Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Snowy Easterly]

Unsettled from UKMO tonight

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

Wonder if ECM will offer anything different

Descriptive as always Gav

[Summer Sun]

Not much change from ECM looking like staying unsettled into mid month

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

Pressure could rise as we move into the second half of June

[Robbie Garrett]

Yes but thats

Yes but since those tentative signs don't appear until well into f1 (lala-land) territory, i wouldn't attach much significance to it until you see the same signals repeated within more reliable T144 time frame. My gut feeling at the moment is that we're on course for a rinse repeat of Summer 2007/2009

That would have been my thinking 3 days ago, but good agreement of something settled end of June IMHO. Not sure what the latest CFS run is playing about, something not quite right in this data run... hasn't been as good as this mornings, looks rather unsettled very quickly after 3-4 day very hot spell.

Anyway, good suggestions are a flat-lined NAO/AO come mid June, which would probably go with the Netweather Summer Forecast.

I think we are on for a 2005/2006 style Summer, but we shall see.

Edited June 1, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[MP-R]

Where many are likening this summer with 2007 already, I'm struggling to see any set pattern in the last few months - we've literally had a bit of everything. April was very unsettled from the west and northwest, which then became unsettled from the southeast and northeast during May, then the west again before turning settled - now it's back to square one with our Atlantic train starting from low pressure undercuts.

As a result, I can't see where the next few weeks are going. The GFS shows a pretty unsettled week coming up, especially for the southern half of the country but with tentative signs of more of a NW/SE split setting up by week two of June which may lead to high pressure being drawn up from the SW with time which did lead to a hot and humid spell at the end of last June.

Just a coincidence that the start of this unseasonal weather is timed perfectly with a Bank Holiday - again!

[Cheese Rice]

NAE going for a max of just 7.c across central northern England for Sunday. A huge contrast of the maxes of 27.c achieved earlier this week.

With uppers of -2 I wouldn't be surprised if the rain turned to snow over the hills.

Edited June 1, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[WhiteFox]

Where many are likening this summer with 2007 already, I'm struggling to see any set pattern in the last few months - we've literally had a bit of everything. April was very unsettled from the west and northwest, which then became unsettled from the southeast and northeast during May, then the west again before turning settled - now it's back to square one with our Atlantic train starting from low pressure undercuts.

As a result, I can't see where the next few weeks are going. The GFS shows a pretty unsettled week coming up, especially for the southern half of the country but with tentative signs of more of a NW/SE split setting up by week two of June which may lead to high pressure being drawn up from the SW with time which did lead to a hot and humid spell at the end of last June.

Just a coincidence that the start of this unseasonal weather is timed perfectly with a Bank Holiday - again!

July 2007 was as anomolous as Jan 1987 in terms of extreme weather and it seems to be going down as the benchmark for bad summers in the same way that Jan 1987 is the benchmark of cold winter weather. (i recognise that the quoted poster is not falling into this trap). I read a hydrological study of 2007 recently and the chances of a June/July 2007 rainfall event are approximately 1 in 1000 each year, so please people, don't get carried away by a little unsettled weather. The UK climate is not one of extremes, but rather one of a week of good, a week of bad. Hyperbole is not a science...

[phil nw.]

Can we stay on topic please.

Some posts are discussing past Summers or consist of speculative punts on this Summer rather than commenting on current model output.

There are threads for these other subjects and also comments related to the Net Weather Summer Forecast.

[Methuselah]

Two things of potential interest (GFS): that blob of sub -5 air 'eventually' dies a death away up to the NW, and there are very tentative suggestions that the Azores HP might start to extend towards S England, later in the period???

[Summer Sun]

FI in GFS is now starting to pick up on a possible pressure rise from mid month as discussed yesterday

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[phil nw.]

The 00z modelling continues with a cool and rather unsettled outlook for this coming week.

Certainly over the BH period up to Monday southern and central areas will be wet at times as a frontal system becomes slowmoving as it comes in from the south west.

Higher pressure further north over Scotland and N.Ireland should leave them dry and bright at times with more broken cloud,although still cool for the time of year.

A brief ridge of high pressure around midweek extends this drier and brighter weather to include much of the country and perhaps feeling a little warmer in any sunshine.

