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Model Output Discussion - 15th April Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Please continue here with your thoughts & observations about the model output....

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well 00 oz GFS keeps the cool outlook going with more welcome rain for southern areas as lows track over the region. A period of windy weather Ireland as well during Tuesday. Only in deepest FI are their signs of things warming up. Pretty good agreement between ECM and GFS with only major differances showing up well in deep FI T168 onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Looking at the links/teleconnections I use throughout the year I honestly cannot see any real change in the weather pattern for the UK this month. Indeed it does begin to look like this weather pattern is with us into May-how far into May I have no idea.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at the links/teleconnections I use throughout the year I honestly cannot see any real change in the weather pattern for the UK this month. Indeed it does begin to look like this weather pattern is with us into May-how far into May I have no idea.

It seems to me we are in our traditional summer pattern at present lots of low pressure around with lots of cloud with the odd sunny spells here and there, best to get this out the way now so summer has a better chance of been a decent one.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

It seems to me we are in our traditional summer pattern at present lots of low pressure around with lots of cloud with the odd sunny spells here and there, best to get this out the way now so summer has a better chance of been a decent one.

Yes, so it's good it's now much more chance of a dry settled spell when Summer should be around.

Jet diving far SW,strange charts to what we`ve seen so far this spring,lows tracking south right over the south.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn541.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn7215.png

That saying the weather balances itself out, was high pressure with a non-existant jetstream. Now it's had enough and told the Azores to go **** itself and decided the way forward is low pressure towards the south of the country :D

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Looking at the links/teleconnections I use throughout the year I honestly cannot see any real change in the weather pattern for the UK this month. Indeed it does begin to look like this weather pattern is with us into May-how far into May I have no idea.

those low anomolies to our sw becoming more emphasised on naefs with higher ones becoming established to our east john. a trough west of iberia and sceuro ridge would be a fair old change to the recent and upcoming pattern. it maybe the last days of april before we see it change but i think the pattern of the next ten days will not be repeated in the period following.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Looking at the links/teleconnections I use throughout the year I honestly cannot see any real change in the weather pattern for the UK this month. Indeed it does begin to look like this weather pattern is with us into May-how far into May I have no idea.

Very much agree John, the rebalance is certainly underway and appears set to gather pace now across the remainder of April. Just how far into May we go looks rather more open to question, but both the model outputs and the teleconnective signals suggest a major pattern change looks unlikely, with perhaps 'becoming less unsettled' being the best we can hope for as we enter the new month.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

But only a few weeks ago it was high pressure all the way with no sign of change so you never really quite know when the gear will shift... Certainly not in the short term though. Here's hoping mid May summer 2012 switches onto full power for a good 3 or so months!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A cold night coming up tonight,especially for April,GFS going for -5 in some places,the NAE is a

bit more restrained!

GFS> NAE>

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

GFS showing -6c in places, im shure some isolated spots could hit -8c somewhere in the early hours.

15-580.GIF?15-12

21-580.GIF?15-6

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

It seems to me we are in our traditional summer pattern at present lots of low pressure around with lots of cloud with the odd sunny spells here and there, best to get this out the way now so summer has a better chance of been a decent one.

The weather doesn't run out of one type of pattern, there isn't a tank in which once it empties the the sun can come out. In fact the summer could end up miserable again, there is NO correlation between spring and summer, the same as there isn't a correlation between autumn and winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

GFS usually over does the temps doesn't it. I hope so, as my asparagus will get clobbered at -5c even with fleece.

I don't seem to be able to reply to anyone or do a quick post since the upgrade. Has anyone else had the same problem?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS usually over does the temps doesn't it. I hope so, as my asparagus will get clobbered at -5c even with fleece.

I don't seem to be able to reply to anyone or do a quick post since the upgrade. Has anyone else had the same problem?

Press Crtl and F5 that should sort your problem out

Edited by Gavin D
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Press Crtl and F5 that should sort your problem out

Don't mean to be pedantic but you don't need to press Ctrl, just F5 will do the trick :)

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

Just had a look at the models for the first time in a few days.

