Summer 2012

[Scorcher]

I've lived in both Cleadon (Tyne and Wear) and Lancaster (NW Lancs) and have generally found that the weather is duller and wetter in Lancaster during autumn and winter, but sunnier with similar rainfall during spring and early summer. Mid to late summer is wetter in Lancaster but with similar amounts of sunshine. Comparisons between Manchester and Leeds will probably yield a similar outcome.

It's always going to be subjective as to which climate is "better" anyway.

Yes I agree with those statements. Interestingly looking at the statistics it seems that although there is less total rainfall over the year in Leeds, there are 172 days a year with precipitation whilst in Manchester there are only 140 days a year. As you say though, 'better' is subjective- there are Netweather members who enjoy cold, cloudy conditions all year round as well as those who enjoy warmer, sunnier weather and thunderstorms.

[Weather-history]

The first half of June looks poor it has to be said.

[Aaron]

You make these sweeping statements without anything to back them up- the only thing I can find statistically is that it's drier on your side of the Pennines. If you're talking temperature, it's also cooler over the year in Leeds than in Manchester in both summer and winter. I have family in Leeds and we'd often drive over the Pennines when I was a kid and it would often be foggy in Leeds, whereas the western side of the Pennines would be clear. Fog is comparatively rare in Manchester.

Leeds has cooler winters but I'm almost certain Leeds has warmer summers - take no notice of the Wiki figures, by the way, they're either for a nearby station or for Leeds Bradford Airport.

I calculated the averages for Leeds Weather Centre between 1986 and 2003 and in July Leeds had an average maximum of 21.2c and a minimum of 12.6c. This is not long enough for an average but it's still warmer than Manchester in the summer and considerably drier. Even Hull, virtually on the coast, has far warmer summers than Manchester, much drier and sunshine is probably slightly higher too. Sunshine does not vary much at all, both between 1300 hours and 1400 hours. Fog is far more common here but if it's summer heat you're after Leeds is the better choice, you only need to compare the records for both places (33.7c for Manchester and 34.4c for Leeds).

So no I am not making 'sweeping statements', just because you don't like what I'm saying doesn't mean it isn't true. And yes it's true, best is subjective, but even so, if you want more reliable snowfall, Leeds is by far the better choice and if you want summer heatwaves, I'd say Leeds is the better choice, especially when you consider Manchester is further south than Leeds at a similar elevation..

Anyway maybe we have taken this thread off topic too much??

Edited June 2, 2012 by Aaron

[Scorcher]

Leeds has cooler winters but I'm almost certain Leeds has warmer summers - take no notice of the Wiki figures, by the way, they're either for a nearby station or for Leeds Bradford Airport.

I calculated the averages for Leeds Weather Centre between 1986 and 2003 and in July Leeds had an average maximum of 21.2c and a minimum of 12.6c. This is not long enough for an average but it's still warmer than Manchester in the summer and considerably drier. Even Hull, virtually on the coast, has far warmer summers than Manchester, much drier and sunshine is probably slightly higher too. Sunshine does not vary much at all, both between 1300 hours and 1400 hours. Fog is far more common here but if it's summer heat you're after Leeds is the better choice, you only need to compare the records for both places (33.7c for Manchester and 34.4c for Leeds).

So no I am not making 'sweeping statements', just because you don't like what I'm saying doesn't mean it isn't true. And yes it's true, best is subjective, but even so, if you want more reliable snowfall, Leeds is by far the better choice and if you want summer heatwaves, I'd say Leeds is the better choice, especially when you consider Manchester is further south than Leeds at a similar elevation..

Anyway maybe we have taken this thread off topic too much??

The Leeds Weather Centre is not an official station so I think we can discount that- the Manchester averages are not 1986-2003 so you can't possibly compare like with like. As for summer heatwaves, these are usually produced by southerly or south-easterly winds, both of which Manchester is in a favoured location for. The all-time record is just a stastical quirk- 34C was forecast for Manchester in July 2006 but oddly only 32C was recorded when Liverpool Airport reached 35C.

[summer blizzard]

South easterly winds always deliver clear skies in Leeds so not an issue.

What matters to me is winter and from my years of being on here and observations, Leeds is colder, snowier and drier (only Newcastle and Norwich are snowier cities in England).

