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Chase Day 4 Discussion - New Mexico

Paul Sherman

By Paul Sherman
in Storm Chase USA

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    Posted

    We used Day 3 as a travel day from the Texas Hill Country to position for the next 2 days worth of risks in New Mexico and far west Texas in the Permian Basin and Big Bend regions.

    Today sees some weak uplsope flow in the Interior Mountains of New Mexico and convection is already being seen to the west from our Hotel in Carlsbad. Trick today is to wait for one or two of these Storms to become Surface based this afternoon and turn into Supercells as they leave the Mountains and eat into that 1,500jkg of Cape on Offer. Structure should be decent today with High Based Supercells capable of Large Hail, expecting these to congeal into one or two areas on MCS's overnight which should give some Lightning opps over the desert regions of West Texas. Tornado chances look minimal but will be on the lookout for Landspout type tornadoes today in the stronger cells.

    Regards

    Paul S

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    D-J-V Rookie

    D-J-V

    Posted
  • Location: South West London
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy
    • Location: South West London
    Posted

    First CG of the day North of Carlsbad before Mid Day local, not too bad! rofl.gif

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    nsrobins Enthusiast

    nsrobins

    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
    • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
    Posted

    Hi chaps - first post on the chase discussions this season, but been keeping an eye on developments.

    Just had a look at the surface obs on COD and there's a surprising amount of moisture in eastern NM - around 55F dps where you are now. Surface winds look weak but I always think a boundary will help add a bit of forcing in upslope set-ups and there appears to be a weak boundary in the Fort Sumner/Clovis line along US84 that may be worth a closer look.

    As for the radar returns - looks high based. Is anything actually falling from it?

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    dallas Enthusiast

    dallas

    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    Posted

    Roswell, isin't that Aliens and all thatrofl.gif

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    D-J-V Rookie

    D-J-V

    Posted
  • Location: South West London
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy
    • Location: South West London
    Posted

    Quick Update - Just west of Artesia, watching a storm pulse up and down, it should come of the mountains soon and the chase will be

    on

    post-9920-0-00924200-1336938123_thumb.pn

    Keep an eye on the stream!

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    Nick F Maestro

    Nick F

    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    Posted

    Can see a nice CB that the team are heading towards on the live stream.

    Recent MD for NM:

    mcd0801.gif

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0240 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

    AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-SRN NM

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 131940Z - 132145Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

    SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO

    INCREASE...INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN-CNTRL NM...AND

    MOVE NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS

    EVENING AND RESULT IN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.

    DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING

    CU/TCU FIELD BLOSSOMING INTO SCTD TSTMS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HRS.

    THIS IS LARGELY DUE 1) AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT

    TO THE APPROACHING 4 CORNERS S/W TROUGH...2) STRONG DIABATIC HEATING

    REMOVING CINH. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SELY

    TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A MORE MOIST/LESS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE

    AIRMASS THAT IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PLAINS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH PW

    GRADIENT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT. AS TEMPS WARM TO

    NEAR 80 DEG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE

    PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...IN TURN BEING VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE

    MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD

    STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. APPRECIABLE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER

    AND A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL --

    PROMPTING AT LEAST SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE WW.

    ..SMITH/HART.. 05/13/2012

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    dallas Enthusiast

    dallas

    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    Posted

    Feed seems to have dissapeared altogether

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    dallas Enthusiast

    dallas

    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    Posted

    Its all looking a bit X-Filessorry.gif

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    dallas Enthusiast

    dallas

    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    Posted

    Looks like a good spot, sure I saw some flashes

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    dallas Enthusiast

    dallas

    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
    Posted

    Wow, great looking shelf

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    Roger J Smith Veteran

    Roger J Smith

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted

    The cell continued on a rampage southeast, reports of strong wind gusts in Artesia around 01z, flooding in Carlsbad around 02z and just now strong winds in Fort Stockton Texas (to 77 mph) a few minutes before 06z. Looking forward to the team's reports.

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    Dorsetbred Maestro

    Dorsetbred

    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    Posted

    SO.... back into Texas for the slight chance today??

    And then on to NE Texas & Oklahoma, towards Kansas for later in the week?

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    Paul Sherman Veteran

    Paul Sherman

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Author
    Posted

    Looking very good for some Tornadoes and Supercells again in this Death Ridge Tour! Pmsl

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    Dorsetbred Maestro

    Dorsetbred

    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    Posted

    Looking very good for some Tornadoes and Supercells again in this Death Ridge Tour! Pmsl

    Let's hope your good fortune doesn't dry up early thensorry.gif

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