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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Invest 94S has become TC 19S, a couple hundred miles northeast of Timor, and a few hundred miles north of Darwin, Australia. This track map gives more of an idea of where this cyclone is:

sh1912.gif

19S is under moderate northeasterly shear currently which is displacing much of the convection southwest of the LLC. As subtropical ridging builds over the Top End of Australia, 19S should be pulled southwestwards into an area of decreased shear. This should allow 19S to strengthen modestly before the cyclone reaches high shear again as it tracks into the southeast Indian Ocean (north of the Pilbara coast of Australia). At the moment, 19S is not expected to impact the Australian coast, though of course, as ever, this could change.

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Posted
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Altitude: 189 m, Density Altitude: 6 m
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical Cyclone, Blizzard, Thunderstorm, Freezing Cold Day and Heat Wave.
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Altitude: 189 m, Density Altitude: 6 m
Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

19S was downgraded to a remnant low this afternoon but looks like it could potentially be making a comeback. Shear got the better of the cyclone this afternoon and reduced it to a weakening low with little associated convection. JTWC declared 19S a remnant low noting that it could re-develop as shear is lower south of the system. If current convective trends persist, 19S could re-generate into a tropical cyclone again.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the remnant low of 19S. The system has developed central convection with formative banding as it continues to head southwards into lower shear. There is a good chance of the remnant low becoming a tropical cyclone again within the next 24hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania

I am thinking this is quite unusual, I am not aware of cyclones in Australian waters before, this time of year

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Its uncommon but not unheard of. The most recent example I can recall is cyclone Pierre in May 2007.

As for 19S, it surprisingly dissipated rather than redeveloping.

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