[SP1986]

The rainfall per year for this location, is about the same as Leeds, but it is generally warmer here than in Leeds. That said my location is in a rain shadow, which is fairly similar to the Pennines in height. That's why you can't really generalise in these situations although admittedly, for places like Blackpool, and Lancashire generally, rainfall will be higher than Leeds (av 660mm/year)

[AderynCoch]

Another factor to consider is that the last few summers have provided a dearth of synoptics which would favour the west. Honestly, when was the last time synoptics like those a week ago occurred during the June-August quarter? I can only think of early June 2007, before things quickly went south.

[reef]

Summer statistics from the MetOffice:

Max Temps:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Min Temps:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Mean Temps:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Rainfall:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Rain Days >1.0mm

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Sunshine:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Leeds has a slightly warmer mean max temp, but Manchester has a a much higher mean min temp so is slightly warmer overall. Manchester is wetter and has more rain days than Leeds and is slightly duller.

These figures are generally similar for the year as a whole. Manchester is warmer than Leeds, probably due to the UHI effect. Ironically the furthest place North with an annual mean of above 10C is Hull.

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_17.gif

[Methuselah]

That's why Manchester was at the centre of the old cotton industry, reef.

[johnholmes]

In the discussion re the relative weather merits of Manchester or Leeds one factor not being commented on is the elevation of parts of each city.

Parts of north, NW and NE Manchester CITY not suburbs are quite high. Equally so are parts of the western edge of Leeds CITY.

Differing weather situations will favour one city or the other, I've worked at both Weather Centres but I'm afraid I have not got the weather data for either of them. To settle the differences why not e mail the Met Office and ask for the weather statistics for both Weather Centres?

I did write a paper, no idea if its still around, for the building industry whilst at Manchester regarding the number of consecutive wet days. It showed that runs of these were not much different from Southhampton surprisingly. It also seemed to show that Test Matches at Old Trafford should be held in a different month to what they were in the mid 70's. For the life of me I cannot remember which this suggested. If I can find my original copy I will post it somewhere in Net Weather.

the comment later on the thread about the cotton industry is quite valid.

Rainfall is also quite different on a NW-SE axis of Greater Manchester, although Cheshire-re its canal system also had many cotton mills, but these tended to be around the main level of the Macclesfield canal, about 600ft or so.

Edited June 2, 2012 by johnholmes

[Scorcher]

Summer statistics from the MetOffice:

Max Temps:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Min Temps:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Mean Temps:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Rainfall:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Rain Days >1.0mm

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Sunshine:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

Leeds has a slightly warmer mean max temp, but Manchester has a a much higher mean min temp so is slightly warmer overall. Manchester is wetter and has more rain days than Leeds and is slightly duller.

These figures are generally similar for the year as a whole. Manchester is warmer than Leeds, probably due to the UHI effect. Ironically the furthest place North with an annual mean of above 10C is Hull.

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_17.gif

Thanks for that analysis, have you got the statistics specifically for the cities? The Manchester statistics are generally from the airport which is semi-rural so I doubt the influence of UHI effect.

[Milhouse]

The first half of June looks poor it has to be said.

Yes, the models look diabolical for anything decently warm and settled. But i guess Summer has only just begun.

[summer blizzard]

Elevation is a good point as parts of northern and western Leeds are in excess of 200m.

[Aaron]

The Leeds Weather Centre is not an official station so I think we can discount that- the Manchester averages are not 1986-2003 so you can't possibly compare like with like. As for summer heatwaves, these are usually produced by southerly or south-easterly winds, both of which Manchester is in a favoured location for. The all-time record is just a stastical quirk- 34C was forecast for Manchester in July 2006 but oddly only 32C was recorded when Liverpool Airport reached 35C.

Leeds Weather Centre WAS an official Met station.

Yeah Manchester gets fohn effects during SE winds but that doesn't mean it will be warmer, it usually isn't.

Reef makes a good pint also, Manchester has warmer nights than Leeds, Leeds has never had a night warmer than 20C but Manchester has, but days in Leeds are usually warmer in summer.

Edited June 2, 2012 by Aaron

[Aaron]

South easterly winds always deliver clear skies in Leeds so not an issue.

What matters to me is winter and from my years of being on here and observations, Leeds is colder, snowier and drier (only Newcastle and Norwich are snowier cities in England).

As mentioned it depends on what you want. Winter is my favourite season so I prefer it to be colder in winter rather than warmer in summer.

