Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 part 3

[Cheshire Freeze]

But why do troughs never arrive here at mid-late afternoon??? Its always in the East where it magically seems to be for the best conditions.

A very pertinent question and one that has left me scratching my head too. I can't see a reason behind this. The only thing it could be is bad luck but it's been happening for so long now that I don't think that could be the cause. I did notice it last year too though.

[A.J]

Anyhoos on a more serious note, the good news is that convection has initiated again over Mid-Wales and showers are developing, so maybe there is hope yet

[Convective]

Alright then. What about the Isle of Man..? Nothing here for the last 10 days but 1 drizzle shower. Is it only winter time things can form over the sea? No hail here at all. No heavy rain..

Edited April 20, 2012 by Convective

[Eskimo]

I knew the North-east weren't going to see any of the action today, if it's any consolation, I live just north of London and haven't heard a rumble today.

[SF-02]

Incredible!! Another Thunderstorm in SE London.10th of the year.

I'm in SE London and have seen all of one burst of thunder all day. It keeps skimming by. Same thing in last 10 mins. Where are you?

[Supacell]

Getting darker to the south and west here so looks like going to get hit. No lightning being detected but some heavy radar returns. Maybe just maybe I can see something on my chase.

Oh and to add to the moaning, Bradford never gets anything and I was much better placed for storms when I lived in the North Midlands.

[A.J]

I'm in SE London and have seen all of one burst of thunder all day. It keeps skimming by. Same thing in last 10 mins. Where are you?

Judging by the storms he's had recently, he's probably on cloud - 9! ...lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anyhoos on a more serious note, the good news is that convection has initiated again over Mid-Wales and showers are developing, so maybe there is hope yet

I wouldn't get your hopes up, they'll be half-arsed showers lol and before you say it AJ, I've already been called a grumpy old man once today, I'm sure I can take it a second time

Edited April 20, 2012 by CreweCold

[Costa Del Fal]

A very pertinent question and one that has left me scratching my head too. I can't see a reason behind this. The only thing it could be is bad luck but it's been happening for so long now that I don't think that could be the cause. I did notice it last year too though.

Indeed, i dont think its luck at all. Its happening every day in this recent spell tbh.

Ive always said Westerly airflows are rarely good for here. Some have disagreed but I stand by my point. Its crud.

[seabreeze86]

Some big showers getting going to the east of the pennines no lightning detected yet but i think it will be just a matter of time. Will i break my duck for thunderstorms so far this year i think yes.

[Kain]

I think it seriously needs asking now why on Earth every single day the best conditions always peak in the East?

It always looks good in the West but dies down by early afternoon. Why do Troughs always reach the East in time for the best conditions?

Im seriously bored of seeing the same old places see everything. And then in Mid Wales when there is supposedly all this potential, nothing is forming???? This morning there was loads of precip in Wales but it all turns into one big cloudy moderate rainfest.

Even despite different wind directions, different amounts of energy, NOTHING will happen here yet London is now seeing its 10th storm of the year already. What does it need to get things going here?

I feel your pain bud, I really do! Its annoys me reading the same old faces getting the storms. Of course its not there fault, but you know...jealousy and all.

[A.J]

Indeed, i dont think its luck at all. Its happening every day in this recent spell tbh.

Ive always said Westerly airflows are rarely good for here. Some have disagreed but I stand by my point. Its crud.

I actually agree, simply because in a westerly flow we are in the natural rain shadow of the welsh mountains, air is relatively dry & descending due to our proximity to the welsh mountains, further east these air pockets obtain moisture from their proximity to the surface & energy by solar heating gaining lift/bouyancy thus convection initiates the further east one is........Convection wise, I think an unstable SWly or NWly flow is much better as the Bristol Channel & Cheshire Gap form natural funnels & low level convergencies for shower development in our regions, not forgetting to add that said air is fed with plenty of moisture from the sea....Not saying this is correct, but certainly makes sense to me

[Paul Sherman]

I reckon Robbie is Cheating and is flying around in his Cessna

[Staffordshire]

Anyhoos on a more serious note, the good news is that convection has initiated again over Mid-Wales and showers are developing, so maybe there is hope yet

[Staffordshire]

Sorry aj, meant to put, I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope nocturnal cooling helps things!

