Summer 2012

[summer blizzard]

I am going to shock you all now.

Whilst most people want summer warmth i only want hot and sunny weather from May-July, given that most of the first half of this period is going to have been wasted i would rather we got summer over and done with and go cool and wet, breaking records if possible straight into a cold Autumn/winter.

Interesting factoid is that the last summer to have all three months above the 1981-2010 average was 2003 and June 2012 certainly does not look inspiring at the moment.

[Eugene]

breaking records if possible straight into a cold Autumn

They are even rarer than hot summers currently, it would be refreshing to have a cold autumn but very unlikely i'm afraid currently unless we see a big shift in weather patterns to a more northerly blocking pattern dominating the three autumn months, the northerly blocking pattern we have had dominating this spring and which looks likely for the first half of June at least seems be very rare in the autumn which is a shame.

[Scorcher]

Think that an average summer is pretty much the favourite now with alternating cool and warm spells. I am actually pretty cross with myself as I went for 15.9 in the June CET thread when for May I think I did a lot better when the correct figure comes out. Does seem at the moment that we are in a bit of a June monsoon scenario of which somehow will be broken up at some point.

Don't despair about that estimate as I went for 12.2 in May and thought I was going to miles off around mid-month. The coming week is going to be unsettled but not cold, many places in the CET zone could reach the high teens and I imagine night time minima will hold up well. There's still a long way to go and plenty of time for warmer conditions.

[Evening thunder]

I am going to shock you all now.

Whilst most people want summer warmth i only want hot and sunny weather from May-July, given that most of the first half of this period is going to have been wasted i would rather we got summer over and done with and go cool and wet, breaking records if possible straight into a cold Autumn/winter.

Interesting factoid is that the last summer to have all three months above the 1981-2010 average was 2003 and June 2012 certainly does not look inspiring at the moment.

Ahh that would explain a couple of the posts in threads like the MOD thread recently then.

IMO, just because we have an unsettled and relatively cool couple of weeks in the outlook now, does not leave me the slightest bit concerned over the weather prospects in, lets say, August. A bit like a mild 2 weeks in December wouldn't make me think Jan or Feb couldn't possibly be cold.

Edited June 4, 2012 by Stormmad26

[sebastiaan1973]

This sunday Twente (in the east of the Netherlands) recorded a maximum temperature of 8.9c. This is a new record for the summer. Never was there a lower maximum temperature at an official station in the summer.

[Aaron]

Ahh that would explain a couple of the posts in threads like the MOD thread recently then.

IMO, just because we have an unsettled and relatively cool couple of weeks in the outlook now, does not leave me the slightest bit concerned over the weather prospects in, lets say, August. A bit like a mild 2 weeks in December wouldn't make me think Jan or Feb couldn't possibly be cold.

By August the days are shortening rapidly, I think people prefer warmth around this time of the year because the days are much longer.. kind of feels wasted. I see where they are coming from too, when it's cloudy you can't see the twilight really..

[Evening thunder]

By August the days are shortening rapidly, I think people prefer warmth around this time of the year because the days are much longer.. kind of feels wasted. I see where they are coming from too, when it's cloudy you can't see the twilight really..

That is true, but then it doesn't leave me concerned over July yet, or even late June much. I was just thinking of the school holidays when more people tend to go on holiday etc. I do really like the light at this time of years and these late evenings, especially in warm summery weather, though I can't expect it to be good all the time in the UK. I guess I also prefer a mix of weather to keep my interest entertained rather than one type for ages. We do have until into July before there is less daylight than there is today, so there is time for some hopefully better prospects to emerge.

(on a purely selfish point of view I'd be happy for the weather to not do much until after my last exams on the 19th June, after which I can enjoy the weather and the outdoors more)

[Robbie Garrett]

This will make you laugh, I've just heard they are de-icing some aircraft this morning up in Manchester!!! IN JUNE!!

[Scorcher]

This will make you laugh, I've just heard they are de-icing some aircraft this morning up in Manchester!!! IN JUNE!!

When it's 15C at Manchester Airport??

[Robbie Garrett]

When it's 15C at Manchester Airport??

That's what I was thinking, I know that below 10*C the ENG ANTI ICE is turned on, and the WING ANTI-ICE is turned on if there is visible moisture etc.

Below 5 or 0*C I believe it is, the aircraft would need to be checked after every flight for ice accretion, before flaps/slats are raised.

The airline looks to be Thomson (Tui), the only explanation I can think of is a captain that didn't like the looks of en-route weather/icing?

[Scorcher]

That's what I was thinking, I know that below 10*C the ENG ANTI ICE is turned on, and the WING ANTI-ICE is turned on if there is visible moisture etc.

Below 5 or 0*C I believe it is, the aircraft would need to be checked after every flight for ice accretion, before flaps/slats are raised.