[J10]

Another factor to consider is that the last few summers have provided a dearth of synoptics which would favour the west. Honestly, when was the last time synoptics like those a week ago occurred during the June-August quarter? I can only think of early June 2007, before things quickly went south.

Not sure I agree with that in fact many recent Junes have favoured Western areas, especially south western areas, it is normally the second half of summers that has shown more of unfavourable east west split. I also think that it has been more of a NW SE split rather than a straight east west split as well.

In addition to the excellent charts shown by Reef, it is also available at more detail locally

http://www.metoffice....html#nwengland

[AderynCoch]

Yes I was referring to the northwest in comparison with the northeast, as per the discussion.

[johnholmes]

Most of you know my views about trying to use comparisons of past months, seasons, years to attempt to predict what will happen in the future!

Mull these figures over-I make no comment.

This May has recorded the highest number of consecutive days with temperatures of 24C or more, probably as far back as anyone has any memories. I suggest this as my data covers 1997 on and I have the data for RAF Finningley for 1942-1995.

Previous consecutive runs in May were in 1944, 1947, 1952, 1959 and 2010 of 4 or 6(1959), this year it showed 9.

The CET values for those summers ere

1944=14.4 16.4 16.1

1947=15.5 17.0 18.6

1952=14.4 16.8 15.8

1959=15.2 17.3 17.2

2010=15.2 17.1 15.3

The CET averages are

1961-90=14.2 16.0 15.8

1971-2000=14.1 16.5 16.2

1981-2000=14.5 16.7 16.4

Edited June 3, 2012 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

The south-west was particularly cool and cloudy relative to other parts of the country in July/August during 2008 and 2009 (though as Jackone rightly pointed out, it was also one of the warmest and sunniest regions relative to normal during June in both years). July 2010 certainly had a stronger NW-SE type split.

August 2010 and mid to late July 2011 had synoptics which favoured the west for warmth, sun and dryness relative to the east.

[SP1986]

This June looks like it will come in below average, though not very cold by any means, maybe half a degree to a degree below average as things stand.

[Scorcher]

This June looks like it will come in below average, though not very cold by any means, maybe half a degree to a degree below average as things stand.

At the moment yes, but most thought May would end up well below average even around mid-month. Just shows how quick things can turn around.

[SP1986]

True, we don't know what will happen.. but a wet cool June, is a fairly normal June, so I'm not too worried. It would be a little depressing for those with SAD if it turned out to be a dull, cool, wet month but plenty of time left.

[Scorcher]

I agree, I'm not worried either. Too much despair in the MOD at the moment. It's probably best not to look at the models for a week or so if you're like me and get down when the outlook is as it is at the moment. I think the comments in the MOD depress me more than the outlook itself. As for SAD, I consider myself a sufferer but I don't have the same issues in summer, even in a prolonged wet spell due to the long daylight hours.

[Weather-history]

but a wet cool June, is a fairly normal June,

Forgive me but that doesn't make sense as wet suggests above normal and cool, below normal therefore it's not normal, a fairly normal June would be close to long term averages.

[J10]

The south-west was particularly cool and cloudy relative to other parts of the country in July/August during 2008 and 2009 (though as Jackone rightly pointed out, it was also one of the warmest and sunniest regions relative to normal during June in both years). July 2010 certainly had a stronger NW-SE type split.

August 2010 and mid to late July 2011 had synoptics which favoured the west for warmth, sun and dryness relative to the east.

There was a succession of summers after 2007 when June was the best month by a country mile, July quite often an absolute stinker, and quite often extremely wet, with August then somewhere in between, so after a succession of good summers 2002-2006, 2007 and 2008 were both pretty poor.

2009-2011 have not been so bad. 2009 was a summer on a knife edge after June and July, and August tipped it into the below average category to me. Mid July 2009 was deeply annoying as my 2 wk summer break coincided with a dreadful period of weather. Both 2010 and 2011 were closer to average, 2010 had a more average August. Summer 2011 had the best July since 2006, [not saying much mind] July 2011 tended to be sunnier around the coasts, due to NW winds, locally we get quite a lot of protection and quite often the best and sunniest weather in such situations, not hot by any means.

A slight fear for me is that as June has been the best summer month, 2012 is not looking to be the best of Junes at least to start but hopefully we will get a decent end to the summer, which tends to stick in memory.