Oh dear oh dear oh dear.... strong negatively-tilted jet aiming straight to South UK.

Off to a family wedding at the end of the month in Perthshire - looks like it could go the same way as mine did in July 08, low pressure, rain and lots of wind to boot....

Mind you, I'd trade a cold and wet April/early May for a warm dry summer for once this year....

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

GFS usually over does the temps doesn't it. I hope so, as my asparagus will get clobbered at -5c even with fleece.

I don't seem to be able to reply to anyone or do a quick post since the upgrade. Has anyone else had the same problem?

Yes i did earlier. I opened up Netweather in another window and it was OK then - weird.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

GFS showing -6c in places, im shure some isolated spots could hit -8c somewhere in the early hours.

21-580.GIF?15-6

GFS is overdoing that I think- the coldest place last night that wasn't high up or in Scotland was Woodford at -3C. Really can't see anywhere in England getting down to -6C and I would be very surprised if we saw -8C with the nights being so short now.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Don't mean to be pedantic but you don't need to press Ctrl, just F5 will do the trick smile.png

Ah that's fine then, that's what Paul told us to do the other day but if F5 works then thats fine.

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

GFS showing -6c in places, im shure some isolated spots could hit -8c somewhere in the early hours.

21-580.GIF?15-6

Absolutely no chance.

-6C in mid-April under the conditions we're experiencing today? I bet my house on it that -6C will not be achieved away from the Cumbrian frost hollows, and even that's a push.

Far too much cloud around away from N.Wales looking at the satellite imagery, and there's a breeze starting to pick up too, rather windy on the Eastern side of the country, coasts especially.

I'd be surprised if -3C is reached tonight. NAE looks bang on. -1C/-2C your typical low in sheltered areas.

Don't mean to be pedantic but you don't need to press Ctrl, just F5 will do the trick smile.png

Hitting Ctrl also clears the cache. A standard F5 just refreshes the page..

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Was just a hunch Backtrack, and i am talking about isolated locations. Anyhow will be interesting to see whats been recorded in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Was just a hunch Backtrack, and i am talking about isolated locations. Anyhow will be interesting to see whats been recorded in the morning.

Going to need that breeze to die down, hopefully it will.

Shap will be the cold spot imo! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Going to need that breeze to die down, hopefully it will.

Shap will be the cold spot imo! biggrin.png

Even Shap was only -4C last night, can't see it being that much colder tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Going to go into depth with Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday because we have some interesting weather on the way that ALL parts of the UK will get.

9pm Monday - We have a low pressure system developing close to the UK this will bring around 40 to 50mph winds to most of Ireland and Western Scotland. We also see rain move in.

6am Tuesday - The low starts to move out more West bringing lighter winds for Western Scotland now but Ireland will still see 40 to 50mph. The rain at this time is currently moving across the UK.

12pm Tuesday - Wind still the same as 6am but Western parts in Ireland will start to see 45 to 55mph wind. The rain will be scattered around the UK at this point but it does look to reach the South East.

9pm Tuesday - The wind will be mainly a strong breeze around the UK but for Western Ireland its looking to see 50 to 60mph. The rain starts to clear away for most but more rain is moving in over Ireland.

9am Wednesday - The low starts to move into the English channel but as it does the winds look to ease down to 40 to 50mph for Southern Ireland and South Western England. Most of England will be getting rain at this point.

6pm Wednesday - The low is now over South Western England and the wind has continued to drop down to now 30 to 40mph. Rain is still around but starting to dry out.

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: St Albans,
  • Location: St Albans,

Then again in Hertfordshire at 4pm it was 4 degrees as a light shower came through so it doesn't have that far to fall. Depends on the wind I guess.

GFS is overdoing that I think- the coldest place last night that wasn't high up or in Scotland was Woodford at -3C. Really can't see anywhere in England getting down to -6C and I would be very surprised if we saw -8C with the nights being so short now.

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