The airline looks to be Thomson (Tui), the only explanation I can think of is a captain that didn't like the looks of en-route weather/icing?

Hmm I don't know anything about this, it does seem surprising that they would need to de-ice a plane in such high temperatures though!

[A Winter's Tale]

Personally, it has by far not been the best start to a summer for me but it certainly isn't the worst start either. Quite changeable and rarely constantly wet so you get a variety and change in conditions very quickly. But I would prefer some longer spells of sunshine and warmer temperatures, and wouldn't want this current pattern to continue, a variety of synoptics from high pressure over the UK to Spannish Plumes and so on would be ideal for summer. This weather will do for now, but I'd love to see a change around mid next week to something else.

But in reality, we are in a set-up that isn't great for warm and sunny or popular summer weather, and no change in this current theme is certain so we have to wait until something more substantial appears in the models. I hope that we aren't in for a northern blocking dominated summer, I'd would rather a summer dominated by dry and hot conditions than this, though preferably I like weekly warm spells followed by short wet interludes with showers, backed by a variety of synoptics in the NH. I'll be intruigued to see how long this current pattern continues and what weather we can see in it, and what the rest of summer would have in store in terms of weather conditions and synoptics.

[Richard2901]

An awful start to summer here. So bad that the first week of summer has returned a colder mean maximum than the last week of winter

23rd - 29th February 2012:

Mean Max: 12.9C

Highest Max: 16.5C

1st-7th June 2012:

Mean Max: 12.1C

Highest Max: 14.2C.

While there have always been summer days colder than the mildest days of winter it really is ridculous when we're now seeing on virtually an annual basis summer weeks or even months that are colder/duller than what we had in winter. Like we have no seasonal variety at all any more.

The last three days really have been dire. Murky and depressing and reminiscent of June 2007. A grim outlook too. It could be in to the second half of June before I record my first summer day as warm as last Christmas day when it reached 14.6C .

[ZONE 51]

It is quite some change from the heatwave! i like unusual weather, it makes things interesting.

I remain confident that we will return to or at least move into some warmer conditions soon, but this is most likely in the south, towards the end of the month i still expect hot weather and it looks like it could turn out a thundery month, more of a moist humid airmass with the warmth, although i said slightly below average rainfall and most fronts to affect the west, it has turned out that the low pressures are tracking different to what i had thought, this giving widespread rainfall, and i can tell you i didn't expect a storm!(at the time i wrote my summer forecast)

Edited June 8, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Weather-history]

This June is starting to bring memories of June 1987 which was horrendous.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's summer forecast can be found here http://forum.netweat...00#entry2314500

[summer blizzard]

mei

2005

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qbo

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ao

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Strongest analogues

2005 - aab

2003 - aaa

1998 - bbb

1994 - /ab

1987 - bbb

1979 - bbb

[Milhouse]

3 good ones there, balanced out by 3 bad ones.

[Methuselah]

3 good ones there, balanced out by 3 bad ones.

As is often the case, when a short-term, apparent, pattern is analysed over longer time-scales, it all-but disappears...In time, I suspect, all the talk of a 'Modern Summer' will go the way of the equivalent 'winter' - down the toilet. But only time will tell...

[Weather-history]

The first 10 days of June have recorded about the same amount of rainfall for England and Wales as it did for the whole of summer 1995.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The first 10 days of June have recorded about the same amount of rainfall for England and Wales as it did for the whole of summer 1995.

With a further deluge to come...this weekend.

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo has tweeted the following today

Latest EC 32 day continues to support other medium range models with a more settled spell of weather mid and late next week on-wards...

That's the good part, now the bad part

...However, the build of pressure looks temporary & the early signs now for the opening week of July are for low pressure to affect the UK

https://twitter.com/#!/MattHugo81

So if this is how it does pan out it would be in line with what Brian Gaze of the weather outlook has forecast

The second half of June is expected to see a spell of dry, fine and settled conditions developing and bringing above average temperatures. At times it could become very warm in southern and central parts with the possibility of thundery conditions. In the west and north west temperatures may be pegged back with a higher risk of unsettled and cooler periods of weather which could push further east at times.

July

Fine and very warm weather is expected to develop at times during the first half of the month, although early on there may well be mixed weather with some rain and lower temperatures. Fine, settled and very warm or perhaps even hot conditions are possible towards the middle of July.

http://theweatherout...eather-forecast

[Slowpoke]

Next week looks quite pleasent. If it turns out that way, my forecast for June will have been scarily accurate!

[Evening thunder]

I don't mind a bit of rain but the lack of warmth is starting to get on my nerves, on the ECM this morning we can't even get 5C+ 850hpa temps by the 24th June!

Really has been a lack of sunshine here this month (far more so than April's wet weather). Overcast again today with probably no sun all day and a probable sub-14C max.

[Summer Sun]

It's amazing how I had BBQ's at the end of March yet 14 day's into June and not one says it all really