Typhoon Pakhar

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 96W has been slowly developing over the last week and has become a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35kts. The storm has some persistant convecton over the well defined LLC and also some formative banding features. Pakhar is in a favourable environment for strengthening with low shear and sea temperatures of around 29C. Pakhar is in a weak steering environment but should begin to head westwards in a day or two as a ridge builds to the north. The ridge will build at the low levels, so as Pakhar strengthens and becomes more vertically deep, the storm should turn northwards. The timing of this turn is uncertain. It is unclear whether Pakhar will turn north off the coast of Vietnam or whether the storm will make landfall on Vietnam first. If the storm doesn't make landfall it may become the seasons first typhoon.

[Konstantinos]

It is too early, isn't it? But I remember Tropical Storm 01 in this region.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=02W&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Somerset Squall]

It is fairly early but the South China Sea is known to support tropical cyclone all year round. A storm like Pakhar is not unheard of.

Pakhar has strengthened to 45kts. However, on latest satellite imagery an eye appears to be forming in the consolidating central dense overcast feature. I think the next JTWC update will indicate an intensity near typhoon (>65kts) status if the eye persists. Pakhar's small size appears to be allowing the storm to rapidly intensify. This is not good news for Vietnam. I think they could be dealing with a much stronger storm than originally anticipated in a few days time.

[Somerset Squall]

Pakhar has become the seasons first typhoon, with the intensity rising to 65kts. The typhoon has a large eye which is gradually clearing out. However, time isn't on Pakhar's side. Landfall on Vietnam is expected in about 42hrs time. JTWC still expect Pakhar to peak at 80kts prior to landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Pakhar lost most of it's convection this afternoon, but this has made a comeback this evening. Intensity remains at 65kts this evening. In light of the recent struggle Pakhar has had the maintain convection, further significant strengthening in unlikely prior to landfall. Land interaction may play a part in weakening Pakhar as early as tomorrow afternoon.

[knocker]

NASA sees Typhoon Pakhar headed for Vietnam landfall

The first typhoon of the northern hemisphere 2012 typhoon season is headed for landfall in Vietnam. NASA's Aqua and TRMM satellites have been providing forecasters with valuable data on Typhoon Pakhar, that includes rainfall rates, cloud extent and temperature.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite flew almost directly over Pakhar when it was a newly formed tropical storm in the South China Sea on March 29, 2012 at 1122 UTC/4:22 p.m. Asia local time (or 7:22 a.m. EDT). The intensifying storm had wind speeds of about 45 knots (~52 mph/~83 kph) and was moving toward the west-northwest when viewed by this TRMM pass. A rainfall analysis used data from TRMM's Microwave Imager and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments. It showed that moderate to heavy rainfall of about 35 mm/hr (~1.4 inches) was located in an area around Pakhar's southwestern side.

"TRMM's PR was used to create a 3-D image of Pakhar's structure and showed that some of the storms were reaching heights of about 13 kilometers (~8 miles) above the ocean surface," Hal Pierce of the TRMM satellite team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. where the images were created.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-03/nsfc-nst033012.php

[Somerset Squall]

Pakhar is making landfall near Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, as a tropical storm. Pakhar should dissipate within the next 24hrs over land.