UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012

[Supacell]

Is tomorrow still looking decent for most of England?

From what I can see - yes. Several hundred J/kg of CAPE, a LI of -4 in some areas and several areas of convergence along with low pressure overhead and (according to the met office pressure chart) an occluded front moving in from the west. An interesting day tomorrow and i'm at work

EDIT: This is despite Darren Bett's forecast

Edited May 29, 2012 by Supacell

[Discombobulation Man]

From what I can see - yes. Several hundred J/kg of CAPE, a LI of -4 in some areas and several areas of convergence along with low pressure overhead and (according to the met office pressure chart) an occluded front moving in from the west. An interesting day tomorrow and i'm at work

EDIT: This is despite Darren Bett's forecast

Lol, yeah I prefer your forecast to Darren 'no storm' Bett ( aka Darren 'Mild' Bett)

[Robbie Garrett]

Nothing now.. its all breaking up and melting away here.. oh well

May help things get going once and for all, sun's breaking through now...

Area interest for the rest of this evening is that lot bunched up over Southern England (north of Brighton) and slightly south of London.

[liambailey09]

To be honest I'm not sure at all now that i've just seen Darren Bett and his miserable forecast, looks like a bust now with even tomorrow not showing nearly as much activity as was forecasted previously.

From what I can see - yes. Several hundred J/kg of CAPE, a LI of -4 in some areas and several areas of convergence along with low pressure overhead and (according to the met office pressure chart) an occluded front moving in from the west. An interesting day tomorrow and i'm at work

EDIT: This is despite Darren Bett's forecast

Thanks for your quick replies! Looks like we'll just have to wait and see then, luckily I finish my last exam tomorrow morning so I have the entire day to sky gaze

[Supacell]

Lol, yeah I prefer your forecast to Darren 'no storm' Bett ( aka Darren 'Mild' Bett)

We need Tomasz "strop" Shafernaker back - he'd be forecasting tornadoes, golf ball hail and supercells for tomorrow.

[Robbie Garrett]

metoffice Met Office

The storms will be very isolated if at all, we are not expecting them to be much at all.

[MPfreeUK]

Just had lots of smaller dark clouds merge into a bigger one over crawley and chuck down some rain, now moved to the east of us.

[syncmaster]

We need Tomasz "strop" Shafernaker back - he'd be forecasting tornadoes, golf ball hail and supercells for tomorrow.

Well we ae arnt we !!!!!!! lol..

[A.J]

Cloud just seems to be building, there are multiple cells likely to form from what I can see - maybe it may merge into a MCS?? Doubt it very much but that would keep them going longer. But I guess if there is convergence there is likely to be some shear??

Looks to be showering to my west.

You're obsessed with MCS's...lol...(not that I blame you...an MCS is an awesome spectacle if your underneath one!)

but no chance IMO of an MCS forming...there simply aren't any decent parameters in place for that type of weather event...Today/evening is about isolated single cell storms (if any)

[Mapantz]

I hope i get something here at some point this year. 2005 was the last time i had an actual thunderstorm.

[tara303]

so i rushed home, certain that something is brewing, only to find a blank radar......;-( whats it looking like for tomorrow, heathrow way??

[MP-R]

Just cloudy haha, how interesting.

[Lauren]

Love the picture in the opening post Coast!

It seems we have about a 60% storm risk over the weekend here.

The weather looks poor for the BBQ on Monday, not a happy bunny.

[Neilsouth]

Nice forecasting today guys, serious lack of anything and low cloud all day

[chionomaniac]

Surrounded by dark clouds here at home but nothing happening. I suspect nothing will now either, so off to water the lettuces.

[bobbydog]

thunder!...... lightning!......

the way you love me it's frightening!....

[Robbie Garrett]

You're obsessed with MCS's...lol...(not that I blame you...an MCS is an awesome spectacle if your underneath one!)

but no chance IMO of an MCS forming...there simply aren't any decent parameters in place for that type of weather event...Today/evening is about isolated single cell storms (if any)

GRRRR LOL!!

Yeah had to many in my lifetime, to not want to experience more... sorry!!

What are the characteristics of those sort of storms?? and what generally helps them form??

[Mesoscale]

looking around there is not much in the way of stormy looking clouds here, there isn't even a wiff of a shower on radar neither.

[Andy Bown]

So we've had 2 days with many excitable posts about things building and the potential for thundery activity, followed by ultimate disappointment by many posters who have had nothing. What has actually happened was a line of heavy storms to the East of London into the East Midlands yesterday that lasted a few hours and today no more than a few brief sharp showers!

For me the day of excitement this week was going to be tomorrow, yet the Countryfile forecast on Sunday for a widespread thundery day has now turned into no more than a scattereing of heavy showers developing as an upper trough moves from W-E.

