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Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012


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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted

In the meantime, as many know the models are painting a pretty unsettled picture with bands of rain crossing the UK at times and maybe some quite strong winds later next week, as well as brighter/sunnier days in between with some convective showery weather suggested by the GFS on a couple days (looking at the CAPE charts for Wednesday for example) that could provide interesting weather meteorologically. The GFS output also shows temperatures reaching 16-18C across a good part of more central/southern areas on such days, and as the model can under-estimate maxima often, maxima should easily reach the high teens (around average for June) on these brighter days next week.

Hardly the best output for those wanting dry/warm conditions, but due to the wind direction it shouldn't be too cold (except maybe under rain bands tomorrow/Monday), so it isn't the worst possible outlook either IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Rochdale ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Rochdale ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Signs of promise in tonights GFS, FI much improved.

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

Please stick to the models. If you disagree with a post someone has made, then post charts and explain what you think is happening instead. Posts which argue and offer nothing in the way of solid evidence just lead to arguments.

Posted
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands
Posted

the UKMO has temps of 14c for tomorrow in london and if it dries out it won't feel too bad for the jubilee celebrations

so its an upgrade, as it was supposed to be 9 or 10c, but of course you won't hear Publus engima mention this upgrade

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

the UKMO has temps of 14c for tomorrow in london and if it dries out it won't feel too bad for the jubilee celebrations

so its an upgrade, as it was supposed to be 9 or 10c, but of course you won't hear Publus engima mention this upgrade

Thats more to do with the positioning of the rainband which has moved slightly further north during the last 36-48 hours. It has warmer air to the south of it which London now looks to be under in the afternoon.

Temperatures of 9-11C still look likely under the rainband, so the Midlands and southern parts of Northern England look to have a pretty poor day tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3017.png

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Hints of high pressure building again tonight as we enter the second half of June, but before then it looks like a couple of unsettled weeks of weather to come, it could be quite windy later next week for a time with a mixture of sunshine and showers, I wouldn't rule out hail and thunder for some at times either

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

EDIT

Just to show how warm the air could be come the end of FI, plenty of heat building in France

h850t850eu.png

The heat is building in France due to a high pressure buffer to the north over Scotland which means the heat either rises to the

North east or trickles away to its west.. We have North Sea temps under a NE flow and low cloud, with temps in the low

teens.. You can see incredible temperature contrasts under just the set up you've posted.

Impressive.

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Thats more to do with the positioning of the rainband which has moved slightly further north during the last 36-48 hours. It has warmer air to the south of it which London now looks to be under in the afternoon.

Temperatures of 9-11C still look likely under the rainband, so the Midlands and southern parts of Northern England look to have a pretty poor day tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3017.png

Slightly more seasonal.. In fact I would add a degree or two to the south, maybe 14 or a magic 15oC, but maybe only an 9 or 10oC further north under the rain band.

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted

Recm2401.gif

The cool green upper trough is over the British Isles for the entire duration of tonights ECM run. As it was through the entire month

of April and most of May. One does wonder if this is almost its preferred summer location, as any kind of northern blocking be it

Greenland, Iceland, Arctic or Russia seems to end up with the trough over us. Its synonymous with the modern british summer.

Lets hope it shifts before we get to July in the hope that something resembling summer can begin. We're not much more than

2 weeks from Midsummer, although you would never believe it looking at the weather progged for next week, with wave after wave

of lows move east but moving up from 40oN to our SW.

brack4.gif

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted

The heat is building in France due to a high pressure buffer to the north over Scotland which means the heat either rises to the

North east or trickles away to its west.. We have North Sea temps under a NE flow and low cloud, with temps in the low

teens.. You can see incredible temperature contrasts under just the set up you've posted.

Impressive.

I've seen set-ups like those before and time and time again it is warm/very warm here (mid 20's or more) and sunny, as it is away from many places away from the east coast (there isn't even much of an easterly away from the south there. Have you forgotten the spell just gone which came from mainly easterly/NE winds?

Sorry if this is off topic/argumentative and I can see how it may appear to be, I just think it's better to make things slightly less miss-leading to some people that can't read charts too well (and it is discussing a chart from a model in a way).

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Thats more to do with the positioning of the rainband which has moved slightly further north during the last 36-48 hours. It has warmer air to the south of it which London now looks to be under in the afternoon.

Temperatures of 9-11C still look likely under the rainband, so the Midlands and southern parts of Northern England look to have a pretty poor day tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3017.png

Quite - massive upgrade here in terms of rainfall, possibly 20mm with maxes of just 9C - ridiculous for June.

Posted
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
Posted

Signs of hope in GFS FI especially for me in the NW, also East Wales & West Mids

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Thats more to do with the positioning of the rainband which has moved slightly further north during the last 36-48 hours. It has warmer air to the south of it which London now looks to be under in the afternoon.

Temperatures of 9-11C still look likely under the rainband, so the Midlands and southern parts of Northern England look to have a pretty poor day tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3017.png

Hi Reef,

The NMM has the band of precipitation much further South on the latest run, with the heaviest of the precipitation staying across Lincolnshire Southwards, with us perhaps escaping the heaviest and more prolonged precipitation.

