern hemisphere enough for the arctic to recover its sea ice at which point the cycle will probably start again. We are more likely now to see a period of relative cooling, roughly equivalent to the late 20th Century warming, which has effectively plateaued for the last decade. Now beginning the slide off the other side of that plateau, what can we expect in the next 20 years? Time will tell!

[Coast]

A more balanced view in the New Scientist today:

But while Liu's research strengthens the case for a strong link between sea ice and the negative Arctic oscillations that encourage extreme winters, Scaife and others point out that it is just one factor among many. A case in point, this winter started out quite mild. The Arctic oscillation only flipped into a negative phase in mid-January, triggering cold spells that killed hundreds of people in eastern Europe and Asia. This suggests other factors are at play.

James Overland of the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle believes the weather we have seen in the past few months is largely down to natural variations. "There are other factors besides sea-ice anomalies that influence winter snowfall," agrees Liu. They include the El Niño/La Niña cycle and the roughly-decadal variations in the solar activity. El Niño and solar minima both bring cold winters.

Balancing act

The big challenge now is to integrate everything we know about the different factors into one big model, to figure out how they all play out together. "If it were down to the sun alone, we would be heading from colder winters to milder ones on average," says Scaife – because solar activity is on the rise right now.

But Liu's results show that decrease in Arctic ice cover will have the opposite effect. How the two factors will balance out in the short term is impossible to say.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21521-melting-sea-ice-could-trigger-colder-winters.html

[Dorsetbred]

I'm keeping this report on my interactive video retention device, so that in 2million years when I check again, I can verify if it has really happened or not.

I've contacted a local builder to see about raising my house on 50ft stilts so it will be above either the snowline or water level, he laughed when I told him why, so I gave him the report to read....

Would you like me to call you and tell you which way it went?

[Scorcher]

But look what happened in Europe, the basic pattern was again far colder/snowier than normal at lower latitudes.

Something important is happening here and it wasn't predicted - negative feedback.

So what about the US and Canada then? They are experiencing a record mild winter with barely any serious cold to speak of.

[Aaron]

So what about the US and Canada then? They are experiencing a record mild winter with barely any serious cold to speak of.

And it's also very, very cold in Alaska, where it's also very very snowy.. and when the US experienced a very cold winter last winter, it was very mild in Alaska.. you see the pattern here dont you?

Oh, and Sea Ice in the Bering Strait was at its most extensive for 20 years.. so yeah. Anyway, it's nigh on possible to have an argument with someone who is very biased..

Edited February 28, 2012 by Aaron

[johnholmes]

A more balanced view in the New Scientist today:

http://www.newscient...er-winters.html

yes a sensible comment, and re the post above about so many papers suggesting first one thing then another from equally respected scientists.

We can't ignore the last paper but neither should it be read as the answer to what may or may not be happening. Trying to get a balance is what is required and the input from Scaife from Met Hadley Centre is a sensible approach which should be taken note of.

Its almost impossible for those expert in the climate field to be sure of what is really happening let alone the rest of us who see headlines from one side or the other of the climate discussion area.

[Timmytour]

Hasn't this winter been one of the warmest in the last 350 years?

Always seems to be a case of make the circumstances fit the argument rather than use the circumstances to base the argument upon. Surely the winters we experince for the first few years of this century were almost objectionably mild at a time when the Arctic Ice was supposed to be melting.

Whether or not the earth is warming up and whether this is down directly to man's influence, I don't know. What I'm damned sure about is that we can't do anything about it if it is the case. And I do wonder, if there's a record high in February today as might prove the case, why it's taken 100 years to get there!

We live in a world where people are less and less ready to settle for anything that they don't have an explanation for. The trouble is, such a thirst for knowledge doesn't always make us wiser, it sometimes makes us more gullible.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Do you know what these reports remind me of? Those medical studies that say that too much of this is bad for you, a glass of this keeps heart disease at bay, They are that many of them that they all seem to cancel each other out! Instead of informing the public, people become fed up with them because they are all contrary!

