Queens Jubilee Bank Holiday Weather Prospects.

[Roadrunner]

I think if you are able to get one issued this morning that forecast is perhaps looking a bit over pessimistic in terms of how much and how far north the rain may get.

I personally think it is going to be Friday after the 12z run before we can be rather more certain of where the front and its rain may be for Sunday?

John where in your expert opinion do you believe the northern extent of the band of rain will sit? Do these systems generally correct south or am i being a bit too optimistic?

[shedhead]

06 GFS brings the rain into the SW a little earlier on Saturday, in fact it's now looking something of a write off for those heading in this direction for the long weekend, with Sunday drier but still cool, damp and miserable. It also pushes the rain farther northeast, allowing much of England and Wales to get a soaking by end of Sunday, with Scotland offering the best of what's shaping up to be a bad bunch. BH Monday still no great shakes, something of a window in the west but not so good further east, then probably the reverse for BH Tuesday as the next system bowls in... ho hum!

Edited May 31, 2012 by shedhead

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

06 GFS brings the rain into the SW a little earlier on Saturday, in fact it's now looking something of a write off for those heading in this direction for the long weekend, with Sunday drier but still cool, damp and miserable. It also pushes the rain farther northeast, allowing much of England and Wales to get a soaking by end of Sunday, with Scotland offering the best of what's shaping up to be a bad bunch. BH Monday still no great shakes, something of a window in the west but not so good further east, then probably the reverse for BH Tuesday as the next system bowls in... ho hum!

LOL i'm going camping, will see if me tent leaks then :-)

[shedhead]

Rather you than me, good luck!

[johnholmes]

John where in your expert opinion do you believe the northern extent of the band of rain will sit? Do these systems generally correct south or am i being a bit too optimistic?

hi

see my pdf below-its the best I can do at the moment-we all have to wait another 24 hours in my view to get a more accurate idea.

Sunday rain where etc thur 31 may.pdf

[Roadrunner]

John Thanks for that. Most informative. Funnily enough i was comparing similar charts on the same website before i read your post. Using 12pm as a base time i stepped through rainfall predictions from the last 6 model runs on GFS. From my untrained eye, all have had consecutive bumps further north of the band of rain with the southern most extent of the band on 6z nearly reaching the south coast (using phone so can't post pics unfortunately). Will be interesting to see come the 12z if once again the heavier rain has once again been shunted north.

[johnholmes]

John Thanks for that. Most informative. Funnily enough i was comparing similar charts on the same website before i read your post. Using 12pm as a base time i stepped through rainfall predictions from the last 6 model runs on GFS. From my untrained eye, all have had consecutive bumps further north of the band of rain with the southern most extent of the band on 6z nearly reaching the south coast (using phone so can't post pics unfortunately). Will be interesting to see come the 12z if once again the heavier rain has once again been shunted north.

doing that will give you a solid idea of which way the GFS model is moving, or show it to be flipping from one idea to another. When the NAE comes into the frame do the same with that AND compare the two models. NAE SHOULD give the more reliable but its not always the case.

[Bottesford]

Thanks John for that. Keeping a very close eye on all this...

[Summer Sun]

Chances of rain in London on Sunday look quite high now with temperatures at just 11c by 14:30, Scotland and North East England look like remaining the best areas for drier weather

[Weather-history]

PubliusEnigma made a point about the possibilty of the cool temps on GFS for Sunday and was ridiculed as a troll, infact his post has been removed from the model thread. He's not looking so daft now.....

Edited May 31, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Coast]

Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend weather set to worsen as showers arrive in Wales

An umbrella will definitely be needed to go out and about this Diamond Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend, as Wales will see a return of wet weather. National forecaster at the Met Office, Ruth Steele said that showers are imminent across the whole of the country today, but there will be some dry spells.

She said: "North Wales is seeing patchy rain pushing in from the west and that's the story for most of Wales. In South Wales the rain is very patchy but should see some bright spells towards the end of the afternoon. "There will be some heavy bursts in the Snowdonia area. But the rain will ease off overnight with conditions becoming a bit drier through there will be spots of drizzle tomorrow."

For the Bank Holiday Ruth added: "Although Saturday will be mostly cloudy but dry, the majority of the country will see some rain on Sunday. And Monday will start off dry with a risk of rain at times." As well as rainy weather, temperatures are set be cooler than at the start of the week. She added: "Temperatures are going to be lower than they have been but it will still be quite humid so it's not going to feel too cold. "Today temperatures will go up to around 18C."

Over the weekend temperatures are expected to dip to an average of 11 to 13C for the whole of Wales.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/need-to-read/2012/05/31/jubilee-bank-holiday-weekend-weather-set-to-worsen-as-showers-arrive-in-wales-91466-31084200/#ixzz1wSUkcach

[m1chaels]

For our bit of the SE they are forecasting a daytime max of only 10 degrees on Sunday - is this not a bit unusual for June?

