Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012

[Paul Sherman]

Thunder being reported in parts of Dorset atm

[Supacell]

Hmm, I wish I lived much further south. Still, its fun reading whats going on from here.

[jtay]

Thunder being reported in parts of Dorset atm

Yep, first few flashes and rumbles moving across the Hants, Wilts and Dorset border at the moment.

[Southern Storm]

Sat in the car facing out to sea here on the south coast, heavy rain here and that's it.

I can confirm lightning to the north of me, but it doesn't look like amounting to much I'm afraid

Fingers crossed for later.

[Lauren]

There's no specific post which summarises the chances.

Basically, for our area, the risk of thunder (of which I put at around 20-30%) won't be until later, perhaps between 00z and 04z.

A dynamic and complex atmosphere is overhead, with occasional electric bursts around Channel, with slightly more organised thunderstorms over C/N France. Pulses of moisture are likely to converge in the next few hours, forming an organised band of heavy rain, with some localised torrential downpours with the chance of embedded thunderstorms.

Risk extends from S Wales across the S Coast/M4 corridor region along to Kent/Essex, as far north as Suffolk/Norfolk.

The messages from amateurs to experienced professionals alike has been that this is a very complex setup. Potential thunder but by no means guaranteed.

Keep an eye out of your window this evening and see how things develop.

IMO, the skies have looked conducive for thunder for the past 2-3 hours so fingers crossed

Check out page 1 of this thread Lauren I've just moved the two forecasts that were posted up this morning from Coast and Brickfielder.

Thanks very much!

Grrrrr, why must the activity be predicted for sleeptime?

[chapmanslade]

Sat in the car facing out to sea here on the south coast, heavy rain here and that's it.

I can confirm lightning to the north of me, but it doesn't look like amounting to much I'm afraid

Fingers crossed for later.

Lightning visible and a few rumbles to the SE from here - ground strike seen from very high cloud base probably 20+ miles away

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yep, first few flashes and rumbles moving across the Hants, Wilts and Dorset border at the moment.

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

Nice good sign

[chapmanslade]

Pretty active storm around Salisbury I would guess

[snow raven]

Been raining here since around 7pm, getting slightly more heavier now.

Fingers crossed for some imports later - just have to hope if we do get any, I don't sleep through them

[liambailey09]

Looks like the activity over northern France is intensifying and also over eastern France/Belgium there's some good returns on the radar.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

To me it's looking good..I am NO expert lol...Just below Amateur But everything SEEMS to be looking good for t-storms later..Activity Near dorset..Showers and other PPN breaking out over France and the Channel

[Robbie Garrett]

Just landed 30 minutes ago, there is quite a bit of turbulence in the 1000ft-1500ft region, quite a bit of shear. Gatwick denied me a transit, probably because the weather was pants. But it looked gloomy everywhere.

Speak when I'm home

[Supercell 89]

Hoping for something later on tonight, impressive cells over Dorest which i think are probably going to track north of here but some potent cells exploding over north west France so hopefully they will drift this way and not be killed by the channel.

I have a feeling any storms that fire up tonight will only fire up once any precipitation crossing the channel hits land as i think the sea temperatures are abit cool to support many storms for long. Why does this have to happen the night before i have an exam! lol

[snow raven]

To me it's looking good..I am NO expert lol...Just below Amateur But everything SEEMS to be looking good for t-storms later..Activity Near dorset..Showers and other PPN breaking out over France and the Channel

Just have to hope the Channel doesn't kill them off!

[Staffordshire]

I'd say anywhere betwen Weymouth, and Chichester, will be good this side of midnight, as for after, who knows?!

[VillagePlank]

Hoping for something later on tonight, impressive cells over Dorest which i think are probably going to track north of here but some potent cells exploding over north west France so hopefully they will drift this way and not be killed by the channel.

I have a feeling any storms that fire up tonight will only fire up once any precipitation crossing the channel hits land as i think the sea temperatures are abit cool to support many storms for long. Why does this have to happen the night before i have an exam! lol

This set of storms is not based on surface heating, rather good lapse rates, imported moisture, and convergence/directional shear; storms should make it across the channel as long as the moisture feed (latent energy) is in place.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just have to hope the Channel doesn't kill them off!

#

Thats one thing I am keeping in mind..But lets hope they can gain a good "strength" and grab some extra energy as they slam into our shores

[tara303]

To me it's looking good..I am NO expert lol...Just below Amateur But everything SEEMS to be looking good for t-storms later..Activity Near dorset..Showers and other PPN breaking out over France and the Channel

Yep, very ominous mid level cloud, approx 7000ft looking at the height of the planes from Heathrow in relation, stationed at window on pc, flicking through the radar maps lol!!!

Let's hope we get a few nighttime flashes anyway!!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yep, very ominous mid level cloud, approx 7000ft looking at the height of the planes from Heathrow in relation, stationed at window on pc, flicking through the radar maps lol!!!

Let's hope we get a few nighttime flashes anyway!!!

Lol bloody planes..Constant roar and rumble every 7 minutes with them till about 11:30 then it goes dead..And it all starts again at 3am lol!

[DeepSnow]

Just had moderate rain start here in south wales and about 5mins ago roughly 15miles to my east maybe i saw a breif flash of lightning light up the cloud.. havent seen anything since though! Unless its been so long im not seeing things lol

[suffolkboy_]

The rainfall here certainly isn't as heavy as the radar suggests, just a few spots. I presume it's the fact these are higher level storms and there is likely to be some evaporation taking place.

I'm looking forward to the beast over Belgium coming into view of the UK radar.....looks like somebody squashed a fly on the screen.

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php

Quite a few strikes now over Europe, but most seem to be in Easten Germany, where the rainfall radar doesn't quite pick them up.

Edited April 30, 2012 by suffolkboy_

[Lynxus]

Wow, just refreshed the NW radar.. WHAT HAPPENED? Someone p*** off nature?

Thats some heavy rain!

[Supercell 89]

This set of storms is not based on surface heating, rather good lapse rates, imported moisture, and convergence/directional shear; storms should make it across the channel as long as the moisture feed (latent energy) is in place.

That sounds encouraging I think the precip over north west France has Devon/Cornwall written on it lol. The cells over Dorset are going nuts looking at the latest radar scans, is it still thundering there?

[Eskimo]

To me it's looking good..I am NO expert lol...Just below Amateur But everything SEEMS to be looking good for t-storms later..Activity Near dorset..Showers and other PPN breaking out over France and the Channel

To me it's looking good..I am NO expert lol...Just below Amateur But everything SEEMS to be looking good for t-storms later..Activity Near dorset..Showers and other PPN breaking out over France and the Channel

Come on now, you know what happened to Frenchie 1 & 2

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Come on now, you know what happened to Frenchie 1 & 2

Yes..I know But this is a completely different atmosphere if I am correct