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

. We're not much more than 2 weeks from Midsummer, although you would never believe it looking at the weather progged for next week, with wave after wave

of lows move east but moving up from 40oN to our SW.

I can believe it as we've just experienced a week of mainly sunny skies and temps of 25-28c (not all of the UK). It was absolutely magnificent and something that has been lacking over the past number of years. Certainly got off to an excellent start, a bit of rain in between can't be bad as we need a top up. smile.png

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted

Quite - massive upgrade here in terms of rainfall, possibly 20mm with maxes of just 9C - ridiculous for June.

9.c would feel better than what is currently forecast for this area of Leeds

post-8968-0-37383200-1338676623_thumb.pn

7.c anyone?

We've had higher maxes in January!

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted

9.c would feel better than what is currently forecast for this area of Leeds

post-8968-0-37383200-1338676623_thumb.pn

7.c anyone?

We've had higher maxes in January!

And we've had lower minimums in June! :p

I don't know what people expect temperatures to be, but with the 0-+2 850 line across us or close by, and precipitation, heavy and slow moving temperatures are going to drop and be on the low side, regardless of what time of the year, if it was in January we would be looking at snow over the hills falling to lower levels due to evaporative cooling.

We've had a very dry period with temperatures above average, now it's the turn of the rain, let's hope the next pattern includes the keyword "thunder". :)

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion
Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion

9.c would feel better than what is currently forecast for this area of Leeds

post-8968-0-37383200-1338676623_thumb.pn

7.c anyone?

We've had higher maxes in January!

Not surprised considering Leeds is such a cold place blum.gif

Posted
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands
Posted

errr, Publius, Mid summer is about mid july not mid june

next week may not be as bad as you think, temps are about 17 or 18 in the south which is about average and in between the rain it will feel pleasant in any sun,

its not gonna be wave after wave of lows, probably about 2 lows in 6 days,

Posted
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
Posted

GFS shows the atlantic dying out in deep FI. Yes, I know its deep FI, but I can dream :)

Posted
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion
Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion

Recm2401.gif

The cool green upper trough is over the British Isles for the entire duration of tonights ECM run. As it was through the entire month

of April and most of May. One does wonder if this is almost its preferred summer location, as any kind of northern blocking be it

Greenland, Iceland, Arctic or Russia seems to end up with the trough over us. Its synonymous with the modern british summer.

Lets hope it shifts before we get to July in the hope that something resembling summer can begin. We're not much more than

2 weeks from Midsummer, although you would never believe it looking at the weather progged for next week, with wave after wave

of lows move east but moving up from 40oN to our SW.

brack4.gif

Stop exaggerating

If the May heatwave taught us anything (the September 2011 heatwave too), it's that things can change very quickly.

It wasn't until about 5 days prior to the warm spell in May that people began to forecast. If you look at the model forecasting threads a week before it began, everybody was still moaning about how the models were still forecasting unsettled weather.

So don't write the month off just yet, as there's every possibility that the last two thirds of the month could be warm and settled

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion
Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion

9.c would feel better than what is currently forecast for this area of Leeds

post-8968-0-37383200-1338676623_thumb.pn

7.c anyone?

We've had higher maxes in January!

What was the temperature Christmas Day ? Im sure it was a few degrees warmer than that. 7oC Is mid January average day temps !

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion
Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Not Model Discussion

We've had a very dry period with temperatures above average, now it's the turn of the rain,.. smile.png

Lewis

?

From 1st April we have had endless rain and cloud save a brief 8 or 9 days window with some sun and a breather from the onslaught

of rain, which now has resumed and looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. I wonder when we will see another week or so

of unbroken sunshine.. Nothing remotely promising right out to FI and beyond.

Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Enough now-let`s keep it objective not speculative
Hidden by phil nw., June 3, 2012 - Enough now-let`s keep it objective not speculative

Stop exaggerating

If the May heatwave taught us anything (the September 2011 heatwave too), it's that things can change very quickly.

It wasn't until about 5 days prior to the warm spell in May that people began to forecast. If you look at the model forecasting threads a week before it began, everybody was still moaning about how the models were still forecasting unsettled weather.

So don't write the month off just yet, as there's every possibility that the last two thirds of the month could be warm and settled

Good point Slowpoke, whilst it looks dire out and beyond we can only hope for the trough to wobble a bit westwards and some warmer south easterlies to tuck in and bring some

surprise warmth. The main player that has been missing for the last 5 summers is the Azores HP. Next week it is absolutely miles away, in Fact it is somewhere in Mid Atlantic far to the west of the

Canary Islands, with a Greenland HP taking control of events.. Without a strong summer Azores HP showing 7 days away, I wounding want to declare that there would be a possibility of a warm and settled

last two months of June.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Some posts have been removed because they contribute nothing to this thread or are argumentative.

If you wish to disagree with something please included some data images a or a link to the models.

If you cant be bothered then use the PM system to sort it out.

As we have said before there`s always the ignore button-if you prefer not to view certain posters.

We do not want this thread cluttered with subjective views.

Now can we get back on topic, thanks.

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