[shedhead]

PubliusEnigma made a point about the possibilty of the cool temps on GFS for Sunday and was ridiculed as a troll, infact his post has been removed from the model thread. He's not looking so daft now.....

Throw enough darts and one is bound to hit the bull eventually.

[Methuselah]

Can we please get away from mud-slinging?

[ANYWEATHER]

For our bit of the SE they are forecasting a daytime max of only 10 degrees on Sunday - is this not a bit unusual for June?

Not at all! I remember the flooding rain we had in the second half of July 2007 and temperature were around 10 to 12 all day! Anyway, if youre looking at the models seems the word "WashOut" for Sunday in picticular for some places in the Southern half of the Uk. Its a real shame that the weather is going to turn the way is progged, considering the work people have put into the Jubille celebration! But there you are, its the Weather and there is nothing we can do about it. Typical British bank holiday weather coming up!

[Methuselah]

http://www.lccc.co.uk/news/this-day-in-1975-snow-stopped-play/2894

[Bottesford]

Note to self: Never ever plan anything outdoors on a bank holiday weekend.

[Roadrunner]

Having viewed the precip charts for Sunday after the 12z i can now assume the games up as regards hoping for dry weather for the capital? Hoping someone will come up with a possible way the rain can avoid us if a certain thing happened.

[Paul]

Jubilee weekend forecast from Michael Fish:

[Roadrunner]

A small crumb of comfort if i may indulge. Rain was forecast for my area today from roughly mid afternoon until late evening. As of now, we are yet to see one single rain drop. I can also see chinks of blue sky to my north east. Temperature is still in my opinion suitable for shorts and tee shirt.

What i am trying to say is that although Sunday does look at present rather moist, it may, and i stress may, not be as bad as is forecast. Let the weather get you down and you WILL have a miserable time. We are British and as such we maintain a stiff upper lip and take the weather on the chin whatever it brings. I've had some of the best BBQ's when it's been raining believe it or not! I'll be on a golf course on Sunday in Herts, come rain or shine, in waterproofs or shirt sleeves. Sod the weather, your day is what YOU make it and shouldn't be about what falls from the sky.

Wishing everyone at netweather a HAPPY jubilee weekend whatever you are doing. Eat, drink and be merry whether you're camping, golfing, BBQing or partying and remember you haven't lived until you have danced naked in the rain (and for those with pictures of this i can confirm it was a cold day).

Edited May 31, 2012 by Roadrunner

[I remember Atlantic 252]

off topic and probably deleted but I absolutely hate the jubilee! I always call it Whit holiday week as normal,

but weather for Whit holiday looks okay, normal British weather, Atlantic type stuff, Last 9 days was not normal British weather, Whit monday looks like being around 17C and dry, fairly normal so no need for disappointment

[Aaron]

Hopefully the cool wet weather will put a dampener on people's celebrations

[damianslaw]

Still a fair bit uncertainty at this range. Saturday looks the best day of the 4 day long weekend, mostly dry away from the SW quarter of the country where a troublesome warm front may bring outbreaks of rain to SW Eng, Wales and possibly NW England and feeling pleasant with mid-high teen maxima and perhaps some brightness but a predominantly cloudy affair.

Sunday - oh dear a poor day is looking likely for much of england and wales, hard to say where the cold front will end up, but it looks a sluggish affair so where it does rain it will persist for quite some time and with low teen maxima it will feel dissapointingly cool for the time of year - a far cry from last Sunday.

Monday - cloudy for most with rain lingering in central, eastern and south east england with temps struggling to edge out of the low teens, drier further north, but cool here as well and cloudy, rain could hit western parts later in the day with showery outbreaks ahead of the next front.

Tuesday - frontal rain for the west, possibly drier and brighter in the east and milder here, but mostly dull cloudy cool weather.

It has to be said it is a very poor outlook, many will be saying oh why couldn't it be last weekend. We saw similiar events unfold in early april after a glorious 10 day spell just when the schools broke up the weather turned and we ended up with a distincly poor easter weekend compared to the 2 last weekends in March.

[Mattster1]

trying to be positive, most of the rain for the south west is now forcast for saturday night with sunday v light showers then dry until tuesday so there is some hope

[Bottesford]

I see no hope at all. 12 noon - just when I was starting my bbq and look at that horrible vile chart.

Not actually sure how it could time any worse. Any of the days this or last week right up to tomorrow would have been either great or at least decent for a bbq. Sunday with a prediction of 9c and heavy rain really couldn't be any worse. Time to cancel then I guess and cook everything inside