I hate to say it for fear of infuriating Western based NW members, but tomorrow looks better for Eastern regions again as the upper trough looks set to reach there at peak heating time - the local BBC forecast showed it crossing the Bristol/Bath/Wiltshire area around 11.00-13.00 which would translate into around 15.00-16.00 for the London-East Midlands parts!

[Carl46Wrexham]

So we've had 2 days with many excitable posts about things building and the potential for thundery activity, followed by ultimate disappointment by many posters who have had nothing. What has actually happened was a line of heavy storms to the East of London into the East Midlands yesterday that lasted a few hours and today no more than a few brief sharp showers!

For me the day of excitement this week was going to be tomorrow, yet the Countryfile forecast on Sunday for a widespread thundery day has now turned into no more than a scattereing of heavy showers developing as an upper trough moves from W-E.

I hate to say it for fear of infuriating Western based NW members, but tomorrow looks better for Eastern regions again as the upper trough looks set to reach there at peak heating time - the local BBC forecast showed it crossing the Bristol/Bath/Wiltshire area around 11.00-13.00 which would translate into around 15.00-16.00 for the London-East Midlands parts!

It's not infuriating...it's just all too predictable now. Who was it that said the British weather is unpredictable? When it comes to stormy weather, it has become all too predictable.

[Cheshire Freeze]

So we've had 2 days with many excitable posts about things building and the potential for thundery activity, followed by ultimate disappointment by many posters who have had nothing. What has actually happened was a line of heavy storms to the East of London into the East Midlands yesterday that lasted a few hours and today no more than a few brief sharp showers!

For me the day of excitement this week was going to be tomorrow, yet the Countryfile forecast on Sunday for a widespread thundery day has now turned into no more than a scattereing of heavy showers developing as an upper trough moves from W-E.

I hate to say it for fear of infuriating Western based NW members, but tomorrow looks better for Eastern regions again as the upper trough looks set to reach there at peak heating time - the local BBC forecast showed it crossing the Bristol/Bath/Wiltshire area around 11.00-13.00 which would translate into around 15.00-16.00 for the London-East Midlands parts!

Doesn't surprise me....it happens every time despite being told it's all perfectly normal. If it was normal, our long term average for storm days would be 0.

[A.J]

GRRRR LOL!!

Yeah had to many in my lifetime, to not want to experience more... sorry!!

What are the characteristics of those sort of storms?? and what generally helps them form??

Have a look at our very own Nick Finnis's guide to UK storm set-ups....quite a bit about Mesoscale convective systems, and other types of t-storms....

http://forum.netweat...erstorm-setups/

for the sort of MCS which affects the UK, we normally to south western France & north Spain for initiation during the afternoon hours, a good supply of low level moisture, mid-level instability & plenty of shear are key ingredients amongst others, then as the storm complex pushes into northern France during the evening/night, nocturnal cooling provides steep temp gradient to help the rising air destabilise to fuel the complex during the overnight period....I haven't observed in person an MCS in the UK for over a decade...(1999)...the one I'll always remember was an MCS that affected the SW of England back in 1983...It was my 13th birthday and celebrated by being under the influence of an MCS that arrived at 5am and lasted through until lunchtime (we witnessed at least 6 different storm cells during those hours!!)

[A.J]

I've noticed that several members have been wondering why there have been a distinct lack of storms over the western half of the uk in recent summers, and also members from the south-east sector of the UK asking why they rarely see the amount of storms in recent summers, in particular overnight MCS's that have been observed in previous summers.....

Well, I might be talking complete garbage, so bear with me, but isn't it something to do with the North Atlantic Oscillation.....In recent summers, we've been under the influence of a +NAO which, as it promotes an increased westerly air flow, skews the axis of thundery troughs over Biscay/France in a SW to NE direction, meaning that these thundery troughs/thermal lows/what ever else you want to call them, are forced NEwards over the low countries, leaving the South East of England high & dry, so to speak....

...Wheras summers that produce lots of thundery activity for all parts of the UK are due to the UK being under the influence of a -NAO, which is notable for it's supressing of the normal W/SW prevailing air pattern, allowing thundery lows which form over Biscay & southern France to move with more of a north or even north westerly component, thus affecting the UK?..

This is just my guess on what has happened over the past few summers, so any feedback from the more learned members would be appreciated, even if it's just to point me in the right direction

[Stormraider]

Just had a few spots of rain here, large-ish drops too. What looks like a finger of rain to my south on the radar, Bridgnorth maybe, heading between Telford and Wolves at a guess.

[Nick L]

Couple of spots of rain and a very menacing sky. Surprised when I looked at the radar to see absolutely nothing.