Summer 2012

[Summer Sun]

It's hard to believe that we are just 4 weeks away from the start of the UK summer, that past few summer's in the UK have not been the best for prolonged warm spells, and 2 delivered devastating floods to vast parts of the country

Summer 2011 was one to forget the UK mean temperature for summer was 13.7°C, which is 0.4°C below average

The mean temperature was near average during June,

0.7°C below average during July

0.6°C below in August.

It was the coolest June across the UK since 2001

The coolest July since 2000

The coolest August since 1993

The season was the coolest since summer 1993, There were only around ten days when the temperature exceeded 25°C widely.

Rainfall also varied with some areas seeing well above average amounts, whilst some areas in the Midlands were fairly dry.

Long range forecast's suggest this summer could be one of the better ones than we have had of late with temperatures above average, but as always these need to be taken with extreme caution

Netweather

June

Confidence at this stage is very low for both the summer months featured in this long term forecast, with some significant uncertainty with regard to the overall pattern and therefore the conditions on the ground.

At this stage though, June is currently expected to be warmer than average for the time of year across the whole UK, with rainfall levels excepted to be around average country wide.

July

Confidence falls away even further at this point. The forecast model currently suggests that temperatures will again be above average with rainfall levels creeping up to be a little above average in some regions.

Weather Services International

June

Warmer than normal

July

Warmer than normal

Further, relative to recent years, we expect a drier summer in the UK

Met Office

May to July - Temperature

The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years.

However, predictability for both periods tends to be low, with current forecasts indicating greater-than-average uncertainty in UK weather patterns as early as the beginning of May. May is also a month where there can still be large swings in temperature depending on the prevailing wind direction and so cold spells are still possible despite the most likely scenario being for above-normal temperatures.

The probability that the UK-mean temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

May to July - Precipitation

For UK average rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above normal values during both May and May, June, July. However, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below normal rainfall. Whilst the wet weather of recent weeks will have had a positive effect on soil moisture, with all that that implies for agriculture, it is unlikely to

have had a significant impact on groundwater supplies. With the forecast for May and May,June,July not favouring a continuation of the current very wet spell, groundwater resources in southern, eastern and central England are very unlikely to recover during this period.

The probability that UKaverage rainfall for May,June,July will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 15%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 19712000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

[Milhouse]

For such an event-packed Summer it would be a total let down if summer followed the theme of the last 5. The key player in bringing settled spells to the UK, the Azores High, will have to get its act together soon if the summer is to start well. But as 1983 showed, a poor June doesnt mean its curtains for summer.

[Bottesford]

I've booked a trip to Barcelona in June. Then I can definitely get some sunshine!

Been so so long since I've felt genuinely warm sun on me - probably Oct 1st last year. Just need to charge up desperately.

[Thundery wintry showers]

For pronounced dry/sunny/settled interludes occurring on a near-nationwide basis, the best bet is generally a setup with the jet deflected northwards across our end of the Atlantic, promoting high pressure over western Europe- generally speaking the high then ends up over or just to the east of Britain and we don't get many issues with cloud coming in off the Atlantic or North Sea. Often in such situations the Azores High actually ends up quite suppressed but periodically throws up ridges and breakaway anticyclones which settle over western Europe.

It's true that the above setup is also associated with hot thundery months if accompanied by troughing mid-Atlantic, but if the mid-Atlantic trough is weak and/or stays well out to the west then significant dry spells can occur over the British Isles.

I won't deny that a strong Azores High can be a good bet for settled weather, but it tends not to be as reliable sunshine wise, as westerly and/or northerly winds on the periphery of the high bringing cloud and bits and pieces of drizzle. However for those who don't like heat and are really just after "usable" weather then a strong Azores High sat to the S/SW often does the job well for southern and eastern parts of Britain.

[cheeky_monkey]

For such an event-packed Summer it would be a total let down if summer followed the theme of the last 5. The key player in bringing settled spells to the UK, the Azores High, will have to get its act together soon if the summer is to start well. But as 1983 showed, a poor June doesnt mean its curtains for summer.

June 1983 wasn't poor..rather warm and dry..spring 1983 was wet.

