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Tropical Storm Beryl


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Posted
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Altitude: 189 m, Density Altitude: 6 m
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical Cyclone, Blizzard, Thunderstorm, Freezing Cold Day and Heat Wave.
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Altitude: 189 m, Density Altitude: 6 m

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING

A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. && HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN NNNN <a

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Edited by Konstantinos
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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Hmmm interesting, would go against a below average season that was forecasted if something tries to kick off early.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

It's already kicked off lol. This one would be the second named storm if it develops and the season hasn't even started yet. If Beryl does form, it will be the first time since 1887 that two named storms occured in May.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Beryl has now formed but only so far a sub tropical, Nhc are saying the transition to tropical might happen a she moves over the gs.

Looking on floaters she is definitely sub tropical ATM and I probably wouldn't be too optimistic of her becoming tropical before landfall

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

What an amazing start to the season! are we actually going to witness a Cat 1 here?,

already had a couple of >80mph FLwinds,,,,

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Beryl has moved southwestwards towards the east coast of Florida and has transitioned into a fully tropical storm. Intensity has risen to 55kts. The warm waters of the Gulf Stream have aided the tropical transition. Ridging to the north will be replaced by troughing over the coming days, but not in time to prevent a landfall. The resultant reversal of Beryl's motion will occur after landfall. Beryl is forecast to head back eastwards and re-emerge over the Atlantic as a tropical depression, but may briefly re-attain storm status before becoming extratropical as it races northeastwards by day 4/5.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

Beryl now up to 70mph according to the NHC, the sat images appear to show a ragged eye-like feature developing. Beryl is very near to landfall now though so it's touch and go whether she will attain hurricane strength.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Beryl now up to 70mph according to the NHC, the sat images appear to show a ragged eye-like feature developing. Beryl is very near to landfall now though so it's touch and go whether she will attain hurricane strength.

Someone on Facebook, said they have reported 76knot winds...sustained. Yet it's staying as a Tropical Storm. Very touch and god, we are already 2 storms into our quota.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Beryl peaked at just below hurricane strength, 60kts, before making landfall on the east coast of Florida overnight. Convection has reduced though some very heavy rains continue to affect Florida. Intensity has fallen to 45kts as land interaction takes it's toll on Beryl. Beryl is still moving westwards but should swing back east-northeastwards soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Someone on Facebook, said they have reported 76knot winds...sustained. Yet it's staying as a Tropical Storm. Very touch and god, we are already 2 storms into our quota.

That's at flight level. At the surface, that equates to about 60kts. If we saw flight level winds of around 80kts then we would have had a hurricane. It was certainly close. It would have been the first time the name Beryl would have become a hurricane, all other 5 times the name has been used it has remained a tropical storm. It appears the storm just fell short. Another 6 hours over water and it would have been a different story.

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

So a "close but no cigar" But I hazard a guess that "Chris" won't be long ss?

Time will tell "if" the early August update will increase the forecast from current "near normal" to more % chances of 'canes in the basins?

Edited by mezzacyclone
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Some models are hinting at Chris later this weekend southeast of the US near the Bahamas, though there isn't strong agreement. If we do see Chris by next week, it will be very unusual to be on the third named storm by the season's start!

Beryl is a tropical depression which has finally turned back towards the east. Heavy showers are still being produced by the circulation of Beryl, which remains well defined, especially for a system that has been over land for so long. This puts Beryl in good stead to become a tropical storm again as it moves away from Florida, back over water in 12-24hrs time. Thereafter, Beryl will move swiftly to the northeast and become extratropical.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Beryl is finally back over water but is becoming extratropical as it interacts with a cold front. Convection is displaced well north of the increasingly elongated LLC. Beryl should fully transition to an extratropical storm (within the next 12hrs) and move out into the open waters of the North Atlantic.

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