Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[PubliusEnigma]

Its amazing how far south the low pressures are tracking by the end of next week. The Azores High is so far south it must be over the Sub tropical regions.

It is interesting that the track of the lows up over Great Britain are dragging some very warm air on their eastern side - 564 dam air over central France and

even 582 dam air very close to the Med Coastline of North Africa. So some very hot air close to southern Spain. For us temps hopefully rising a bit to the mid

teens this week, between the bouts of rain and slow moving showers or longer rainy spells.

At least Next weekends temps are looking a bit better than this one at the moment..

[Summer Sun]

GFS continues to look unsettled for the coming week and into next week FI offers hope still with high pressure shown to build

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

UKMO is also unsettled, but the winds don't look as strong as they do on GFS

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

[MP-R]

This is more like it:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

That is a lot more akin to June. Before then however, a particular unsettled spell to come with lows in a constant spiral around the UK as has been highlighted a few times already. Pressure does rise slightly to the south in the outer reaches of the reliable timeframe and unsettled summerlike weather is reserved for FI at the moment. But for now, a spell of weather very similar to the first week of June last year. It would appear the westerlies have returned pretty earlier this year, as in, only a fortnight or so after they left haha.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This is more like it:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3361.png

That is a lot more akin to June. Before then however, a particular unsettled spell to come with lows in a constant spiral around the UK as has been highlighted a few times already. Pressure does rise slightly to the south in the outer reaches of the reliable timeframe and unsettled summerlike weather is reserved for FI at the moment. But for now, a spell of weather very similar to the first week of June last year. It would appear the westerlies have returned pretty earlier this year, as in, only a fortnight or so after they left haha.

Deepest FI and still looks very cool in the east, reminds me of a Gavin D FI post

[William of Walworth]

Not sure i completely agree with posts about no signs of improvement or pattern changes.

There is a definite trend for high pressure to build in the Atlantic once a couple of the depressions get through in just over a weeks time, this has been on most runs for the last couple of days. This shows the Atlantic slowing down and the chance of better things developing on our shores thereafter.

Yes FI but like i said trend and to counter the no sign argument.

I've been seeing very tentatively positive-ish signals well into FI as well, I would always advise against overconfidently predicting that unsettled/Jet driven conditions will persist unchanged beyond a certain point. LP dominating for the time being in all reliable-timeframe models, true, but beyond that? I'm around the 50/50 mark for chances of a return to more summer like condtions, with HP playing more of an influence, later this month.

[Cloud 10]

An unusually deep area of low pressure affecting the UK on friday being shown on the overnight ECM,which would

give yet more heavy rain and probably gales in south-western areas.

UKMO has a more complicated set-up although still wet.

The GFS is somewhere between the two,but certainly worth keeping an eye on.

[Lewis]

A lot of sharp heavy showers to come today mainly for Eastern areas and central parts of England as we head throughout the course of today.

Small chance of the odd thundery downpour but showers will be slow moving at times increasing rainfall totals that we have had over the past 24-36 hours.

As we head in to Wednesday it's all change again, an area of low pressure from the SW will head towards the U.K we will pick up a S/SW flow, milder upper 850s will be associated with the low pressure, we start to see temperatures rise ever so slightly around the 17-19c mark, with dew pew points in the low to mid teens, as ever with a low pressure system with this track and also angle, they will be an increase in convective energy supportive of thunderstorms.

Areas greatest at risk on Wednesday is Yorkshire Southwards through to central England, East Midlands and EA.

Thursday and Friday will be another similar day to that of Wednesday, in the form of heavy showers and local thunderstorms, although the UK will be truly under the influence of the low pressure as it's centered across the spine of the UK, as a result heavy showers will be much more organised and widespread, and they will be more general areas of heavy rain pivoting around the low pressure.

Wednesday and Friday look supportive of thunderstorms but I expect Friday to deliver more so than Wednesday, it may be that we see the CAPE & LI values/amount of energy diminish as we come closer to the said time frames, I will keep an eye on the GFS model, and will update and make a general forecast using the higher resolution model when its in range, being the NMM from Netweather Extra.

As we head in to next week it looks like we pick up a cooler Northerly flow.

Friday 15Z - GFS 00Z

Lewis

[Summer Sun]

Unsettled from ECM and GFS tonight but both end settled

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[ANYWEATHER]

Unsettled from ECM and GFS tonight but both end settled

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Normal end of run model output!

[Methuselah]

Normal end of run model output!

I was thinking that, too!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Unsettled from ECM and GFS tonight but both end settled

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

that ECMWF seems to end unsettled for all of the UK? and not warm

[summer blizzard]

ECWMF shows no prospect for heat despite the perceived settling down at day 10 and GFS shows a completely inconceivable solution given the train of lows at day 7 and the wrong flow in the mid-Atlantic.