[Paul]

Thought this may be of interest - yesterday's rain totals map. It really shows how the showers/storms rotated around the low pressure system

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/15793-daily-rainfall-19th-april/

[Costa Del Fal]

I actually agree, simply because in a westerly flow we are in the natural rain shadow of the welsh mountains, air is relatively dry & descending due to our proximity to the welsh mountains, further east these air pockets obtain moisture from their proximity to the surface & energy by solar heating gaining lift/bouyancy thus convection initiates the further east one is........Convection wise, I think an unstable SWly or NWly flow is much better as the Bristol Channel & Cheshire Gap form natural funnels & low level convergencies for shower development in our regions, not forgetting to add that said air is fed with plenty of moisture from the sea....Not saying this is correct, but certainly makes sense to me

I very much agree.

Tomorrow looks exactly the same today and possibly even worse imo with the energy becoming confined mostly to the East by mid afternoon and very little energy over Wales. Oh and winds from the West again.

[Paul]

Nice funnel cloud photo here:

https://twitter.com/#!/stormbell/status/193360705959895040/photo/1

[Chris K]

Even despite different wind directions, different amounts of energy, NOTHING will happen here yet London is now seeing its 10th storm of the year already. What does it need to get things going here?

It is frustrating sometimes but I guess its just on of those things. Down here around Bristol these types of synoptics rarely deliver in my experience...especially if the wind direction is coming from the W or SW.

Best storms ive had have pretty much all been from lows that move up from biscay in the summer, or if the conditions are right, when winds are coming from S/SE originating from a hot continent and a front is close by to the SW of england enhancing instability etc. May 9th 2008 was brilliant and have waited since then for a decent storm. Lightning was flashing for a fair few hours that evening.

[Evening thunder]

Thought this may be of interest - yesterday's rain totals map. It really shows how the showers/storms rotated around the low pressure system

Thats pretty interesting, (and guess which region has the dry gap with no storms..)

As for today - currently a grey dull light rain mess over my house, with intense downpours forming just to my east/NE (and earlier south) and moving away. Seems about right.

Edited April 20, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Robbie Garrett]

I'm in SE London and have seen all of one burst of thunder all day. It keeps skimming by. Same thing in last 10 mins. Where are you?

I reckon Robbie is Cheating and is flying around in his Cessna

I live in SE17, but I was in SE5 earlier. (SE24) is my College. I was walking up the hill and could see North London was pitch black, and when I sat down, 1hr later.. flash of lightning and a very loud rumble of Thunder (about 1425-1435ish) with some consistent IC lightning. I think the fact I was on a hill made me closer to the action.

An hr or so later, again.. looking at the 1545 radar run, you can see I was probably under a red blob...and there was a rumble of thunder after some lightning and that was around for about 15-20 minutes or so.

I've been quite lucky If I am honest, never really had this much storms in a long while.

Paul, that would be cheating yet but a very good idea actually... I went up Monday as it was clear. But if the next window comes up similar to todays, we can go to Biggin and fly around the South East if anyone wants to come along, so long as conditions look perfect and at least we don't waste money... we wait for the storms to come to us.

Anyways looks likely I am on for another 1 storm this evening, possibly another 3 looking at the radar run....

[Alex95]

Torrential deluge of rain and hail at lunch time today, lasting about an hour. No thunder though. Hopefully there'll be more of the same tomorrow, and even this evening could have a surprise as I can see shower clouds again to the west.

[A.J]

Just brought a pan of water to the boil. The lengths that I will go to just to see a bit of rapid convection!......... I'll fetch my coat!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I very much agree.

Tomorrow looks exactly the same today and possibly even worse imo with the energy becoming confined mostly to the East by mid afternoon and very little energy over Wales. Oh and winds from the West again.

Worse by the looks of it with a big gap in CAPE around (yes you guessed it) Wales, into NW England and western parts of Midlands. I don't see any reason for this but it is there.

Just brought a pan of water to the boil. The lengths that I will go to just to see a bit of rapid convection!......... I'll fetch my coat!

Too funny You my friend are a guy I'd like to go for a pint with!

Edited April 20, 2012 by CreweCold

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just brought a pan of water to the boil. The lengths that I will go to just to see a bit of rapid convection!......... I'll fetch my coat!

Now all you need to do is attach billions of ice-cubes to the ceiling, which should hopefully create enough instability so you can have a thunderstorm in your house. He he hee...

Edited April 20, 2012 by Rainbow Snow