Summer 2012

[Summer Sun]

This chart would deliver one hell of a good summer if it were to happen

Fingers crossed it does.

[Milhouse]

If this summer turned out to be a memorable one it would proove all those doubters wrong that said that the pattern of April would stay with us on into the start of summer. I admit i had my niggling worries but the transformation thats set to take place this week just shows how quick things can change for the better. Early April showed just how things can soon change for the worse.

[Scorcher]

If this summer turned out to be a memorable one it would proove all those doubters wrong that said that the pattern of April would stay with us on into the start of summer. I admit i had my niggling worries but the transformation thats set to take place this week just shows how quick things can change for the better. Early April showed just how things can soon change for the worse.

Completely agree, and there were many of us who insisted that there were signs of a change but as this was outside the reliable time frame it was dismissed by many. Only about 5 days ago I recall a member calling the model outlook 'poor'. It just shows that things can change very quickly and often do, even when a pattern seems 'locked in'.

[Milhouse]

To be fair, for once we have seen a general improvement in the prospects for next week as opposed to the constant downgrades that characterised last Summer. If i recall right, the models were not looking all that good for the coming week 4/5 days ago with a coolish northerly rather than the warmer easterly that we look to be getting. The peak ensemble mean for next week has risen by about 5c during that time so its a warm spell that has very much improved over time.

[Eugene]

Only about 5 days ago I recall a member calling the model outlook 'poor'

Yes how dare he tell such plain face lies, ban him i say.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgicurrentgraph?CEL=C&ART=kartealle&LANG=en&JJ=2012&MM=05&TT=20&TIME=1330&TYP=temperatur&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&TIME=1337522765

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png - HP retrogressing towards the greenland area, not great for those looking for a very warm and settled start to summer it must be said.

[Frank Trough]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png - HP retrogressing towards the greenland area, not great for those looking for a very warm and settled start to summer it must be said.

yes, but that's the GFS 06z at t+192.

i wouldn't get too worried about that for now. many changes to come although until we get to that point. The points made above about this upcoming "improved spell" are all valid - and some members absence in the model output discussion over the last few days has been notable. They'll be back if that GFS chart gets to T+ 144 though.

Whatever the summer brings i'm relieved the doomongering about summer being over and the April pattern being "locked in" until spring 2013 etc has been wrong. In fact, this week gone may not have been very nice but it was a lot drier down here than was showed at T+ 162 and another dry week to comewill help those rivers stop looking like the colour of real ale.

[Methuselah]

Calm down, people!

[Thundery wintry showers]

To be fair, for once we have seen a general improvement in the prospects for next week as opposed to the constant downgrades that characterised last Summer. If i recall right, the models were not looking all that good for the coming week 4/5 days ago with a coolish northerly rather than the warmer easterly that we look to be getting. The peak ensemble mean for next week has risen by about 5c during that time so its a warm spell that has very much improved over time.

Yeah, I remember that a few days ago the models were showing what looked to me like a cool cloudy north-easterly type (though possibly sunny and warm in the north-west). On subsequent runs the models sent a ridge of high pressure southwards across the country which is producing the much sunnier and warmer prospects for midweek.

Still looks like we'll pick up a cooler and possibly cloudier east to north-easterly towards next weekend, but not until after a large majority of us have seen warm sunshine around Tuesday-Thursday.

[johnholmes]

Have I misread the title of this thread or stumbled into something about what GFS is showing at its furthest extreme which is barely into summer!!

puzzled

[ZONE 51]

My short forecast in the seasonal thread.

Edited May 21, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Summer Sun]

Weather Services International: Warmth Focused in Northern Europe This Summer

Weather Authority Expects Best Chance for Significant Heat in First Half of Summer with Increasing Likelihood of Broad-Based, Below-Normal Temps as Summer Progresses

Andover, MA, May 21, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (June-August) to average higher than normal across the Nordic region, UK, and the northern mainland, with below-normal temperatures confined to the Southeast.

“The last few summers have all been characterized by very warm, dry weather across much of eastern and southern Europe with relatively cool and wet conditions across the UK and western parts of the mainland and Nordic region,†said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “This pattern has been driven by extreme levels of North Atlantic blocking, which we do not expect to occur again this summer. This year, reduced levels of blocking should result in a distinctly different summer with high pressure driving warmer, drier and less windy conditions across northern and western Europe. Conversely, lower pressures will be associated with cooler, wetter and windier conditions across southern and eastern Europe. Finally, the emerging El Nino event suggests increased chances of more widespread, below-normal temperatures by late summer with the best chances for significant heat during the first half of summer.â€

In June, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK* – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except Mediterranean region

In July, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal, especially Southeast

In August, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except parts of Northeast

Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal

http://www.wsi.com/53f09913-4b27-4501-9d8a-9dbc570f079c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[Milhouse]

It seems that confidence is mounting for a notably different summer to the ones we've been used to.

