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Model Watch For Tour 3


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Not bad looking 12 GFS for the Plains for early part of tour 3 witha strong jet and amplifying trough coming in off the Pacific and headed for the central Plains, shame its 7-10 days out though!

post-1052-0-88296700-1337118482_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-07756300-1337118466_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Stone,Staffs
  • Location: Stone,Staffs

i'm leaving home early to make sure I have some "just in case time" with traffic.So I should be there fairly early. About 8 also.

But I'm not going to be shouting "supercell 89 ,is there a supercell 89 in the house"

probably get arrested for some kind af threat!

need to catch you on face book and get a couple of mob numbers

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Posted
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland

I get into T1 at about 8:45 so hope to be in T5 at 9:30 ish. See you all then. I have not a single thing done for this. Time to get the finger out.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

Is it worth wearing the old 2011 NW t shirts to find each other?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

washed? we don't do that on tour!!shok.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Medium range CPC 500mb prognostic and EC/GFS comparison charts looking encouraging this evening for tour 3 on the run up to Memorial Weekend, with a trough developing over the Mountain West and edging towards the mid-west - which will be more favourable for severe outbreaks across the central/northern Plains.

6-10 day H500 prognostic chart:

post-1052-0-97153800-1337203933_thumb.gi

ECM/GFS 8-10 day H500 comparison:

post-1052-0-39127500-1337204029_thumb.gi

Looks quite good end of next week and into memorial weekend on 12z GFS, though long-way off for now and subject to change:

post-1052-0-69965900-1337204258_thumb.gipost-1052-0-65068100-1337204271_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Models starting to now firm up on a possible Significant Event for Wed & Thurs 23/24th May and if the Euro verifies more days after this as well, could be a busy Tour 3, looks like a MAJOR Pattern Change is about to occur.

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: South West London
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy
  • Location: South West London
cray.gif < this is me on the flight home on Sunday!
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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

cray.gif < this is me on the flight home on Sunday!

then stay on dave, i'm sure we can make room for one more good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Fingers crossed, here's some current stats for this year:

There has not been a single tornado reported in Oklahoma since the early morning hours of May 1, when EF1 tornadoes ripped through parts of northern Oklahoma near Nowata and Welch. An average May will see 21 tornadoes carve across the Sooner State. As recently as 2010, there were a record-tying 90 Oklahoma May tornadoes.

Furthermore, there hasn't even been a single report of severe weather (hail, strong/damaging straight-line winds, or tornadoes)since May 4.

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

For all those people meeting at Heathrow on Saturday morning I will have a netweather chase tee shirt and a Cheers hat

Tom

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Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire

Hi Tom,

I just messaged you about Sat :)

Hope the current forecasts for the Jet to drop south hold, the models have been hinting at it for some time now.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Yep, 00z GFS continues with a pattern change for the better next week, nice strong 500mb jet coming in later next week towards Memorial Weekend across the Plains and further south where the moisture is, which will help increase severe potential and probabilities for tornadoes:

post-1052-0-54578400-1337322297_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-74995000-1337322306_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-64834000-1337322395_thumb.gi

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