The outlook remains pretty abysmal.

[William of Walworth]

The outlook remains pretty abysmal.

I would strongly warn against overconfidence on that.

Abysmal for now/the coming week, yes.

Abysmal for beyond Day 10?

FI is FI.

[Scorcher]

The outlook remains pretty abysmal.

A very eloquent comment there, I recall you calling the outlook 'poor' only days before the May warm spell began. Therefore I think I'll take your comment with a pinch of salt. Nothing settled showing in the reliable time frame but the hints are still there from both GFS and ECM. As with May we could see changes very suddenly so I would advise those wanting warmer, more settled conditions to keep the faith.

[Cheese Rice]

A very eloquent comment there, I recall you calling the outlook 'poor' only days before the May warm spell began. Therefore I think I'll take your comment with a pinch of salt. Nothing settled showing in the reliable time frame but the hints are still there from both GFS and ECM. As with May we could see changes very suddenly so I would advise those wanting warmer, more settled conditions to keep the faith.

Please do explain your reasoning.

If it's that FI is showing high pressure then your point is invalid as it isn't coming into reliable time frame (sub T192).

Anyway a nice warm day showing up on the NAE.

A showery one yes but in sunshine temperatures should rise to 20.c in the South.

[reef]

A very eloquent comment there, I recall you calling the outlook 'poor' only days before the May warm spell began. Therefore I think I'll take your comment with a pinch of salt. Nothing settled showing in the reliable time frame but the hints are still there from both GFS and ECM. As with May we could see changes very suddenly so I would advise those wanting warmer, more settled conditions to keep the faith.

If anything, its comments like this which are annoying both in summer and winter. Might I suggest if there are hints on both the GFS and ECM of settled weather that you explain what they are, rather than posts which have little substance and cause nothing but arguments (this goes for both those who prefer heat and those who dont I might add).

This is after all the model output discussion thread and if its warm and settled weather that you're looking for then the outlook does indeed remain pretty abysmal. After all, the jet profile at T+120 (perhaps as far out as one should go with any certainty) is poor to say the least:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn12014.png

Strong, zonal and to the south of the UK, suggesting quite a lot of unsettled weather with temperatures at or just below average. There will be good days in between systems like today however, so still plenty of usable weather.

[A Winter's Tale]

A very eloquent comment there, I recall you calling the outlook 'poor' only days before the May warm spell began. Therefore I think I'll take your comment with a pinch of salt. Nothing settled showing in the reliable time frame but the hints are still there from both GFS and ECM. As with May we could see changes very suddenly so I would advise those wanting warmer, more settled conditions to keep the faith.

To be fair, SB was his interpretation on "what the models are actually showing". However like you said, even a consistency in what the models are showing can change in very short notice to something very different. So yes, at the moment, the models are showing an outlook that is poor for ideal summer conditions but following the model runs should give us an indication as to what type of weather the UK will get in the short-terms aswell as the general outlook - its trends and possible changes. "Abysmal" is a bit negative as in my opinion all weather is wonderful but of course there are types of weather that I'd rather see more often or less often. Anyway, regarding the "Abysmal" set-up we're currently in, some more "decent" (if you want to call it that) periods in the weather is possible. For example, the weather for the climax of the jubilee celebrations tonight was lovely in London as well as much of the rest of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. So let's have a look at whether "decent" weather could be on the cards - in the short term - and whether you'll need your umbrella or rain coat and where and when will you need it!

I usually prefer to use GFS so I'll use GFS 18z tonight.

After the Jubilee celebrations, the situation as seen in the chart above shows the UK in a relatively calm, dry and clear period of weather. With the exception of cloud in SW parts of Ireland, Wales and England with an incoming depression the majority of the UK has mostly clear skies with some clouds, although a little more extensive cloud cover over some parts of the north-east of Scotland.

As it's June, sunrise will be early so temperatures will be on the rise from around 4am onwards.

Although the GFS min temperature charts tend to be off the mark, it seems that an air frost is possible in Central areas of the Scottish Highlands. Possibly a touch of ground frost in some other areas. "Abysmal weather", certainly not what you would consider summery - colder than Christmas Day for example - but there's nothing like a good old "touch of frost in the glens" on a summer night. Still if you're, a gardner or farmer, it perhaps isn't the most ideal weather conditions. But who's going to grow strawberries on the Cairngorm massif anyway - those mountains could see some pretty low minima over night, been as low as -3C at the Cairngorm Mountain Summit WS. You also may notice that a "-0C" is on the map in the SE so you can't rule out a touch of frost here too, but nevertheless it is going to be a chilly summer's night except those in Ireland and the SW with the most cloud cover.