[rob48]

"Long range forecast's suggest this summer could be one of the better ones than we have had of late with temperatures above average"

I seem to recall a forecast last year that was very similar to that.

"Been so so long since I've felt genuinely warm sun on me - probably Oct 1st last year"

I remember that.

I booked a cottage in the Peak District for a nice walking holiday and it was too hot to walk after lunchtime so had to stay in the pub where there was some shade.

[Bottesford]

"Been so so long since I've felt genuinely warm sun on me - probably Oct 1st last year"

I remember that.

I booked a cottage in the Peak District for a nice walking holiday and it was too hot to walk after lunchtime so had to stay in the pub where there was some shade.

Sounds terrible how ever did you cope?

[rob48]

Sounds terrible how ever did you cope?

Stiff upper lip and kept the single malt in the fridge.

[Aaron]

For pronounced dry/sunny/settled interludes occurring on a near-nationwide basis, the best bet is generally a setup with the jet deflected northwards across our end of the Atlantic, promoting high pressure over western Europe- generally speaking the high then ends up over or just to the east of Britain and we don't get many issues with cloud coming in off the Atlantic or North Sea. Often in such situations the Azores High actually ends up quite suppressed but periodically throws up ridges and breakaway anticyclones which settle over western Europe.

It's true that the above setup is also associated with hot thundery months if accompanied by troughing mid-Atlantic, but if the mid-Atlantic trough is weak and/or stays well out to the west then significant dry spells can occur over the British Isles.

I won't deny that a strong Azores High can be a good bet for settled weather, but it tends not to be as reliable sunshine wise, as westerly and/or northerly winds on the periphery of the high bringing cloud and bits and pieces of drizzle. However for those who don't like heat and are really just after "usable" weather then a strong Azores High sat to the S/SW often does the job well for southern and eastern parts of Britain.

I don't see the appeal of hot weathe, temperatures in the low to mid 20's are fine for doing outside activities. Temperatures in the upper 20's and low 30's are better for swimming though.

I hope we get a lot of thunderstorms/downpours.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes, hate hot weather, but temps around 20-25C max is great, thats all is needed for a good summer, no need for 30C, no advantages to it at all, summer clothes can be worn easily at 20-25C

[Bottesford]

yes, hate hot weather, but temps around 20-25C max is great, thats all is needed for a good summer, no need for 30C, no advantages to it at all, summer clothes can be worn easily at 20-25C

I guess you could say I can wear winter clothes at 5c so why do you need -5c?

Thing is in the UK 20c by day means low teens in the evening which isn't quite sitting out in summer clothes weather. 30c means upper teens by night which remains t-shirt weather. Personally 25c is fine by day for me but it needs to hold up into the evening. No use being lovely and warm whilst in the office only for it to turn chilly when I get home.

I think the aim of many of us summer/warm lovers is that outdoors becomes at one with indoors. As in you wear the same clothes in and out, can have the same air at the same temperature in and out, can do the same things in and out.

Essentially outdoors becomes a place to live rather than a place to shield from as you move from one protective warm/dry bubble to another.

For that it must be warm enough and dry enough simple as - I mean who is currently sitting at their pc now at 9c with cold rain falling on them? No one I bet!

[Aaron]

I just prefer it to be cooler at night so I can sleep easily. I get frustrated when I get warm and sweaty.

[Bottesford]

An open skylight right above my bed solves that one!

But yes as a kid in my parents place I remember a number of toss and turn nights being too hot.

Don't bother me so much now as this place is cooler so great in summer, terrible in 80%+ of UK weather...

[damianslaw]

Mmm people should remember the meto debacle of 2009 and there promise of a decent summer - take all long range forecasts with a pinch of salt.

The last five summers have been preety similiar temp wise, with cooler months interspersed with some warmer months, none of them have brought extreme anamolous coolness or warmness. I doubt we are about to see another 2003 or 2006, or indeed even a 2005, but I also doubt another 2007 or 2008 is on the cards. I am hoping for some decent warmth and sunshine during the second half of the season, which in the main has been fair poorer than the first half in recent years. The last five Augusts have been terrible for warmth and sunshine, and July has often brought many miserable cool wet days.

