Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[bluearmy]

Some signs that the developing -AO will bring lower heights to the east of Canada and subsequently Greenland area by mid month. Problem with this is that whilst it seems to promote some amplified ridging, it is also a mobile pattern so any improvement may well be to a more changeable one around mid month. We can hope that is a transition to a settled period to follow but currently, that's purely conjecture.

[Summer Sun]

Continued hints of something warmer in FI this morning, but before then we have unsettled weather lasting for another 14 days or so before any changes may begin to happen

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

ECM remains unsettled

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

UKMO is also unsettled with winds no looking as strong as they did yesterday

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[The PIT]

Well ECM and GFS in very good agreement over unsettled weather the main differances being the position of the lowes and how fast they move through. Either way it's looking wet with temps close to or below average. Chances of frost in the next few days as well. Certainly a year of stark contrasts cold to warm to cold again.

[Scorcher]

I can't really see these cold temperatures after tomorrow, certainly going by GFS, the south and east could well be seeing temperatures up to the seasonal average. GFS showing temperatures of 18-20C for midweek and then similar values again for the weekend. In fact if GFS is correct we could well see 22C in the far south next weekend and many areas of southern and central England could see 19C which is marginally above average in some of those areas in early June.

[The Northern Ramper]

The Met Office seemed to suggest it would feel pretty nice when the sun came out, but would feel quite cool in the rainy bits. The MJO is now in phase 4 currently after a short spell in phase 3. It at the moment is safe to say that yes there is northern blocking with a southerly tracking jet stream, but I do feel that this sort of set up will loosen up when the MJO veers to phases 5 and 6.

And how long until that happens approx?

[Robbie Garrett]

And how long until that happens approx?

Some signs that the developing -AO will bring lower heights to the east of Canada and subsequently Greenland area by mid month. Problem with this is that whilst it seems to promote some amplified ridging, it is also a mobile pattern so any improvement may well be to a more changeable one around mid month. We can hope that is a transition to a settled period to follow but currently, that's purely conjecture.

The Met Office seemed to suggest it would feel pretty nice when the sun came out, but would feel quite cool in the rainy bits. The MJO is now in phase 4 currently after a short spell in phase 3. It at the moment is safe to say that yes there is northern blocking with a southerly tracking jet stream, but I do feel that this sort of set up will loosen up when the MJO veers to phases 5 and 6.

I'd only expect the transition to a pattern change to be around 19-27th June, with temperatures probably peaking something very similar to last year with probably a 3 day heatwave according to the long range 1 month CFS. NAO very indicative of things heading to a more neutral state but this could change. I suspect the Greenland high to get going again as we move into July, as this was the unexpected part, will it or wont it??

That pattern change may be quite warm, but quite thundery... what things go after that is anyone's guess at the moment. I personally think the NAO/AO in low solar activity is the best guess for a forecast due to it's relationship with Northern Blocking which seems to have plagued our weather recently. Let's see.

[Polar Maritime]

"I personally think the NAO/AO in low solar activity is the best guess for a forecast due to it's relationship with Northern Blocking which seems to have plagued our weather recently. Let's see."

Hi Robbie, When using Solar Activity in forecasts there are time lags between Solar Activity and terrestrial weather which can vary.

See http://arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0312/0312244.pdf

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=2

all i can is get the wellies out for the next 2 weeks its looking wet!!!

[ribster]

errr, Publius, Mid summer is about mid july not mid june

next week may not be as bad as you think, temps are about 17 or 18 in the south which is about average and in between the rain it will feel pleasant in any sun,

its not gonna be wave after wave of lows, probably about 2 lows in 6 days,

Midsummers day is 21st June (24th, if you want to argue the point), which is different to the middle of summer.

GFS does offer some hope towards the end of the run, which could be perfect timing for my trip to the Scottish mountains. Would definitely be preferable to lows crashing in from the west.

Edited June 3, 2012 by ribster

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.meteociel...&ech=108&mode=2

all i can is get the wellies out for the next 2 weeks its looking wet!!!

Yes quite...It's looking like we are back into the pattern we were stuck in during April.

Rinse and repeat...?

[TonyH]

A model informed but regionally selective guide to the week ahead:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4418-weather-guide-monday-4th-to-sunday-10th-june-west-wales-and-central-midlands-specific/

[Iceaxecrampon]

The Met Office seemed to suggest it would feel pretty nice when the sun came out, but would feel quite cool in the rainy bits. The MJO is now in phase 4 currently after a short spell in phase 3. It at the moment is safe to say that yes there is northern blocking with a southerly tracking jet stream, but I do feel that this sort of set up will loosen up when the MJO veers to phases 5 and 6.

Excellent forecast.

Edited June 3, 2012 by Iceaxecrampon

[summer blizzard]

Bad!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem121.gif

Horrific!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

Awful!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

Cling onto whatever crumbs of comfort you like but this is the worst summer output which i have ever seen!

[wimblettben]

At present it does look unsettled for the next few weeks. Some outputs show it being quite windy at times for the time of year.

