Model Watch For Tour 4

[Paul]

The tour 4 info packs have been sent out today, which means the countdown to the start of the tour can begin in earnest. The models are coming into range as well & currently show a chance of a chase not too far from DFW on the first chase day:

Beyond that (and bearing in mind all of this is way off at the moment & likely to change), it looks like the risk starts to move further north..

USA Charts

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=usacharts;sess=

[duckeyh]

EXCITED

[craig1uk]

Yay ! The fun and wishcasting starts here !!!!!! Models have been all over the place on this so far but its still a way out, good fun to look tho (if a bit sadistic sometimes )

Craig

[lewisosd]

Hell yea guys. One week and one day till flights! Canny wait!

[ItIsGee]

been waiting for this thread to go up!!!! once this is up you know its not long til we fly!!!!

excited aint the word!!!!

Geeee

[davelp]

Bring it on..

[Nick F]

8-10 day ECM and GFS H500 comparisons and ECM ensemble mean roughly agree on upper trough over Great Lakes and ridge into the US Pacific coast around beginging - so a strong NW flow over Nern mid-west states could favour some SLIGHT risks over central/northern Plains - but probably nothing more:

[Nick F]

Maybe some storms not far away for those (like me) arriving a day early on the 30th next week.

ON

WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH

ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUGGESTING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG

INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Looks like cold front will eventually scour moisture away SE into the Gullf the following few days though, as the upper trough moves away east.

[lewisosd]

Extra chase day? Let's rent a car for the evening!

[duckeyh]

Extra chase day? Let's rent a car for the evening!

or sit back with a beer & a slice of pizza while they roll over us !

[lewisosd]

Yea get some practice lightning shots in!

[ItIsGee]

I think beer and pizza sound ace!!! Lightning shots it is!

Looking forward to it now!!

[craig1uk]

GFS 12z has the moisture returning in spades within a day or so, hope that trend continues , now where is the " fingers crossed " smiley ?

Craig

[Nick F]

Wednesday still looks interesting for those landing on the 30th:

AT THIS
   POINT...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
   THREAT POTENTIAL WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
   EXACT LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A
   SEVERE THREAT AREA ATTM.

Cold front finally shifts SE scouring moisture away towards the Gulf Coast on Thursday - with some potential perhaps near the Gulf Coast before the front clears out on Friday, then it appears, for now, that the focus will turn towards the High Plains for storms at the weekend and early following week as heights begin to fall again from the west..

[jimbo36]

Fear not for those on tour 4. Met Brandon Ivey yesterday and his LRF has good chance of stormfest June 5th to 10th

[davelp]

Tour 4 starting in earnest for me now. link to my blog where I'll be putting my spin on the tour.

http://www.dp-outdoors.com/blog/

[duckeyh]

Fear not for those on tour 4. Met Brandon Ivey yesterday and his LRF has good chance of stormfest June 5th to 10th

Shame we start on the 31 May Still loving our chances of 9/10 chase days..assuming Paul S can cope after T3!

[lewisosd]

Would love to hear another forecast. I can't read the charts. Too thick!

[Nick F]

Moderate Risk over Oklahoma and Kansas tomorrow when some of us land, oh so close! DFW right on the edge of the Slight Risk area, so might get something tomorrow evening.

[Nick F]

Would love to hear another forecast. I can't read the charts. Too thick!

Thursday sees a severe storm risk to the east/SE of DFW in the ARLATEX region along cold front advancing SEwards- large hail and damaging winds the largest risks.

Then after that, post cold front airmass will likely to be too dry to support much over the Plains on Friday, but it looks like severe potential will pick up once again over the central and northern Plains over the weekend and into early next week.

[davelp]

Well not knowing which day to attach this to as we havn't started yet I thought I stick them here.

Tour 4 Day 0

[davelp]

Hi all

Lonks to my photo slideshows from tour 4

http://lpgphotographic.zenfolio.com/lightning2012/slideshow

http://lpgphotographic.zenfolio.com/chase2012landscape/slideshow

http://lpgphotographic.zenfolio.com/chase2012people/slideshow

So many of them I split them into three. Best watched full screen .

Cheers