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May CET -- Your Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Well, I don't usually start these monthly CET threads, but it is the 22nd and this gives me a chance to post my CET stats and trivia before anyone makes a guess. So here we go ...

AVERAGE CET

1981-2010 ... 11.7

1971-2000 ... 11.3

1961-1990 ... 11.2

1901-2000 ... 11.4

1801-1900 ... 11.1

1701-1800 ... 11.3

1659-2011 ... 11.2

past ten yrs (2002-11) ... 11.9

also, so far in 21st century (2001-11) ... 12.0

past five yrs (2007-11) ... 11.9

coldest ten years ... 9.6 (1690-1699) ... 10.8 (1979-1988) coldest since late 19th century

warmest ten years ... 12.3 (1999-2008) ... 12.2 (1827-1836) just about as warm

Warmest

1. 15.1 (1833) ... by a large margin the most decisive (1.2 deg) of the twelve warmest months

2. 13.9 (1848)

3. 13.8 (1788, 1758)

5. 13.7 (1808)

6. 13.6 (1992, 1727) ... This tied for sixth place is the weakest showing of any of the twelve calendar months for the modern (post 1960) era, the second least impressive modern showing is fifth place in January and June. However, for post-1980, June doesn't show up until 18th place.

Coldest

1. 8.5 (1698)

2. 8.6 (1740)

3. 8.7 (1817)

4. 8.8 (1855)

5. 8.9 (1879, 1885, 1902)

13. 9.1 (1996 tied with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

Daily extremes

21.1 on 29th, 1944

2.9 on 8th, 1861

and this Piers Corbyn special, 3-5 May 1877, average CET 3.5 C

Believe it or not, 1885 went 25 days without breaking 10.0 C (May 1996 managed 20 days) and 1891 was sitting at 11.2 after 14 days then averaged 7.5 for two weeks, finally warming up near the end again (and finishing on 9.5). Anyone looking for a large warming trend first to second half should look at 1929.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

I think I'll leave it for a while, but I don't think May is going to be the coldest for 100 years for some reason..

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It doesn't always follow but sometimes a wet rainy spell in the spring is followed by settled warm weather, so here's to hoping that during May it will gradually settle down so that by the middle of the month we may be able to think about getting our barbecues outgood.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

If any mod happens in, my thread title (which I can't edit now) changed my "CET" to the dreaded Cet and I just noticed this now.

Well, I agree it won't be the coldest since 1902, or even 1996, will say 11.4 to get things going.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I'll leave my guess for a week or so but I am fairly certain it won't be the coldest for 100 years

Edited by Gavin D
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

With the final warming very late this year, this would normally tempt me to speculate that we would see a warm first half and then average second half. However, it appears that despite the weakening of La Nina, the -QBO which is currently strong seems to provoking a -AO and i see nothing that is going to stop that until early June.

As such, i expect northerlies and easterlies to dominate and while easterlies can be warm at this time of year i believe it will be unsettled enough for us not to see any real gain from the warming continent.

10.7C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

, 3-5 May 1877, average CET 3.5 C

If you look at just the first week of each month for the CET for 1877 then believe it or not the first week of May 1877 comes out 2nd coldest

Jan: 6.6C

Feb: 7.3C

Mar: 4.7C

Apr: 8.0C

May: 5.1C

Jun: 13.8C

Jul: 12.8C

Aug: 14.9C

Sep: 11.0C

Oct: 8.4C

Nov: 9.0C

Dec: 5.9C

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

May is my favourite month of the year, and for the NW quarter of the country is often the driest month of the year with often at least one spell of beautiful sunny dry warm weather (not always mind), usually courtesy of an easterly regime.

I always look forward to May and the promise of long warm dry sunny days with brilliant visibility before the heat haze and pollution of summer. Everything is very fresh in May, and it really is a special time with the prospects and anticipation of the summer still to come.

Recent Mays have brought mixed conditions, with quite a bit of rain and some very unsettled weather interspersed with either warm sunny dry weather think first half of 2008 and frostier sunny dry weather think periods in 2010.

I will give my prediction at the weekend, however, I am not expecting anything particularly special this May in terms of temps, perhaps a little above average at best, but quite possibly a fair bit below as there are signs of northerlies and easterlies dominating with the trough going nowhere fast. I'd take a poor May provided it is followed by a decent June..

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

Going to go with 10.5*C, slightly below average May. If the Met Office is correct about the Jet Stream staying South for a while until June, I feel we'll end up with further Low Pressure systems tracking over, or nearby to us, making places feel cool and unsettled. I believe there will be one or two brief drier warmer periods between. But I reckon eventually the Atlantic will lose its energy with High Pressure attempting to ridge in from the East/North-East with winds becoming South-Easterly with warmer, sunnier weather becoming established for many places. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

12.3c please.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

I think the trough currently sat on top of the UK will continue to migrate westwards into atlantic with hights building over Scandi... normally a recipie for warmth (albeit without a southerly tracking jet!!). I'm going to stick my neck out as I believe there could be a significant warm spell. Therefore my estimate is 12.7°C

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Going to go with 10.5*C, slightly below average May. If the Met Office is correct about the Jet Stream staying South for a while until June, I feel we'll end up with further Low Pressure systems tracking over, or nearby to us, making places feel cool and unsettled. I believe there will be one or two brief drier warmer periods between. But I reckon eventually the Atlantic will lose its energy with High Pressure attempting to ridge in from the East/North-East with winds becoming South-Easterly with warmer, sunnier weather becoming established for many places. smile.png

Same here, I am going for 10.41414*C

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

12.5C please.

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

I will go with 11.8C :)

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

I think early to mid month could potentially bring a decent warm spell but I also believe the second half will be much more unsettled.

Therefore, 11.6 for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

Same here, I am going for 10.41414*C

He he hee... good CET guess. Certainly very precise that one with all those digits. ;-) :)

Edited by Rainbow Snow
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