[shedhead]

Well the old saying goes you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear, but tbh the latest runs are more like another 3 letter part of the sow and I'm not talking the leg! I'm really struggling to see any way out of this rut atm, with the longer term GFS still showing the all to familiar HP set up to our north and south, with system after system being squeezed through the middle across us. Really reluctant to write June off with 27.5 days of it still to go, but at present there's no signs of the pattern change needed to bring about some fine, dry and warm weather, indeed to suggest otherwise is a tad misleading imo.

Edited June 3, 2012 by shedhead

[Cloud 10]

Bad!

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rgem121.gif

Horrific!

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem1201.gif

Awful!

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

Cling onto whatever crumbs of comfort you like but this is the worst summer output which i have ever seen!

I think we are in need of a "moaning about summer" thread.

[MP-R]

I think we are in need of a "moaning about summer" thread.

Lol, was just about to say that myself. While nothing that even resembles June appears in the models, there will be a lot of whinging and whining (me being guilty of this).

[Thundery wintry showers]

There has been very little detail on the upcoming week in recent posts (bar the fact that it will be unsettled with low pressure) so it's worth filling everyone in on the likely prospects for the coming week and into next weekend.

Tomorrow is looking like a brighter day for most with some scattered showers, with the south-west probably seeing the fewest showers. With rain belts coming through at intervals, Tuesday and Thursday look like being dull and wet for the vast majority, but Wednesday may offer brighter prospects and something for the convective/storm lovers, particularly in eastern areas where convective available potential energy will be moderately high with fairly slack low pressure over the northern half of Scotland- thus a mix of sun and sharp showers with fairly widespread thunder though no particularly major thunderstorms. Brighter, showery weather is also possible for Friday and the weekend although with a vigorous low pressure system and strong winds I think cloud will be more widespread than on Wednesday with lower chance of thunder. Active rain belts between Thursday and the weekend may result in localised flooding in the west and the south-west may be particularly wet relative to normal.

I have a feeling that the jet stream will slow down towards midmonth allowing longer brighter showery periods in between the rain belts but this is by no means certain.

[shedhead]

There has been very little detail on the upcoming week in recent posts (bar the fact that it will be unsettled with low pressure) so it's worth filling everyone in on the likely prospects for the coming week and into next weekend.

Tomorrow is looking like a brighter day for most with some scattered showers, with the south-west probably seeing the fewest showers. With rain belts coming through at intervals, Tuesday and Thursday look like being dull and wet for the vast majority, but Wednesday may offer brighter prospects and something for the convective/storm lovers, particularly in eastern areas where convective available potential energy will be moderately high with fairly slack low pressure over the northern half of Scotland- thus a mix of sun and sharp showers with fairly widespread thunder though no particularly major thunderstorms. Brighter, showery weather is also possible for Friday and the weekend although with a vigorous low pressure system and strong winds I think cloud will be more widespread than on Wednesday with lower chance of thunder. Active rain belts between Thursday and the weekend may result in localised flooding in the west and the south-west may be particularly wet relative to normal.

I have a feeling that the jet stream will slow down towards midmonth allowing longer brighter showery periods in between the rain belts but this is by no means certain.

If that is you offering a straw to clutch TWS, let me tell you it ain't much of a straw....

[Methuselah]

What is it about 'press the report button' and 'please make fewer "partisan" posts' that is so hard to understand? Please comment on what the models are saying, and not on what you wish they were saying?

[Robbie Garrett]

Bad!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem121.gif

Horrific!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

Awful!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

Cling onto whatever crumbs of comfort you like but this is the worst summer output which i have ever seen!

We are way overdue a 'monsoon' wet spell, just as much as a good summer. Considering weve had a wet spring, with a decent settled spell (march + late may) I'm sure summer will spring something up.

[IanM]

General weather chat and discussion is the second sub forum above this one, I think some of you have accidentally hit the wrong link and arrived here? Please stay on topic, that being Model Discussion, and save the team from having to wade through multiple reported posts and see the model thread descend into a raft of responses to posts that shouldn't even be in here.

Thank you

[The Northern Ramper]

Not sure i completely agree with posts about no signs of improvement or pattern changes.

There is a definite trend for high pressure to build in the Atlantic once a couple of the depressions get through in just over a weeks time, this has been on most runs for the last couple of days. This shows the Atlantic slowing down and the chance of better things developing on our shores thereafter.

Yes FI but like i said trend and to counter the no sign argument.

[PubliusEnigma]

A week's time and we seem to remain stuck in a rut with a a series of low pressures rotating around one another, locked in by Blocking High's to the North West and South

West. With the upper trough firmly fastened to the British Isles.

Before that, some unseasonably windy weather to contend with which could do some damage to trees in full leaf and unsecured

holiday homes etc...

Charts more reminiscent of Autumn than early Summer..

[Methuselah]

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120603;time=12;ext=384;file=h850t850eu;sess=6dc1612c517c94db9908ad8aa5b88ce6;

What may happen...