The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 9

[BlueHedgehog074]

If only it had been the 18Z run (the 'pub run'), then we could have come up with an excuse that the GFS had too many drinks from the restaurant. Or maybe it still has anyway.

If you're after cooler weather, though, it good news, although there could still be some changes before it's too late. ;-)

It is yet another day with the sunhine shield all broken apart with a gentle to moderate wind around helping to take away the feel of the heat a bit. Currently 24*C.

[Costa Del Fal]

Feels hot today without the breeze. Around 26c currently and another 2 or so hours of warming left.

[conor123]

Hottest day of the warm spell today with a high of 25.6c! more cloud bubbled up since 3pm but not to much, felt very hot with lighter winds!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

warmest day of year so far 25.5C, hope its cooler soon

[Hathers]

I really hope this hot spell goes out with a bang this week. Wednesday looks best at the moment.

[Costa Del Fal]

NAE 18z has initiation nicely over the West Midlands into the SE tomorrow.

[conor123]

That wall of overcast grim weather is slowly approaching from the South West but warm and sunny at the moment with practically no wind!

[Ian Ballinger]

It's going to be so depressing when the grey sky's return

[A.J]

Don't listen to the doomsayers folks....It's a gorgeous day out there, very warm & sunny, and with a chance of a thunderstorm later to boot....What could be better!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That wall of overcast grim weather is slowly approaching from the South West but warm and sunny at the moment with practically no wind!

send it this way, had enough of this hot sunny weather now, gone on for a week, does look cooler and finally cloudier for wednesday

realise now perhaps I dont hate rain, this is the worst weather,

Edited May 28, 2012 by Snow? norfolk n chance

[A.J]

A re-post from the convective thread as it's relevant to our region...

hot, sunny & humid sums up the weather here in the West Midlands....There is some patchy Altocumulus overhead indicating some mid-level instability as a weakening CF encroaches from the SW...Also to my east, some convective cloud is bubbling up, but with a cap/inversion in place around the 850hpa mark, development is being inhibited currently....I think there is a lower risk of showers/thunderstorms for the west midlands today, but even so, I shall be sky/radar watching with interest

...and a quick edit...as the decaying CF seems to be passing through currently, I fear the real action (if any) may well be to the east of region for today, as it's the air mass along and just in front of the encroaching Cold Front which is expected to destabilise......Still, a question of watching and waiting, me thinks

[Ian Ballinger]

So there is a chance of a storm then?

[TonyH]

That wall of overcast grim weather is slowly approaching from the South West but warm and sunny at the moment with practically no wind!

Meanwhile in the real world to your south-west anything but 'grim weather' unbroken sunshine and 23c!

[syed2878]

Shame the hot and sunny weather is coming to an end lets hope it's back before too long and the cold can stay away til the winter.

[shaky]

Meanwhile in the real world to your south-west anything but 'grim weather' unbroken sunshine and 23c!

A quick question!!has there ever been a convergence zone at night time?.because all the convergence zones that i have witnessed have happened at day time.

Edited May 28, 2012 by TonyH

[Ian Ballinger]

Meanwhile in the real world to your south-west anything but 'grim weather' unbroken sunshine and 23c!

Think Conor has a fetish about overcast sky's

[conor123]

Meanwhile in the real world to your south-west anything but 'grim weather' unbroken sunshine and 23c!

There was a wall of cloud to the south west this morning which gave overcast weather for some but it fizzled out by the time it reached here luckily!!

Rather cloudy now however but convective cumulus which has developed really fast in the past half hour, warm and humid at 22.7c!

[Hathers]

I've got a feeling we could be in for a nice surprise later

[Snowy Easterly]

well today was supposed to be the last nice sunny day, but it has now clouded over, still warm at 23c though

look at the greenland high on the ECM if only it were winter, same old story though

i can't believe some are already bored of this weather, we have only had this for a week, we had to put up with 7 weeks of cool rubbish prior to this spell

Edited May 28, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Cheshire Freeze]

LOL the CF seems to have pushed too far east now for much of the WM with clearer slot pushing in behind. Couldn't make it up! all it had to do was come in a couple of hours slower. The east will get the storms again today I'm afraid.