Unfortunately more fronts and low pressure extends from the Atlantic towards the end of the week and brings the unsettled conditions back in from the south west.

So a mixed week to come with the likelhood of some drier weather around midweek before more rain later.

At this stage there is little sign of a marked improvemt as we enter week 2 of the modelling period.

If we view the upper air(500hPa)heights anomol. for days 6-10 then we can see that persitent trough still situated near the UK.

A hint though that the flow should have more of a southerly component as the main core of low pressure could ease just to our west by then.This should start to introduce a warmer and more humid feel to things,especially further south.

[karyo]

Low pressure galore for next week according to all major models. The ECM in particular is showing some rather deep southerly tracking lows! There should be some nice convective weather between the rain bands.

I wonder to what extend the low solar activity is responsible for this?

Karyo

[MP-R]

There are number of words that could describe the outlook progged by the models today - 'autumnal', 'awful', 'abysmal'... take your pick.

The GFS shows a perfect example of this 'return of the westerlies' that normally doesn't happen if at all until the final third of the month as in 2008, 2004 & 2002. The latter part of next week in particular looks dire with a lot of rain, especially for the southern half of the country, resembling last year's 12th June very much. Even FI doesn't show much hope of improvement with only a slight pressure rise to the south probably allowing for things to dry out again in the south but not overly sunny. I suppose on the plus side, with winds originating mainly from the southwest, temperatures will be close to average if not slightly above in sunny spells towards the eastern side of the country.

Apologies for my pessimism, but I can't see anything to be happy about weatherwise at the moment - I certainly don't consider early June to be a time of year to become unsettled again after what was an already-unsettled-enough May.

[johnholmes]

There are number of words that could describe the outlook progged by the models today - 'autumnal', 'awful', 'abysmal'... take your pick.

The GFS shows a perfect example of this 'return of the westerlies' that normally doesn't happen if at all until the final third of the month as in 2008, 2004 & 2002. The latter part of next week in particular looks dire with a lot of rain, especially for the southern half of the country, resembling last year's 12th June very much. Even FI doesn't show much hope of improvement with only a slight pressure rise to the south probably allowing for things to dry out again in the south but not overly sunny. I suppose on the plus side, with winds originating mainly from the southwest, temperatures will be close to average if not slightly above in sunny spells towards the eastern side of the country.

Apologies for my pessimism, but I can't see anything to be happy about weatherwise at the moment - I certainly don't consider early June to be a time of year to become unsettled again after what was an already-unsettled-enough May.

pessimism must be your middle name if you have already forgotten the warmth and dryness of most of the latter part of May=9 days here with temperatures of 24C or more and no rain in that time. 2 weeks in early June is unusual for wet and cool weather in your view which is frankly not a correct comment. Beyond that and the tentative indications from teleconnections is warmer and more settled, much as the signals were starting to show something changing in late April-early May.

So to those unused to 'reading' posts and the models please do not pay too much attention to the pessimistic post from MHR-no nastiness towards you intended MHR but I would like folks with little experience not to be put off summer already!

Edited June 2, 2012 by johnholmes

[Scorcher]

So to those unused to 'reading' posts and the models please do not pay too much attention to the pessimistic post from MHR-no nastiness towards you intended MHR but I would like folks with little experience not to be put off summer already!

It's not only him John, lots of people in this thread have been doing the same thing. Some worse than others! I think of it as the '2007 syndrome' as the horror of that summer has stayed with many I think and as soon as people see high pressure over Greenland they become convinced it is going to stick around for months on end. The fact is the patterns so far this year have been very different to previous years- I really can't see what 2012 has in common with the last few years. Certainly unsettled and rather cool for the next week (not cold apart from tomorrow and Monday) but beyond that we can't be certain.

[yido]

pessimism must be your middle name if you have already forgotten the warmth and dryness of most of the latter part of May=9 days here with temperatures of 24C or more and no rain in that time. 2 weeks in early June is unusual for wet and cool weather in your view which is frankly not a correct comment. Beyond that and the tentative indications from teleconnections is warmer and more settled, much as the signals were starting to show something changing in late April-early May.

So to those unused to 'reading' posts and the models please do not pay too much attention to the pessimistic post from MHR-no nastiness towards you intended MHR but I would like folks with little experience not to be put off summer already!

