Chase Day 3 Discussion - New Mexico

[Paul Sherman]

Just a small risk today for some marginal hail and possible nice Storms in the Upslope Regime over New Mexico, if you are wondering how the hell we managed to chase Storms near Houston yesterday and to be near New Mexico for today well a 300 miles drive last night was done to get the hard part over with. I-10 Is also one of the fastest routes in the USA With 90mph legal in parts. We have chosen West and not east today because tomorrow looks a lot better in much the same area and better albeit NW Flow aloft is better tomorrow.

1,200 Miles already covered in 2 days of chasing - Phew!

Paul S

[Tom Lynch]

Just a small risk today for some marginal hail and possible nice Storms in the Upslope Regime over New Mexico, if you are wondering how the hell we managed to chase Storms near Houston yesterday and to be near New Mexico for today well a 300 miles drive last night was done to get the hard part over with. I-10 Is also one of the fastest routes in the USA With 90mph legal in parts. We have chosen West and not east today because tomorrow looks a lot better in much the same area and better albeit NW Flow aloft is better tomorrow.

1,200 Miles already covered in 2 days of chasing - Phew!

Paul S

Yes Paul tomorrow certainly looks promising too.

Tom

[Roger J Smith]

Situation looks good for convection near Ruidoso west of Roswell NM, possibly around Hondo NM at junction of US 70-380. Mountains rising to over 3,500 m (Sierra Blanca) often provide that extra bit of lift around there.

[the storm fisherman]

Situation looks good for convection near Ruidoso west of Roswell NM, possibly around Hondo NM at junction of US 70-380. Mountains rising to over 3,500 m (Sierra Blanca) often provide that extra bit of lift around there.

had my first chase around roswell the thing that sticks in my mind was the large hail and the cars with smashed windscreeens coming out of the storm.

the storm also had some incredible structure to it.

[Roger J Smith]

They might not be that severe today, but I would expect at the very least some photogenic storm clouds over nearby ridges. Was looking at google earth, the secondary NM road leading north from US 70 near Hondo (towards Arabela NM) looks to be paved if the storms start drifting that way. Upper level steering winds are light so these storms may tend to drift and reform in similar locations.

[Paul]

The stream is live now, the team went through an extended bad signal zone earlier

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[jimbo36]

The stream is live now, the team went through an extended bad signal zone earlier

http://www.netweathe...chaselive;sess=

Always been difficult to get a signal in the pub

[Roger J Smith]

Perhaps they will end up in Truth or Consequences, surely a good place for anyone doing any kind of weather forecasting.

[dallas]

Any idea what town they are in?

[Roger J Smith]

They appear to be near Fort Stockton in west Texas. Storms on radar about 150 miles to their northwest drifting e.s.e. at about 30 knots. These look to me like continuing a slow drift but won't cross NM-TX border before dying out after sunset.

[dallas]

Cheers Roger

[Paul Sherman]

Staying in Carlsbad tonight. Tomorrow looks really good for this area so not far to travel for initiation with the mountains Roger mentions visible to our West.

Tomorrow should see some huge hail and great supercell structures, the guys are lookin forward to it

[duckeyh]

Staying in Carlsbad tonight. Tomorrow looks really good for this area so not far to travel for initiation with the mountains Roger mentions visible to our West.

Tomorrow should see some huge hail and great supercell structures, the guys are lookin forward to it

Mwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ....

[Tom Lynch]

For when they wake up Day 4

.THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO FAR WEST

TX...

...SRN ROCKIES/FAR WEST TX...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER

THE INTERIOR WEST DIGGING SEWD TOWARD UT/CO. THIS FEATURE IS

EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 21Z ENSURING LARGE

SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DIURNAL

MAXIMUM FOR HEATING. GIVEN THAT CONVECTION HAS READILY DEVELOPED

ACROSS CO/NM THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST

THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN

INITIATE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. LATEST

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL

EXTEND ACROSS ERN AZ/SWRN NM INTO FAR WEST TX AS CONVECTION EVOLVES.

RESULTANT TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED

ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE

AS UPDRAFTS INGEST MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE

HAIL SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT SEVERE THREAT THOUGH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP

LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE RISK AREA...FORECAST

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LFC LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 3KM AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT

THE TORNADO THREAT. LATE IN THE PERIOD SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM

CLUSTERS COULD LOOSELY ORGANIZE AS THEY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SRN NM

INTO FAR WEST TX AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES INTO THE

BIG BEND REGION.

[Nick F]

Looking good then later to play in some large hail! Looks like bases of storms will be high, so low tornado risk, but hopefully be some picturesque LP structures for the team to photograph.

[Tom Lynch]

This might help a little. I know we are straying to day 4

[Dorsetbred]

Today is still looking good for the upslope development in Eastern NM, so fingers crossed for you

[D-J-V]

Trying to upload some pics, not sure whats up with this part of the world.....

[D-J-V]

Travel day today to re-position for the NM North West flow up-slope play, we left Kerrville and drove W on the i10 stopping for a leisurely lunch in Sonora, we then headed to Fort Stockton to gas up then jumped on the 285 NW to New Mexico, I have got to say the scenery around this part of Texas is obscene!. After grabbing some shots with the NM sign we settled on Carlsbad as our location for the evening. We found a great independent restaurant for this evenings meal. For those who watched the live stream, the coverage is appalling around here, and this could be a similar story for tomorrow as well...sorry!

On a more funny note, for some explicable reason Paul used my shave gel as shower gel this morning, I think he is losing it

Tomorrow is looking like a good day, supercells with great structure and very large hail. Tornado threat is minimal as the bases are going to be elevated and a limited amounts of rotation predicted, initiation is expected to form between Carlsbad and Fort Stockton. We are not too far away from Roswell which would have been a good stop off and we could potentially start out chase up there tomorrow, but for now here is a time lapse of today's trip!

I know I needed to turn manual focus on and we do not have a dash mount for the camera!