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Model Watch For Tour 4

Paul

By Paul
in Storm Chase USA

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

The tour 4 info packs have been sent out today, which means the countdown to the start of the tour can begin in earnest. The models are coming into range as well & currently show a chance of a chase not too far from DFW on the first chase day:

post-2-0-56270000-1337692437_thumb.png

Beyond that (and bearing in mind all of this is way off at the moment & likely to change), it looks like the risk starts to move further north..

USA Charts

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=usacharts;sess=

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duckeyh Explorer

duckeyh

Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
Posted
yahoo.gifyahoo.gifyahoo.gif EXCITED yahoo.gifyahoo.gifyahoo.gif
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craig1uk Newbie

craig1uk

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
Posted

Yay ! The fun and wishcasting starts here !!!!!! Models have been all over the place on this so far but its still a way out, good fun to look tho (if a bit sadistic sometimes )

Craig

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ItIsGee Aficionado

ItIsGee

Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
Posted

been waiting for this thread to go up!!!! once this is up you know its not long til we fly!!!!

excited aint the word!!!!

Geeee

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

8-10 day ECM and GFS H500 comparisons and ECM ensemble mean roughly agree on upper trough over Great Lakes and ridge into the US Pacific coast around beginging - so a strong NW flow over Nern mid-west states could favour some SLIGHT risks over central/northern Plains - but probably nothing more:

post-1052-0-22538600-1337764097_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-39990500-1337764112_thumb.gi

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Maybe some storms not far away for those (like me) arriving a day early on the 30th next week.

ON

WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH

ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUGGESTING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG

INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

post-1052-0-27322100-1337937438_thumb.gipost-1052-0-58695500-1337937469_thumb.gi

Looks like cold front will eventually scour moisture away SE into the Gullf the following few days though, as the upper trough moves away east.

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duckeyh Explorer

duckeyh

Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
Posted

Extra chase day? Let's rent a car for the evening!

or sit back with a beer & a slice of pizza while they roll over us !

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ItIsGee Aficionado

ItIsGee

Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
Posted

I think beer and pizza sound ace!!! Lightning shots it is!

Looking forward to it now!!

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craig1uk Newbie

craig1uk

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
Posted

GFS 12z has the moisture returning in spades within a day or so, hope that trend continues , now where is the " fingers crossed " smiley ?

rofl.gif

Craig

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Wednesday still looks interesting for those landing on the 30th:


AT THIS
   POINT...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
   THREAT POTENTIAL WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
   EXACT LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A
   SEVERE THREAT AREA ATTM.

Cold front finally shifts SE scouring moisture away towards the Gulf Coast on Thursday - with some potential perhaps near the Gulf Coast before the front clears out on Friday, then it appears, for now, that the focus will turn towards the High Plains for storms at the weekend and early following week as heights begin to fall again from the west..

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jimbo36 Apprentice

jimbo36

Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
Posted

Fear not for those on tour 4. Met Brandon Ivey yesterday and his LRF has good chance of stormfest June 5th to 10th

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duckeyh Explorer

duckeyh

Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

Fear not for those on tour 4. Met Brandon Ivey yesterday and his LRF has good chance of stormfest June 5th to 10th

Shame we start on the 31 May blum.gif Still loving our chances of 9/10 chase days..assuming Paul S can cope after T3!

Edited by duckeyh
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Moderate Risk over Oklahoma and Kansas tomorrow when some of us land, oh so close! DFW right on the edge of the Slight Risk area, so might get something tomorrow evening.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Would love to hear another forecast. I can't read the charts. Too thick!

Thursday sees a severe storm risk to the east/SE of DFW in the ARLATEX region along cold front advancing SEwards- large hail and damaging winds the largest risks.

Then after that, post cold front airmass will likely to be too dry to support much over the Plains on Friday, but it looks like severe potential will pick up once again over the central and northern Plains over the weekend and into early next week.

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davelp Explorer

davelp

Posted
  • Location: Horsham West Sussx
  • Location: Horsham West Sussx
Posted

Well not knowing which day to attach this to as we havn't started yet I thought I stick them here.

Tour 4 Day 0

post-6098-0-89429900-1338522716_thumb.jp post-6098-0-43152700-1338522735_thumb.jp post-6098-0-25123100-1338522739_thumb.jp

post-6098-0-60005500-1338522742_thumb.jp post-6098-0-21115000-1338522746_thumb.jp post-6098-0-52962300-1338522748_thumb.jp

post-6098-0-14547000-1338522752_thumb.jp post-6098-0-70046900-1338522755_thumb.jp post-6098-0-18148500-1338522759_thumb.jp

rofl.gif

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  • 3 weeks later...
davelp Explorer

davelp

Posted
  • Location: Horsham West Sussx
  • Location: Horsham West Sussx
Posted

Hi all

Lonks to my photo slideshows from tour 4

http://lpgphotographic.zenfolio.com/lightning2012/slideshow

http://lpgphotographic.zenfolio.com/chase2012landscape/slideshow

http://lpgphotographic.zenfolio.com/chase2012people/slideshow

So many of them I split them into three. Best watched full screen .

Cheers

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