[A.J]

LOL the CF seems to have pushed too far east now for much of the WM with clearer slot pushing in behind. Couldn't make it up! all it had to do was come in a couple of hours slower. The east will get the storms again today I'm afraid.

As it stands it looks that way on paper, but my eyes have been turned west & south westwards to a rather large developing cumulus field over mid & south Wales...It's not beyond the realms of impossibility that something might develop there......closer to home, convective skies to my east, but it's staying to my east unfortunately

[Cheshire Freeze]

As it stands it looks that way on paper, but my eyes have been turned west & south westwards to a rather large developing cumulus field over mid & south Wales...It's not beyond the realms of impossibility that something might develop there......closer to home, convective skies to my east, but it's staying to my east unfortunately

Unfortunately AJ that'll just be along the lines of what's occurred over the past few days....that is orographic lift creating the cumulus field. You might be OK for a storm Wed though. Someone (I think SNOW_JOKE) has said whoever doesn't see a storm over the next few days will be unlucky but I cannot see any evidence to suggest the stormless streak will be broken here on what must be the millionth attempt.

Also I still can't answer why it is troughs seem to be pushing through the west early on in the day only to spring into action across the east during peak heating times. It's all beoming a rather sickening joke now.

Edited May 28, 2012 by CreweCold

[A.J]

Unfortunately AJ that'll just be along the lines of what's occurred over the past few days....that is orographic lift creating the cumulus field. You might be OK for a storm Wed though. Someone (I think SNOW_JOKE) has said whoever doesn't see a storm over the next few days will be unlucky but I cannot see any evidence to suggest the stormless streak will be broken here on what must be the millionth attempt.

Sorry mate, but that's an odd couple of sentences.....There's been virtually no cloud across our region the past few days, and it's orographic lift that will provide the necessary forcing to produce enhanced convection not forgetting to factor in the hi-res modelled convergence expected over the west & north midlands going into the evening....So whilst currently all the action is over the SE of England, don't rule out something closer to home

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry mate, but that's an odd couple of sentences.....There's been virtually no cloud across our region the past few days, and it's orographic lift that will provide the necessary forcing to produce enhanced convection not forgetting to factor in the hi-res modelled convergence expected over the west & north midlands going into the evening....So whilst currently all the action is over the SE of England, don't rule out something closer to home

It's not odd, the clouds we saw bubble up earlier were due to the passing of the CF but the cumulus field you speak of over Wales is due to topography....hence the speckled look to the clouds on the sattelite (the speckles relating to peaks in the landscape around the higher ground) These will soon dissipate as they attempt to spread east as the orographic forcing is lost. We've seen this speckled cloud develop over upland areas on numerous days during this spell but it has remained cloud free here because of the low altitude.

[A.J]

It's not odd, the clouds we saw bubble up earlier were due to the passing of the CF but the cumulus field you speak of over Wales is due to topography....hence the speckled look to the clouds on the sattelite (the speckles relating to peaks in the landscape around the higher ground) These will soon dissipate as they attempt to spread east as the orographic forcing is lost. We've seen this speckled cloud develop over upland areas on numerous days during this spell but it has remained cloud free here because of the low altitude.

first off, I'm well aware of why cloud bubbled up earlier, I posted an accurate summary in this thread earlier today......secondly, I must admit, I've not seen a cumulus field like this develop over Wales the past few days on satellite....thirdly, we have a cumulus field here, post cold front, that is not dissipating, and last but not least, this is almost certainly due to LLC, which has been modelled on hi-res output...So, in summary, all is not lost....I'm not saying we're going to see widespread thunderstorms, but the potential for the odd discrete shower/storm is most definitely there