Thank you for this balanced response John, very much appreciated for those of us who cant read the charts as well as us

[Thundery wintry showers]

Low pressure galore for next week according to all major models. The ECM in particular is showing some rather deep southerly tracking lows! There should be some nice convective weather between the rain bands.

I am currently thinking that this is fairly unlikely due to the strength of the jet and the amount of frontal activity around. Following the weekend's rain Monday looks like being a bright showery day for most of us, but then the Atlantic weather systems will pile in from Tuesday onwards and the GFS precipitation outputs point to a lot of frontal activity.

The UKMO and ECMWF continue to project more frequent pressure/height rises over central Europe than the GFS, but with the mean trough almost upon the British Isles and a strong jet across the Atlantic, it would result in a cloudy wet scenario with temperatures near rather than below average. A weaker jet might have given us a shot at a warmer and sunnier changeable pattern like we saw for much of June 2003, but the "return of the westerlies" does look like it's kicked off earlier than usual. Remember, though, that this sort of thing happened in 1990 and 1991 and bear in mind the Julys and Augusts that followed, so it's too early to be writing off summer. The teleconnection support for a westward drift of the trough might also set us up for a more June 2003-esque pattern late in the month.

[Geordiesnow]

I think the comparisons making to 2007 when looking at the models are perhaps a little bit extreme in terms of timing as this could just be simply an unsettled period we are heading in but with height rises over Greenland and the Arctic dipole dominating then you can see why people are fearing the worse, of course the models has only slightly hinted at perhaps lower heights across Greenland but it seems seems tentative signs were only just that but we shall see.

Remember, whilst it does not guarantee fine and settled weather, if we do lose the blocking at higher latitudes and in the Arctic, we may head into a more settled spell but we just have to see how things develop.

So instead of moaning, comment on what the runs are showing, and it does look an unsettled week with the potential of some more windier weather by the end of the week, as ever in these situations, parts of NW Scotland tends to get the best of the weather and it does look like it could be a mostly dry week whilst other places are in line for rain/showers but with slightly warmer uppers, temperatures should rise a little, one small crumb of comfort.

[Uncle_Barty]

It's not only him John, lots of people in this thread have been doing the same thing. Some worse than others! I think of it as the '2007 syndrome' as the horror of that summer has stayed with many I think and as soon as people see high pressure over Greenland they become convinced it is going to stick around for months on end. The fact is the patterns so far this year have been very different to previous years- I really can't see what 2012 has in common with the last few years. Certainly unsettled and rather cool for the next week (not cold apart from tomorrow and Monday) but beyond that we can't be certain.

I think you're right - recent summers and especially 2007 has perhaps coloured some people's juidgement somewhat. I wasn't following model output very closely in 2003 and this wasnt available to us in the 90s, so I wonder what was being shown then.

Personally I have a feeling of dread when strong heights over Greenland magically appear in early June, because in recent years upper air patterns have been slow to shift.

I certainly don't think (on the basis of what GP said the other day) that we are in for a rerun of 2007. That was exceptional - apart from the rainfall, I failed to exceed 23c for a 4 month period straddling the summer solstice. But until the upper air pattern shifts, I will always worry about it sticking for many weeks writing off the major part of summer. Expressing fears about such a pattern sticking isnt the same as 'writing off summer'.

Having said all that, yes the MO looks awful at the moment as it did for a major proportion of May, but this time next weerk it could all look very different. We have all seen it before - the 'feel' of MO can change significantly in quite a short period of time.

[J10]

From a sun weather perspective this coming week seems to be the 2nd worst scenario in summer. [at least for southern parts of the UK] , with a succession of low pressure systems moving west to east over the UK.

The worst pattern is [iMO] where there is a low pressure systems anchored over the UK, and only slowly fills and edges away to the NE.

Te above chart is a forecast from GFS of rainfall totals over the next 144 hrs, of course GFS is renowned for over egging rainfall totals, however an inch of rain is more than possible over most if not all of the south of the UK in this time frame.

So the next week looks unsettled but the recent hot spell after an equally unsettled start to May shows that we cannot right off June, even if initial indications that Week 2 in June [FI at this stage] looks unsettled as well.

