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Tonight Low Minima


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Just thought I'd start a thread- bit late in the day, but tonight could produce some very minima for the time of year over the snowfields of County Durham, Yorkshire and Derbyshire thanks to polar air and clear skies and much lighter winds. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two spots hit -6 or -7 degrees. Nothing spectacular but cold all the same.

Last night would have produced some very cold minima over the Highlands had it not been for the NE wind.

The clearest conditions generally look reserved for the far N of England i.e Cumbria, Northumberland, County Durham and N Yorkshire.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District

It stayed cloudy all night here and the current temp' according to the Davis above the roof is 1.1c, there has been a ground frost though which has prevented any more thawing of the snow, apart from underneath where it's in contact with the relatively warm ground.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Buxton minima overnight was surprisingly only -0.5'c, that despite the snowfield and clear skies. Currently 0.2'c and rising with 12'c at the least expected by midday.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Aberfeldy in Perthshire got -5.6C last night. Here nearer the coast I had a min of -2.7C.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Got down to -0.6C this morning, first April air frost since 2010 (not saying much after the very warm April 2011)

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Yes it seems there was too much cloud about last night and also the wind was stronger than I had anticipated. Had the front cleared away sooner in the day then a very cold clear and more windless night would have been on the cards - akin to what southern and central england and south wales will see tonight.

We managed an air frost still, and roofs and cars were covered in a thin veil of white at 09:00 still.

April is likely to beat March for number of mornings with ground frost at this rate.

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Widespread air frost last night in many parts of england and wales, i got readings of -6C in isolated spots whilst driving, the countryside is much much colder than these weather stations which tend to be in built up areas.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgicurrentgraph?CEL=C&ART=kartealle&LANG=en&JJ=2012&MM=04&TT=06&TIME=0500&TYP=temperatursyn&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&TIME=1333751104

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

It is conceivable inland in frost hollows notable minima could be recorded, however only notable for April.. even then, if the air is damp then forget very low minimas. However the coastal regions are simply not going to see minimas below freezing in next weeks setup, it just isn't going to happen. In fact due to rising sea surface temperatures, the difference between coastal and inland sites could be very impressive, that is in my experience anyway. Moist soil will also not help the cause of very low minimas. It is getting to the time of year where you need something pretty exceptional to prooduce very low minimas; I'd say last night was bordering on that.. I believe a few places may have come close to breaking their all time records last night, in a local sense.

As for putting faith in GFS low minimas, Im sure weve all been sucked into it. The fact is the GFS often overdoes low minimas at far away time frames. For example yesterday morning was cold, however, the GFS had been predicting a few days before that North Wales would see -11C, but this did not come anywhere near to fruition, I think -5C was the lowest, and even then was very localised. So Eugene, we know you like cold at any time of the year, but look at these charts with criticism, if they show exceptionally low minimas beyond 72 hours, they're probably best ignored as anomalies. The same happened in May last year when I vividly recall -7C being predicted around this area, this of course is ridiculous, but the Cheshire/N Wales region is definitely a hotspot for inaccurate GFS anomalies. It's best to use reasoning when looking at the charts, and not just go with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

I had -6c Thursday night as did Sennybridge. Coldest in April for several years.

Oh and Pembrey right on the coast had -5c.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It is conceivable inland in frost hollows notable minima could be recorded, however only notable for April.. even then, if the air is damp then forget very low minimas. However the coastal regions are simply not going to see minimas below freezing in next weeks setup, it just isn't going to happen. In fact due to rising sea surface temperatures, the difference between coastal and inland sites could be very impressive, that is in my experience anyway. Moist soil will also not help the cause of very low minimas. It is getting to the time of year where you need something pretty exceptional to prooduce very low minimas; I'd say last night was bordering on that.. I believe a few places may have come close to breaking their all time records last night, in a local sense.

As for putting faith in GFS low minimas, Im sure weve all been sucked into it. The fact is the GFS often overdoes low minimas at far away time frames. For example yesterday morning was cold, however, the GFS had been predicting a few days before that North Wales would see -11C, but this did not come anywhere near to fruition, I think -5C was the lowest, and even then was very localised. So Eugene, we know you like cold at any time of the year, but look at these charts with criticism, if they show exceptionally low minimas beyond 72 hours, they're probably best ignored as anomalies. The same happened in May last year when I vividly recall -7C being predicted around this area, this of course is ridiculous, but the Cheshire/N Wales region is definitely a hotspot for inaccurate GFS anomalies. It's best to use reasoning when looking at the charts, and not just go with it.

a sensible constructive post Stephen, even at T+12 values can be under done for max's and overdone for min's-always best to use caution and look at the fine mesh outputs available at that range, Met=NAE and GFS=on Net Wx is NMM, and to bear in mind your location as Stephen suggests, close by the sea, top of a hill, bottom of a valley, the direction of that valley in relation to the predicted low level wind. Meteorology really is very complex and all the models, any of them, and whatever grid length, is to give an indication with you making your own forecast based on their past accuracy and your local knowledge.

Fascinating, or it is to me, which is why I am rather at a loss sometimes when these delicate differences in forecasting get lost in the overall comments=the weather is boring, no major storms, deep cold, snow, great heat etc etc.

Edited by johnholmes
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