[ZONE 51]

It seems that confidence is mounting for a notably different summer to the ones we've been used to

And because of the significant pattern change we get storms fired from the continent rather then Kent skimmers!

we can't forget the days when thunderstorms used to ride up from the s/se, this summer we may return to those days..

[ZONE 51]

A connection between snow in the Southeast and lack of continental imported thunderstorms over the last few years, something has changed, a new pattern, and this looks to bring back more of the humid thundery nights this summer that has been unseen in these parts for a long time.

Edited May 23, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Don]

I have a feeling that Summer 2012 will be a 'shades of 76' Summer. Not to my liking but at least some will be happy!

Edited May 24, 2012 by Don

[Alex]

The frustrations of the ECM 12z tonight showing northern blocking and that annoying Russian high! Arrggh, I will be mightly annoyed if it comes off and starts messing up our June!

[Luke McDonnell]

Hi,

Is that a pattern reminicent of more recent summers - like when Russia had that heatwave and we were stuck in a cool and unsettled regime? Why does a greenland high have to form just as meterological summer gets going? But I don't think it will be as bad as that and I think this summer should be a rather decent one - it is almost like the models have a mind to fustrate those who are looking for summery weather LOL!

Luke

[Weather-history]

The frustrations of the ECM 12z tonight showing northern blocking and that annoying Russian high! Arrggh, I will be mightly annoyed if it comes off and starts messing up our June!

Look at June 1995 and how that summer turned out.

[Alex]

Look at June 1995 and how that summer turned out.

1989 is a good analogue and most good summers have started rather disappointing, 76, 89, 90 and 95 all come to that category. I'm just worried that we will get another 2011, 2008 or 2007 cool wet summer and I think for once we are overdue something above average in terms of sunshine or warmth.

One thing that I have spotted when I have had a look at the last ten years of summers is that we have had warm ones, cool ones and wet ones but not many dry ones? Even 2006 and 2003 come into the average category for rainfall. Mr Data what were the driest top 5 summers? 76 was probably near the top.

[Alex]

Hi,

Is that a pattern reminicent of more recent summers - like when Russia had that heatwave and we were stuck in a cool and unsettled regime? Why does a greenland high have to form just as meterological summer gets going? But I don't think it will be as bad as that and I think this summer should be a rather decent one - it is almost like the models have a mind to fustrate those who are looking for summery weather LOL!

Luke

The Greenland high seems to of been a more common occurrence in recent years, 2009 and 2011 were probably two Junes where this pattern was evident ESP early in the month. The Russian high also has been a problem as we are often caught under a trough. 2010 was one exception where the pattern meant southeastern areas was caught under the intensifying of the Russian high with a link up from the Azores which meant a dry very warm July with the trough stuck to the north of the country.

My worry about this summer is the dissapearance of the Azores high which is progged on the models this evening to be a non starter, most decent summers have included a strong Azores high which ridges into the UK.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Many of the famous hot/sunny summers weren't particularly reliant on a strong Azores High ridging into the UK. That setup was pretty rare (and short-lived when it did occur) during the 1995 summer quarter, and in 1976 it was rare until the last week of July. The setup was also infrequent during the recent summers of 2003 and 2006, though it did put in some appearances during mid-late August 2003 and mid-late June 2006.

Some of them were certainly assisted by it, e.g. the first half of August 1976 and the first half of July 1989, but if it's a hot and/or sunny summer you're after then the lack of a strong Azores High is not a concern as long as we can get frequent height/pressure rises over central and western Europe.

On the other hand if the desired outcome is dry weather and modest warmth then you'll struggle to get that without a ridging Azores High scenario, as you really need some input of cool airmasses and/or cloud cover to prevent temperatures from building widely into the mid to high 20s under an extensive high in summer- the winds from the north-western quarter of the compass associated with a ridging Azores High tend to facilitate this. The Euro high/Atlantic trough setup, conversely, tends to default to hot as it often gives us frequent southerly winds.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The frustrations of the ECM 12z tonight showing northern blocking and that annoying Russian high! Arrggh, I will be mightly annoyed if it comes off and starts messing up our June!

Would be bliss to me personally....we can't all be happy though can we.

[Backtrack]

I would love a Spanish Plume at some point.

Usually crystal clear skies, with bearable, dry heat, followed by an almighty thundery breakdown.

Wouldn't mind a few 30C'ers either.

[Wynn D Woo]

1989 is a good analogue and most good summers have started rather disappointing, 76, 89, 90 and 95 all come to that category. I'm just worried that we will get another 2011, 2008 or 2007 cool wet summer and I think for once we are overdue something above average in terms of sunshine or warmth.

One thing that I have spotted when I have had a look at the last ten years of summers is that we have had warm ones, cool ones and wet ones but not many dry ones? Even 2006 and 2003 come into the average category for rainfall. Mr Data what were the driest top 5 summers? 76 was probably near the top.

Last year was a very dry summer, I didnt even need to cut the lawn through the whole of August. What was unusual was how dull it was too!