Didn't we have someone a couple of years ago say that snowy winters were going to become rarer and rarer? I can't remember his name but he came across as a bit of a plonker because he made this comment duirng the middle of winter 2009-10.

David Viner, said it ten or so years ago......that went well

BFTP

[Timmytour]

Meant to mention that m theory is that we will be experiencing a period of much colder winters in the next 20 years....assuming we all get beyond 21 Dec this year :-)

This is because i think the earth is heading for a period of substantial volcanic activity which I anticipate will start to ramp up a notch in the next couple of months.

That it my theory, that it is, the theory that I have.

[Gowon]

David Viner, said it ten or so years ago......that went well

BFTP

Im quite sure it was George Moonbat (Monbiot) who had an article in the Guardian about it?

BBC report on Melting Arctic link to cold, snowy UK winters

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-17143269

The BBC just make things up as they go along.

[johnholmes]

The BBC just make things up as they go along.

and what basis is there for that comment based on the link you show please?

Its a publication amongst many and cannot simply be ignored or is that what you would prefer the BBC o do?

[Gowon]

and what basis is there for that comment based on the link you show please?

Its a publication amongst many and cannot simply be ignored or is that what you would prefer the BBC o do?

I suppose your right but I just can't stand the propaganda machine aka the BBC.

[Timmytour]

Im quite sure it was George Moonbat (Monbiot) who had an article in the Guardian about it?

The BBC just make things up as they go along.

The BBC don't make things up.....it's a fair headline based on what the report says. However it is frustrating that they tend to give such reports that fall in line with a general global warming theme, undue prominence when compared to others that don't.

[johnholmes]

The BBC don't make things up.....it's a fair headline based on what the report says. However it is frustrating that they tend to give such reports that fall in line with a general global warming theme, undue prominence when compared to others that don't.

I'd agree on that but then they are not the only media outlet that does this. In fact I can't think of one that does not or that attempts to give a more unbiased view other than articles in scientific journals perhaps?

[Roger J Smith]

This concept is not new -- it existed as the "Simpson hypothesis" before the AGW theory (realizing that there was a form of the AGW theory advanced in the 1920s as well, so before the modern AGW theory that I recall dates to about 1982-83). I heard about the Simpson hypothesis in my education so it must predate 1970 at least. Basically, it holds that all glacial periods are brought about by periods of unusually ice-free conditions in the high arctic leading to increased snowfall in the subarctic and feedback into the atmosphere, rapid expansion of cold and snow regimes. Whether glaciation follows depends on larger scale considerations embedded in the Milankovitch cycles. Even without human activity, we can rule out serious glaciation at present, the worst the climate could produce is a repeat of the LIA (which would be bad enough).

I mentioned on NW the possibility of a rebound effect during the ice-free anomaly of Sept-Oct 2007 and in fact this seemed to develop later in the winter of 2007-08 in parts of China and North America that eventually saw record snowfalls, but the process seems to have been slower in Europe with the signal received 2009-12 (so far) despite the mild winter in Ireland and the western UK, this has clearly been a winter of extremes further east.

The main question to me is whether or not human activity plays a large role, a minor role, or no role whatsoever in this process, but the linkage of the severe winters to earlier and current ice-free anomalies seems like sound science to me. It needs to be kept in mind however that a parallel trend can develop in climate where ice increases in the arctic and winters turn colder further south. So there is no saying that the trends are always inversely proportional, it is more complicated than that.

Personally I think human activity is a minor contributor and not so much in terms of greenhouse gases but more in sooty deposition which has been perhaps the larger of the two human causal factors in arctic ice depletion. This is evident from trends in the Beaufort Sea where temperatures have not fallen enough to account for the observed ice pack shrinkage in recent years, and sooty deposition originating largely from eastern Asia is thought to be the culprit, through changes in albedo on the decaying ice pack (which is usually covered with some snow, this turns darker and melts faster, in sync with regional rises in water temperatures).

