The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 7

[A.J]

....and so as we move into March, here's a brand new thread to discuss our region's weather....Will it be a steady progression towards spring warmth, or will the winter of 11-12 have one last hurrah?

Previous thread here --------> http://forum.netweat...6/page__st__700

[BlueHedgehog074]

Expected to wake up to some very, very, very foggy conditions, but woke up to some fairly clear conditions instead, although the sky does have a bit of hazy/mistyness to it. Looking at the latest Met Office reports during the mornming, it seems as though most of the fog has/is stayed to the South and West of the region.

Seems like it could be another mild day ...before colder contions attempt to spill in during the weekend.

[picog]

Any thoughts on the possibility of a bit of the white stuff on Sunday? BBC weather at lunchtime seemed to indicate we might get lucky.

[Staffordshire]

Any thoughts on the possibility of a bit of the white stuff on Sunday? BBC weather at lunchtime seemed to indicate we might get lucky.

Yes certinaly a possibility, ideally we want the low to track a bit further south for a better chance. Anyway looks like some very heavy much needed rain at the moment!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think meto have sunday wrong, low moves through France and no where near us, GFS gives dry night, wet day and then dry night, GFS likely right

[Costa Del Fal]

think meto have sunday wrong, low moves through France and no where near us, GFS gives dry night, wet day and then dry night, GFS likely right

Your only saying that Im sure because its the "Negative" outlook so therefore it must be right. It may indeed be right but Ive seen it before. People automatically assume the worst.

Imo, Channel Lows do not tend to affect the Midlands in the way the GFS paints.

Edited March 2, 2012 by Blizzards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECMWF thankfully goes more with meto, no dartboard low! dont fancy swimming 2.8 miles to town

[A.J]

A pleasant day today with good sunny spells and it felt quite warm in the sunshine....Sunshine was hazy from time to time and what was noticeable during the afternoon into early evening was bands of Ac Floccus appearing in the western skies...I thought it was Ac Cas at first sight, but it was definitely floccus, but nice to see even this early in the spring. I will definitely like to see those cloud formations many more times going into summer as it would mean a stormy summer!

[Costa Del Fal]

A risk of some sleet and snow especially on higher ground for the Midlands on Sunday as it looks increasingly likely some precip will pass over. However it looks like High pressure will be in full charge against next week so very little to alleviate the drought situation.

[conor123]

1c with very heavy precipitation progged over us for once Sunday, could be interesting with the extra elevation here but upper's are marginal as is time of day so will have to see.

[Snowy Easterly]

im not expecting any snow tbh, so there won't be a feeling of a "let down" by me

Edited March 3, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Eugene]

However it looks like High pressure will be in full charge against next week so very little to alleviate the drought situation.

Looks windy and unsettled to me from mid week.

[BlueHedgehog074]

*gets out the blue sky detector* Scanning initiating.... Cloud... cloud... cloud and.......... more cloud. Not even 1mm of blue sky detected, although hopefully it should surrender later to sunshine and perhaps a few showers. That cloud will be sorry.

[cyclonic happiness]

I just hope we get a really prolonged period of heavy rain, it's so needed!

Snow at this time of the year, usually just serves to remind one of how crap winter's been.

[Arnie Pie]

Blue skies breaking through over Birmingham

http://www.brumcam.co.uk/

[conor123]

Shock horror the last minutes downgrades pushing the heavy stuff into the parts of the Midlands which took all the snow last time :lol:

[Barbmac]

Afternoon all! Nice sunny mid-morning here after the expected band of showers went through, currently watching as another band approaches from the west, can see it on the radar, wonder if we'll get any hail out of it?

[TonyH]

"Brumcams finally up and running so check it out and please give me some feed back "

Edited by Arnie Pie, 29 February 2012 - 15:28

Excellent webcam Arnie! Thanks for providing, I am obsessed with weather cams...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

METO & M*tcheck have changed in last few hours to Wet Snow tomorrow

[A.J]

GFS12z significantly upgrades the possibility of snow for almost the entire region tomorrow....interesting indeed

[Arnie Pie]

Cheers tony....it has become obsessive and dare i say it rather addictive,,,,,certainly challenging

I think it's been a bit tits-up today but hopefully back on track now (if only i can stop myself fiddling with the settings we should be alright )

"Brumcams finally up and running so check it out and please give me some feed back "

Edited by Arnie Pie, 29 February 2012 - 15:28

Excellent webcam Arnie! Thanks for providing, I am obsessed with weather cams...

[Arnie Pie]

I've bookmarked this webcam now, so don't take it down. :winky:

Going to be great viewing a storm affecting here from over there lol.

you'll be able to watch that rotating wall cloud over the top of your house

[cyclonic happiness]

You can bet your life now that winter meteologically, is dead, we'll get a shed load of snow tomorrow which won't stick and will just make everyone cross!

[TonyH]

Weather guide Sunday 4th to Saturday 10th March specific to west Wales and the Midlands

Headline: Cold and probably wet Sunday, dry early next week, then changeable with some rain, but mild

Most of us saw some pleasant Spring weather at times last week, and on Friday Ceredigion was the warmest part of the UK, Llanwnnen reaching 15c, some 6c above the early March average. We are not likely to see temperatures as high in the coming week. Some much needed rain probable for the Midlands tomorrow.

Small lows heading for the South-west approaches of the UK are notoriously difficult beasts to forecast. They often contain locally very wet weather, and tend to drag colder air around their northern flanks. Due to margins of error with the modelling of their expected tracks, forecasts are liable to go wrong even a few hours ahead! At this time of the year, if the low tracks across southern England or Wales, then these areas get a very wet spell, perhaps even with some snow eventually, but should the low track a mere hundred miles or so further south over northern France then the much of Wales and the MIdlands would end up with a dry day. So ,let's see how Sunday pans out!

It is exactly this scenario that we are faced with on Sunday (a forecaster's nightmare or was that challenge!).

My stab is that the low will cross the far south of England during Sunday, with heavy rain extending up across south and mid Wales and much of the Midlands. North Wales and the far north Midlands will see a cloudy but mostly dry day, apart from perhaps a little rain at times. It will be a cold, raw day, temperatures reaching just 5 or 6c, and with colder northerly winds digging in behind this feature then the rain may turn to sleet or wet snow during the afternoon, especially over high ground such as the Brecon Beacons and the Cotswolds. Such are the margins of error, that Warwickshire could get anything between 5mm and 20mm of rain tomorrow, the difference between a damp day and a really wet one! The precipitation will probably clear west Wales by mid afternoon, but persists into the evening for Warwickshire.

Sunday night will see clearing skies leading to a ground frost, especially west Wales. The low is close to the east coast on Monday so quite a cold day with a fresh north wind, sunny spells and perhaps a few showers. Temperatures struggling to reach 8c.

Frosty on Monday night, with Tuesday being a pleasant, mostly sunny and dry day, temperatures a bit higher at around 10c. Atlantic fronts bring cloud and rain overnight Tuesday and first thing Wednesday. Brighter Wednesday afternoon with some showers, especially for west Wales, and a cool west wind.

For the end of the week, high pressure is tantalising close to our south- though perhaps not close enough to prevent weak troughs bringing bands of cloud and a little rain at times. So Thursday to Saturday seems breezy and milder but fairly dry, temperatures reaching 11 to 13c with no night frosts.

Model charts here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72646-wales-cymru-spring-weather-discussion/page__st__60

[mackerel sky]

Short term ambiguity always seems to benefit east northants. Whether snow or rain, we sure as hell need it.