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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Estofex is very encouraging for the SW/S/SE and parts of S-Midlands for tomorrow, but has pretty much the entire UK under a storm risk!!

Potential for risk of post frontal thunderstorms with marginal hail, with a slimmer risk of thunderstorms along the front. Level 1 issued for the SW of England for marginal threat of severe wind gusts.

http://estofex.org/

yahoo.gif

I am in meetings most of the day tomorrow so will be MIGHTILY peeved if I cannot witness any of it (if indeed there is anything to witness!!)

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Doesn't look interesting away from southern England, Ireland and and South Wales to me.

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

Doesn't look interesting away from southern England and and South Wales to me.

Don't know what your looking at then =D

Just been looking over the models in general (GFS) etc..

Now onto the custom skew-t charts, and there's some energy out there tomorrow, here's the Hull one, and I've taken one for Leeds for you below also :)

7ZkCR.png

Leeds

In9hD.png

Lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Those skew-t charts were showing the same thing last week, too, but nothing occurred here. I fully expect nothing to occur tomorrow here, either, but I understand that won't be the case for most people.

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Looks like the South West and Wales initially are in an area of potential for today. ESTOFEX having that area in a level 1:

post-6667-0-37352200-1334645006.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 17 Apr 2012 06:00 to Wed 18 Apr 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 16 Apr 2012 23:02

Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for parts of southern Balkans mainly for severe winds, large hail, tornadoes and excessive convective rainfalls.

A level 1 was issued for southern UK and NW France mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A complex setup across parts of Europe on Tuesday. A broad upper trough over south-central Europe rapidly advances east while becoming negative tilted by Wednesday morning. On its front flank, a secondary SFC low forms around Greece and rapidly intensifies while moving NE-wards. A frontal system affects the area with all kind of severe weather possible. On the back side of the trough, very cold mid levels overspread UK, while a deep SFC low rapidly moves towards SE.

DISCUSSION

... southern UK towards NW France ...

A deep surface low rapidly translates from Ireland SE-wards across the UK, characterized by intense wind field. Marginal instability will result from steep lapse rates behind the cold front which should support widespread showers and thunderstorms in cold maritime airmass, some of them could bring some marginal hail. While early in the forecast period, some convective activity cannot be excluded along the leading edge of the cold front, placed within the highly sheared envirnment. However, a marginal level 1 has been issued to cover mostly the severe winds threat.

Maybe some thunder and lightning in amongst that approaching low?

PGNE14_CL.gif

18_20.gif

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12041718.GIF

21OWS_AFWA-GEPS-PRODUCTS_MODEL-DATA_ENSEMBLE_PROB-OF-LTG-STRIKE_ENSEMBLE_30_12Z.png

Little bit of CAPE spreading in:

hir_cape_eur18.png

hir_icape_eur18.png

hir_layer_eur18.png

hir_lfc_eur18.png

and those lapse rates......

hir_lapse2_eur18.png

hir_stp_eur18.png

post-6667-0-37352200-1334645006_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Hoping for something today,the estofex forecast has me a little more interested in the possibilities,I still think I won't get anything but you never know,good luck everyone

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Hoping for something today,the estofex forecast has me a little more interested in the possibilities,I still think I won't get anything but you never know,good luck everyone

I'm a bit split for it! Estofex forecast is good for us, although I think it's leant more towards windspeeds rather than thunderstorms although they do say they are possible!

Ian Fergusson also mention little of any thunderstorm possibilities today, referring more to a blustery shower type set up, with heavy showers moving through on a strong breeze! Last week he was more upbeat about thundery potential, which materialised for some!

As ever though, only time will tell!