[MP-R]

pessimism must be your middle name if you have already forgotten the warmth and dryness of most of the latter part of May=9 days here with temperatures of 24C or more and no rain in that time. 2 weeks in early June is unusual for wet and cool weather in your view which is frankly not a correct comment. Beyond that and the tentative indications from teleconnections is warmer and more settled, much as the signals were starting to show something changing in late April-early May.

So to those unused to 'reading' posts and the models please do not pay too much attention to the pessimistic post from MHR-no nastiness towards you intended MHR but I would like folks with little experience not to be put off summer already!

Haha, non taken JH. You're quite right, I am very pessimistic when persistent bad weather is shown at a time of year when most would prefer nice weather... I think more so when there is such a dramatic change for the worst (I may not be so pessimistic if the wet May had continued into the final 10 days of the month). Though I must reiterate that certainly in the years that I have been alive wet and unsettled first halves of June have been the exception and not the rule, perhaps only 1997, 1998 and 2011 fitting the bill. I always though the return of the westerlies was the process that brings more unsettled weather in July and August, only starting up at the tale end of June e.g. in 2004.

I would say a big player in the anchoring of lows over are area is the constant location of high pressure to the north of the UK throughout the GFS. I'm not falling into the trap of saying summer 2007 is about to repeat itself because long range forecasts do not paint this picture at all but it can't be denied that there is very little to be positive about in the current GFS projections. Also, I do not wish to provoke arguments either - I do try and keep as objective as possible but it is very hard to be 100% objective without the odd opinion being added.

[phil nw.]

Just a general request in response to some recent posts.

Comparisons with previous years can quickly take the thread off topic so please keeep such comments to a minimum and concentate on current model outputs.

We want members and visitors alike to be able to come here and acquire information and read our views about the latest outputs.

Thanks.

[damianslaw]

Models all show a very disturbed spell ahead for the foreseeable future the atlantic trough anchored firmly in place over the country and as a consequence we are about to see frontal attack after frontal attack from the west bringing heavy rain and very dissapointing temperatures for the time of year. A distinctly unsummery outlook with the azores high nowhere to be seen and northern blocking very much in residence.

Can't see much changing as we head further towards the middle of the month, but some long range forecasts and teleconnection predictions do suggest the trough may lift out to the NW in time as we move through the month or more likely simply be forced to retreat westwards as we see euro heights building north into southern scandi stopping the trough in its tracks which would then mean greater chance for some warm, possibly hot and very humid air from the south - and depending on the position of the trough potentially some very unstable air resulting in thundery downpours - but any signs of such developments remains a long way off,and it looks like we are just going to have to ride the atlantic train for a while, hoping it gets derailed before too long..

[Lewis]

Looking at the models it suggests we are going through a period of considerable change to what we have had of late. It's this type of weather that gives me muffled ears, and headaches "lower pressure", so I hope it does not last long.

Over the past few years we seem to have a pretty warm start to may, with some hot temperatures , but an Atlantic, more zonal pattern soon reemerges and continues in to the middle of June.

Will be interesting to see the pattern of the Jet when we enter mid- June early July, the last 2 months have panned out just like May/June 2007, I just hope we don't get a July like it!

Lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Alot of jumping on the bandwagon on here by some, didn't recall this much optimism in the last thread until a certain forecast came out. Would be nice if those forecasting a warmer end to June posted charts to support their claim, from a learning perspective this would be very helpful as looking at the models I can't see anything occurring.

With Northern Blocking in full force this type of pattern will lock itself in for several weeks. Southerly tracking lows becoming more apparent, inline with the Met Office idea of the mildest temperatures in the north with the South experiencing the coolest temperatures under cloud and rain. A dire outlook that is likely to persist into the second half of June.

We could see some warmer 850s dragged north associated with the lows which if all timed perfectly could bring the odd hot day.

Edited June 2, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Summer Sun]

Hints of high pressure building again tonight as we enter the second half of June, but before then it looks like a couple of unsettled weeks of weather to come, it could be quite windy later next week for a time with a mixture of sunshine and showers, I wouldn't rule out hail and thunder for some at times either

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

EDIT

Just to show how warm the air could be come the end of FI, plenty of heat building in France

Edited June 2, 2012 by Gavin D