Model Watch For Tour 3

[Paul Sherman]

Well we are at that Timeframe for our Tour 3 Guests.

So please feel free to Update this thread over the next 10 days with your thoughts and what the current thinking is for Netweather's Tour 3.

Key dates are 21st May until 30th May 2012.(GFS Goes out to T384 Or 16 days)

Regards

Paul S

[Dorsetbred]

Well......

At 384hr out, the Jet stream almost looks to be dropping it's pants over Nebraska.

Oh how you love Nebraska

[Nick F]

Nothing shouting major outbreak in the models right up to t+384 atm, the jet still too far north of any juicy ait that may return north. Hopefully things will change ... as they normally do.

Even if the 06z came off, there would be some opportunites over the Nern Plains for text forecasts and few slight risks - though unlikely anything more severe, given lack of decent moisture return.

[Tom Lynch]

Early days and as always i am optimistic

Posted this just I wanted to post something

[Cookie]

* crosses everything *

[Dorsetbred]

Things might be picking up, looking at the jet, something breaks loose.

[Stu Robinson]

Tour 3 will be fine

[Paul]

All of the info packs have now gone out to our t3 guests, so please let me know if you haven't received yours..

Paul

[Nick F]

21st May looking good on 00z GFS from the central Plains up to the Great Lakes for possible severe storms, a trough passing through from the west with reasonable strong upper winds with it, good CAPE in place too, though likely capped as far south as Oklahoma:

ECM looking fairly similar for 21st too, with a trough passing through the northern Plains.

[Supercell 89]

Looking good for Kansas and Oklahoma as well to my untrained eye looking on the GFS

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=05&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=12&fhour=192&parameter=LFTX&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Tom Lynch]

So thinking , on the early progs (and this is very very even extremely premature) one must be thinking that after collection at DWF/motel we might need to consider heading towards Norman.

this is open for debate of course

Tom

[D-J-V]

Hmmmmmm

[Nick F]

Still looking ok for storms across central Plains (OK and KS) 20/21st, a cold front shifting the moisture further south by 22nd - rich theta-e and big CAPE, though would prefer to see stronger winds at 500mb:

Theta-e and CAPE

precip:

500mb winds:

The the jet still way north and the jet max displaced from where the rich moisture is, all a long way off though and upper winds may become more favourable.

Atm, like Tom says, a trek north up the I-35 ...

[Tom Lynch]

And then a little later in the week

[Cookie]

so things looking good or bad? or somewhere in between?

[Supercell 89]

so things looking good or bad? or somewhere in between?

Looking good for some storms on the Saturday and Sunday in Oklahoma and Kansas but there isn't much in the way of upper winds, but that could all change of course

[Cookie]

I know still a long way off yet, just cant help but get a tad excited!

[jimbo36]

Already salivating at the thought of those lunchtime 22oz strawberry milkshakes

[Paul Sherman]

As per Usual looking like a Pattern Change just in Time for the end of May - The 23rd to 30th Period looks interesting from the latest Models.

One to Watch!

[Dorsetbred]

As per Usual looking like a Pattern Change just in Time for the end of May - The 23rd to 30th Period looks interesting from the latest Models.

One to Watch!

Looks like the warmer air is also beginning to show itself

[Gorky]

I've been keeping a little bit of an eye on things for the last week or so but not a huge amount due to a family illness and then a broken computer. Models have generally been pretty poor but the GFS seems to be coming around a bit at the moment.The last couple of runs have had plenty to like in FI, especially from the 23rd onwards although the big thing plagueing the runs is the generation of some tropical lows in the Gulf. These stop decent moisture return and really muck up the models. The GFS is somewhat notorious for generation a lot of spurious tropical systems, so I'm hoping this isn't actually going to happen. This mornings 0z has this feature much weaker in FI and the outlook is much better. I still think it will be quiet for this week but with chase opportunities for those wishing to put in the miles. I wouldn't actually mind for it to stay calm until after the 20th so I don't have top make a choice between seeing the eclipse and going storm chasing

[Tom Lynch]

Ok I have been talking with John and all tour 3 guests on the Dallas flight can meet at Crown Rivers Wetherspoons in T5 . My flight arrives in about 9.35 and so will be in hall around 10. I will be not wearing the chickens head might be seen as foul play. boom boom.

Bruce

[Supercell 89]

Ok I have been talking with John and all tour 3 guests on the Dallas flight can meet at Crown Rivers Wetherspoons in T5 . My flight arrives in about 9.35 and so will be in hall around 10. I will be not wearing the chickens head might be seen as foul play. boom boom.

Bruce

Hi Tom

Sounds like a good idea, i'll be there from 8

[stevofunnelcl]

Great Idea Tom,

I'll be there, just after 9

Got a few more things to throw in the case

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=usacharts;sess

to my untrained eye, some of that looks pretty tasty (dewpoints, cape, lifted index)

v excited

[Cookie]

cant wait