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Yes , good luck all smile.png I have more of a chance at 6pm. It's started off here nice and sunny, so fingers crossed once again. Quite a thundery week in store so hopefully a few of us may actually get a chance.biggrin.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I wish I hadn't looked to see what other forums are saying about todays potential as has lowered my excitment a fair bit sad.png

What, you mean there are other forums????? ohmy.png

post-6667-0-05794100-1334651082_thumb.jp

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Not much activity currently, but it's absolutely chucking it down here in Mid Sussex!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I wish I hadn't looked to see what other forums are saying about todays potential as has lowered my excitment a fair bit :(

Tell Tell! I can take it! Lol!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

I think the Level 1 issued by Estofex is no longer relevant now, as the strong wind shear has/will move away with the band of rain clearing the east this morning, and showers that will form in the polar maritime will be in the usual weakly-sheared environment. Having said that we could see some lively showers/storms with some small-moderate size hail. My Storm Forecast for today:

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 17/04/2012 09:00

Forecast Summary Map

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_04_2012/post-1052-0-49304300-1334652818_thumb.jpg

Valid: 17/04/2012 09:00 - 18/04/2011 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Upper and collocated surface low just NW of UK/Eire will drift slowly SE over next 24 hrs, a strong and unstable southwesterly flow will cover much of the British Isles today.

E IRELAND, ENGLAND and WALES

Upper low moving SE across Ireland today will spread a pool of cold upper air (sub -30C at 500mb) across Eire then Wern/SWern UK through the day, this cold air aloft will serve to steepen lapse rates intially across Eire and Wern UK then further inland across the UK later ... as a result a few 100 j/kg CAPE is likely across England and Wales and southern parts of Scotland by late afternoon with help of surface heating in any sunny spells - so a scattering thunderstorms are likely to develop late morning through to early evening. Strong wind shear will tend to move away from the UK this morning, so convection will generally tend to form in a weakly-sheared environment. However, storms will be accompanied by hail and gusty winds, hail maybe up to marble size where we see stronger updrafts, otherwise no severe weather is anticipated. Heavy showers and a few storms with hail and gusty winds may continue through the night across southern areas in the deeply unstable southwesterly flow.

post-1052-0-49304300-1334652818_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Cheers Nick.

Fingers crossed, I can see on the VISsat that theres currently minimal convection but it is only 10am :)

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

PROB30 TEMPO 1714/1721 4000 +TSRA BECMG 1721/1724 20010KT TEMPO 1802/1812 4000 +SHRA TSRA BKN014CB BECMG 1807/1810 14018G28KT

Probability 30% : Temporary

from 17th at 14 UTC to 17th at 21 UTC Visibility 4000 m heavy thunderstorm rain Becoming

from 17th at 21 UTC to 17th at 24 UTC Wind 10 kt from south/southwest

And again tomorrow morning....

Temporary from 18th at 02 UTC to 18th at 12 UTC Visibility 4000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft , Cumulonimbus. heavy rain showers and thunderstorm rain

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

PROB30 TEMPO 1714/1721 4000 +TSRA BECMG 1721/1724 20010KT TEMPO 1802/1812 4000 +SHRA TSRA BKN014CB BECMG 1807/1810 14018G28KT

Probability 30% : Temporary

from 17th at 14 UTC to 17th at 21 UTC Visibility 4000 m heavy thunderstorm rain Becoming

from 17th at 21 UTC to 17th at 24 UTC Wind 10 kt from south/southwest

And again tomorrow morning....

Temporary from 18th at 02 UTC to 18th at 12 UTC Visibility 4000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft , Cumulonimbus. heavy rain showers and thunderstorm rain

Where for? I don't understand this aviation speak!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Where for? I don't understand this aviation speak!

It means...

"This is your captain speaking......Please fasten your seat belts & place your trays in the upright position, this could get a little bumpy" wink.png

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Where for? I don't understand this aviation speak!

That's why I put the text at the bottom, saying what it's says.

But it's for the London Airports, a quick look for the South West says the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

That's why I put the text at the bottom, saying what it's says.

But it's for the London Airports, a quick look for the South West says the same.

Staverton airport ( my local one ) says thunderstorms today and tomorrow.

Lets hope convection starts soon then :)

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

wow looks like convection is getting going...

What makes you say that?

I can see that in the far SW and W/Wales there's a line appearing. Still need to see what happens with it. Seems a little to much for anything of use at the moment...

Fingers crossed though.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

What makes you say that?

some people look at the skies as well as their computer screens....good.gif

There are certainly some big clouds bubbling up around here now...

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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

some people look at the skies as well as their computer screens....good.gif

There are certainly some big clouds bubbling up around here now...

Nothing like that round here, on the PC screen or out the window!

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

wow looks like convection is getting going...

I can see that too in SE24...

Edit: Rain shower here, under a grey/darkish cloud... come on for storm 7!!

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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