Coming at a time of reduced solar activity, this lag between ice extent and land climate hit a particularly volatile feedback signal by 2008-10 and the results were seen in some unusually high amplitude patterns and severe winter outbreaks in both Europe and North America. Snowfall records were set for Washington DC and New York City in the two winters preceding this current mild and snow-free (so far) winter. We also saw record snowfall here in British Columbia in the winter of 2008-09, then last winter it was quite snowy in western Canada's inland regions. This winter snowfall has been above normal only in coastal Alaska and one or two places near the Gulf of St Lawrence.

[Dorsetbred]

This concept is not new -- it existed as the "Simpson hypothesis" before the AGW theory (realizing that there was a form of the AGW theory advanced in the 1920s as well, so before the modern AGW theory that I recall dates to about 1982-83). I heard about the Simpson hypothesis in my education so it must predate 1970 at least. Basically, it holds that all glacial periods are brought about by periods of unusually ice-free conditions in the high arctic leading to increased snowfall in the subarctic and feedback into the atmosphere, rapid expansion of cold and snow regimes. Whether glaciation follows depends on larger scale considerations embedded in the Milankovitch cycles. Even without human activity, we can rule out serious glaciation at present, the worst the climate could produce is a repeat of the LIA (which would be bad enough).

I mentioned on NW the possibility of a rebound effect during the ice-free anomaly of Sept-Oct 2007 and in fact this seemed to develop later in the winter of 2007-08 in parts of China and North America that eventually saw record snowfalls, but the process seems to have been slower in Europe with the signal received 2009-12 (so far) despite the mild winter in Ireland and the western UK, this has clearly been a winter of extremes further east.

The main question to me is whether or not human activity plays a large role, a minor role, or no role whatsoever in this process, but the linkage of the severe winters to earlier and current ice-free anomalies seems like sound science to me. It needs to be kept in mind however that a parallel trend can develop in climate where ice increases in the arctic and winters turn colder further south. So there is no saying that the trends are always inversely proportional, it is more complicated than that.

Personally I think human activity is a minor contributor and not so much in terms of greenhouse gases but more in sooty deposition which has been perhaps the larger of the two human causal factors in arctic ice depletion. This is evident from trends in the Beaufort Sea where temperatures have not fallen enough to account for the observed ice pack shrinkage in recent years, and sooty deposition originating largely from eastern Asia is thought to be the culprit, through changes in albedo on the decaying ice pack (which is usually covered with some snow, this turns darker and melts faster, in sync with regional rises in water temperatures).

Coming at a time of reduced solar activity, this lag between ice extent and land climate hit a particularly volatile feedback signal by 2008-10 and the results were seen in some unusually high amplitude patterns and severe winter outbreaks in both Europe and North America. Snowfall records were set for Washington DC and New York City in the two winters preceding this current mild and snow-free (so far) winter. We also saw record snowfall here in British Columbia in the winter of 2008-09, then last winter it was quite snowy in western Canada's inland regions. This winter snowfall has been above normal only in coastal Alaska and one or two places near the Gulf of St Lawrence.

Some good sound reasoning, like you I find it interesting about the human activity role, and so the debate continues to swing, interesting however in the meantime

[knocker]

This is all a bit odd really. So, now what we're being told is that Global Warming means colder winters!! Just a few years ago, I remember the rhetoric being very different! And what is causing the Arctic to shrink in summer anyway? OK, if it's global warming, why is the same not true of Antarctica, where sea ice has been on an increasing trend for decades?

So I assume you never read the paper on the ozone hole altering weather patterns explaining this?

[4wd]

When was that then, never heard of it.

The usual excuse explanation mumbles something about winds and currents having unimpeded circulation which means weather systems over Antarctica are very isolated from the rest of the planetary system.

Antarctica is very high - not just mountains but depth of ice , it's inconceivable that any significant area will melt,

This great mass of ice and cold air flowing off it will maintain sea ice very well too.

So although the scaremongers like to invoke rising sea levels due to melting Antarctic it just isn't happening and never will.

[knocker]

I did't find the paper I posted but I'll chuck in another.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-04/bas-ias042109.php