Chase Day 4 Discussion - New Mexico

[Paul Sherman]

We used Day 3 as a travel day from the Texas Hill Country to position for the next 2 days worth of risks in New Mexico and far west Texas in the Permian Basin and Big Bend regions.

Today sees some weak uplsope flow in the Interior Mountains of New Mexico and convection is already being seen to the west from our Hotel in Carlsbad. Trick today is to wait for one or two of these Storms to become Surface based this afternoon and turn into Supercells as they leave the Mountains and eat into that 1,500jkg of Cape on Offer. Structure should be decent today with High Based Supercells capable of Large Hail, expecting these to congeal into one or two areas on MCS's overnight which should give some Lightning opps over the desert regions of West Texas. Tornado chances look minimal but will be on the lookout for Landspout type tornadoes today in the stronger cells.

Regards

Paul S

[D-J-V]

First CG of the day North of Carlsbad before Mid Day local, not too bad!

[Paul]

Stream is live

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[nsrobins]

Hi chaps - first post on the chase discussions this season, but been keeping an eye on developments.

Just had a look at the surface obs on COD and there's a surprising amount of moisture in eastern NM - around 55F dps where you are now. Surface winds look weak but I always think a boundary will help add a bit of forcing in upslope set-ups and there appears to be a weak boundary in the Fort Sumner/Clovis line along US84 that may be worth a closer look.

As for the radar returns - looks high based. Is anything actually falling from it?

[dallas]

Roswell, isin't that Aliens and all that

[D-J-V]

Quick Update - Just west of Artesia, watching a storm pulse up and down, it should come of the mountains soon and the chase will be

on

Keep an eye on the stream!

[Nick F]

Can see a nice CB that the team are heading towards on the live stream.

Recent MD for NM:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0240 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-SRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131940Z - 132145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO

INCREASE...INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN-CNTRL NM...AND

MOVE NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS

EVENING AND RESULT IN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING

CU/TCU FIELD BLOSSOMING INTO SCTD TSTMS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HRS.

THIS IS LARGELY DUE 1) AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT

TO THE APPROACHING 4 CORNERS S/W TROUGH...2) STRONG DIABATIC HEATING

REMOVING CINH. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SELY

TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A MORE MOIST/LESS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS THAT IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PLAINS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH PW

GRADIENT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT. AS TEMPS WARM TO

NEAR 80 DEG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE

PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...IN TURN BEING VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE

MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD

STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. APPRECIABLE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER

AND A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL --

PROMPTING AT LEAST SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE WW.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/13/2012

[dallas]

Feed seems to have dissapeared altogether

[davehsug]

Yep, stream gone completely. Was okay 'til audio came on.

[dallas]

Its all looking a bit X-Files

[dallas]

Looks like a good spot, sure I saw some flashes

[dallas]

Wow, great looking shelf

[Roger J Smith]

The cell continued on a rampage southeast, reports of strong wind gusts in Artesia around 01z, flooding in Carlsbad around 02z and just now strong winds in Fort Stockton Texas (to 77 mph) a few minutes before 06z. Looking forward to the team's reports.

[Dorsetbred]

SO.... back into Texas for the slight chance today??

And then on to NE Texas & Oklahoma, towards Kansas for later in the week?

Edited May 14, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul]

Report and photos from today's chase here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73249-report-pictures-chase-day-4-se-new-mexico/

[Paul Sherman]

Looking very good for some Tornadoes and Supercells again in this Death Ridge Tour! Pmsl

[Dorsetbred]

Looking very good for some Tornadoes and Supercells again in this Death Ridge Tour! Pmsl

Let's hope your good fortune doesn't dry up early then