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Model Watch For Tour 3


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Hope this chart is correct for you guys next week. At last some energy for some decent storms if this right!

post-6830-0-00434000-1337324696_thumb.pn

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

For all those people meeting at Heathrow on Saturday morning I will have a netweather chase tee shirt and a Cheers hat

Tom

And you think you'll be noticeable, stick with the chicken Tom?

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

That's me over on the left

See you at Crown Rivers Wetherspoons, tomorrow :)

Nice to see the jet returning south from it's holiday over Canada

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

When will the model watch for T4 be out? I am no good at reading charts!

Edited by lewisosd
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

When will the model watch for T4 be out? I am no good at reading charts!

Still a tad early yet, does this help.

There, will be and there wont be, the possible opportunity for some possibly light or even heavy thunder storms which may or may not have embedded tornado's which in turn might or might not have large hail stones within.

Where?

Well, it might or might not happen in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado

But.... early signs point their way towards Eastern Kansas.

Does that help?

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Still a tad early yet, does this help.

There, will be and there wont be, the possible opportunity for some possibly light or even heavy thunder storms which may or may not have embedded tornado's which in turn might or might not have large hail stones within.

Where?

Well, it might or might not happen in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado

But.... early signs point their way towards Eastern Kansas.

Does that help?

This helps ENOURMOUSLY lol! Guess I should just be patient and sit it out. Can't help to be getting excited though!

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

The upper level (300mb) wind fields certainly make a welcome shift south next week with a reasonable jet pushing across the mid CONUS by Weds/Thurs - always a good sign of decent upper vectors to get the storms spinning.

OK, winds at all levels getting better, now what about moisture? Decent gulf moisture, an important ingedient in firing storms, has been a bit sparse lately but looking at the RH (relative humidity) progs it looks like decent deep moisture will start to push north during next week.

Obviously at this range you can't be too confident but the chances of some decent risks - 'proper' central plains chasing oportunities - increase into next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Location: Leicestershire

12z GFS ensembels (18 out of 24 members) show 2 or 3 HIGH RISK days over the plains next week. This solution i actually belive so much that I have rebooked my flight home in order to chase this pattern.

T3 are in great shape and i hope to hook up with them for ones days chasing during next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Looks like a very hot period across NM, TX and OK into s KS starting Monday once the weak fronts erode away. Some scattered storms likely in eastern NM on Monday, then Tuesday looks most promising in northeast CO and southeast WY, with a chance for tornadic storms on Wednesday in Nebraska or n /c KS. All of this period is likely to be baking hot in Texas, 105-110 F heat appears likely to develop. Another energy wave develops in Colorado on Friday and reloads this pattern. Could get quite active in NE and SD by next weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Nice deep 500mb trough arriving from the west by Saturday looking at ECM and GFS H500 comparisons, so potential for a high-end risk of severe weather plus greater chance for tornadoes over the Memorial Weekend across the Plains:

post-1052-0-65363300-1337594486_thumb.gi - ECM and GFS H500 for 00z Sun 27th May:

post-1052-0-04592400-1337594448_thumb.gi ECM H500/winds

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Nice to see the upper level dynamics looking good this week into the weekend. The skill in chasing will be finding holes in the cap. Maybe the trick is to get as far north on the set ups as possible and play the warm fronts where the upper level air will be a bit cooler. Anyway, I like the look of the weekends set up at this early stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

500mb and CAPE charts looking really good for Friday and Saturday for severe storms across the central/high Plains - as a trough arrives from the west. Unfortunately there does look to be a rather strong cap in place looking at CINH charts aswell - which could be a big hinderance both days.

post-1052-0-30286000-1337757795_thumb.gipost-1052-0-44768300-1337757811_thumb.gi

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