[johnholmes]

One of the items which seems to be missing in this thread talking about temperatures is the dewpoint. Often high temperatures go with higher dewpoints-remember dewpoints whilst they will change in a 24 hour period with no change in airmass will not change as much as the temperature. Thus its possible to have reasonable temperatures by day, rather than overbearing heat, and still be pleasant in the evening. Not often I know but it is possible-watch the forecasts of dewpoint in summer in the evening rather than the temperature?

[Aaron]

Mmm people should remember the meto debacle of 2009 and there promise of a decent summer - take all long range forecasts with a pinch of salt.

The last five summers have been preety similiar temp wise, with cooler months interspersed with some warmer months, none of them have brought extreme anamolous coolness or warmness. I doubt we are about to see another 2003 or 2006, or indeed even a 2005, but I also doubt another 2007 or 2008 is on the cards. I am hoping for some decent warmth and sunshine during the second half of the season, which in the main has been fair poorer than the first half in recent years. The last five Augusts have been terrible for warmth and sunshine, and July has often brought many miserable cool wet days.

A summer like 1990 wouldn't be so bad.

[March Blizzard]

I too dislike warm nights, nothing more annoying than sweating in bed with moths and daddy long legs buzzing around your head! I would be rubbish in the jungle...

[AderynCoch]

I guess you could say I can wear winter clothes at 5c so why do you need -5c?

That's actually a big difference for me. If I'm walking around much I wouldn't even wear a coat at 5C, just a jumper.

[CreweCold]

I just prefer it to be cooler at night so I can sleep easily. I get frustrated when I get warm and sweaty.

Me too, no need for incessant, stifling heat.

[Bottesford]

Me too, no need for incessant, stifling heat.

Lucky for you then that isn't something we experience in this country then!

That's actually a big difference for me. If I'm walking around much I wouldn't even wear a coat at 5C, just a jumper.

If I'm walking around I'm the same - a light fleece. But now try sitting outside for 2-3 hours - still just in a jumper?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Warm nights are indeed a problem, especially in urban parts of the south. I enjoyed the hot spell during 22 June-4 July 2010 in Norwich, where temperatures got up to 25-29C by day and fell sharply to around 15C overnight, but it was a different story in central London where minima often didn't drop below 20C- I doubt I would have enjoyed that too much. The exceptionally hot months of August 1995 and July 2006 weren't too bad for hot uncomfortable nights away from city centres, despite getting too hot for some during the daytime, as clear skies and lack of wind and humidity led to temperatures dropping away overnight.

I can't think of many synoptic setups that would bring frequent sunshine, modest warmth, and frequent thundery activity, but one month that springs to mind is August 2000. A combination of short-lived anticyclonic interludes and a couple of periods with showery polar maritime air and minimal frontal activity produced a month with sunshine generally 10-30% above average, temperatures 0.5-1.5C above and 3 or 4 days with thunder in most parts of the country. There was one brief southerly incursion on the 25th/26th which brought thunderstorms overnight 25th/26th up the western side of the country. Most places were also quite dry, although in Northern Ireland it was an exceptional month for convective activity with Aldergrove having 31% above average sunshine, 67% above average rainfall and 7 days with thunder.

The more traditional route to settled weather and modest warmth is the August 1998 setup with a strong Azores High periodically ridging into the south. The month's statistics reflected how that setup generally pans out- it was a dry month except in western Scotland and Cumbria, sunny and quite warm in the south, but across much of Scotland, Ireland and northern England it was a breezy month with cool days, warm nights and near-average sunshine. If the high ridges into the north/west, though, it tends to be the west and north that gets warm sunshine, with the east being cloudiest.

[Weather-history]

Its the 100th anniversary this year of the worst summer month of them all: August 1912, It was the coldest, wettest and dullest August on record, a triple whammy.

[Thundery wintry showers]

For some perspective, Durham's stats for August 1912: mean max 15.4, rainfall 105.9mm, sunshine 56.8 hours. Durham has not had a lower average maximum than that in June (let alone August) since 1987, and the last duller December (!!) was back in 2007.

[Milhouse]

Would be nice to see something like this.

[Robbie Garrett]

Or this??