If you are early to rise with the 6am sunlight, you may need your early morning raincoat if you are from Ireland, Wales and the SW.

You can see the depression on this chart here, with high pressure over Greenland, we have the jet stream a bt further south than normal so this is why the south has been a bit wetter than the north recently.

9am tomorrow, the front incoming from the west will bring cloud to most parts except East Anglia and parts of the East coast. Patchy rain is likely anywhere from NI to Southampton. Temperatures however should be into the teens.

Midday. Most people will be out and about with events around the country.

Unfortuantly it seems that most of the country could be wet with the heaviest of the ppn around the SW.

And by 3pm, it could be a very wet affair for the events in London, some moisture is possible almost anywhere but sunny spells when the cloud breaks up over Central Scotland could be possible.

So a brief round-up on events tomorrow. Essentially, tonight we see a clear scenario with some cloud in the SW and NE with frost possible in Highland Scotland. An incoming front should initially bring rain in the SW with cloud elsewhere and this rain should spread across the western and southern areas of the UK. Temperatures will be typically around 10-13C in the areas affected by the cloud cover and rainfall, whereas in Scotland where drier and occasionally sunny spells are possible, temperature could get into the mid teens. Beyond tomorrow, we see this rain front push further north, so tomorrow night we see rain move across N England, S and C Scotland with some rain hanging onto Eastern Coasts and Northern Ireland aswell as the potential for thunderstorms in the SW. Wales, Ireland, C England and N Scotland should remain drier and a much milder night is likely. Wednesday sees warmer temperatures for London with 19C possible and elsewhere 15-18C is possible with Scotland a bit cooler. But at the moment, Wednesday looks relatively damp and cloudy. Wednesday night should drier with some clear skies possible in the NE. However, with the current situation of High Pressure over Greenland, low pressure systems from the SW will sweep across the nation with the heaviest of the rain always towards the south. Thursday subsequently looks like a wet day nationwide but some drier spots are likely. Thursday night looks dry from Manchester southwards with very wet conditions over Scotland with the heaviest on the ppn down the east coast. The lower pressure over Scandinavia allows for the low pressure systems to move North eastwards after soaking the rest of the UK from the SW. Friday AT THE MOMENT actually doesn't look that abysmal. Temperatures from Edinburgh to London in the mid to high teens. But most importantly, it's a mostly dry affair with the N of Scotland and Moray coast and Aberdeenshire in particulary likely to experience very wet conditions. Showers, however, are possible in some western areas. And finally, Friday looks drier and settled with the UK sandwhiched between two weather fronts with one system to the NE and another to the SW. Clear spells are possible in eastern areas but the presence of rain in the SW suggests an all so familiar pattern of the UK getting a good soaking from low pressure advaning from SW-NE. Well that's the story to Saturday and inbetween some surprises and subtle regional changes and variables are likely but it does seem wet with some dry spells. Watching the models will give us any indication as to whether we'll expect this pattern of low pressure from the SW moving NE continue beyond the weekend but anyways make the most out of the drier periods between fronts and take advantage of any favourable changes. I feel that yes a classic post 2007 summer pattern will continue in the next 5 days, but some decent periods are possible and I do feel that at any time now, the models will be showing a change in pattern. It will be fascinating to watch this pivotal moment in this summer's weather unfold but I do feel that this time, we could be heading towards that long awaited "proper" summer weather that we've all been waiting for since 2006.

But whatever the weather, enjoy the rest of your jubilee celebrations and make the most out of any more pleasant spells in this "glorious british summer rain".

Good night from me.

[Cheese Rice]

You couldn't explain your reasoning behind post #44, where you say unsettled conditions are "likely" to persist into the second half of June, even though that period wasn't even within range on the models we've got access to?

As I'm sure you are aware High Pressure has a tendency to say in its position, particularity blocked patterns which previous records will indicate (whether it be December 2010 or April 2012) are locked into place over extended periods of time.

Illustrated below with GFS ensembles for Reykjavik

Hence my analysis of unsettled conditions likely to persist into June. None of the members indicate a shift towards lower pressure- quite the opposite. The mean remains in the 110mb/1020mb category. While I don't believe into looking into FI for new trends. If the current synoptics persist well into the depths of FI with little options form various members, a reasonable analysis would be low pressures taking a more southerly route, jet stream firmly to the South of the UK, promoting cooler 850s. As is usually the case with these setups.

[mushymanrob]

Hmmm.... The MJO suggests a rapid transit from phase 5, through to phase 8 and 1 by the end of the prediction. Phase 8 and 1 for june suggest high pressure over/close to us, so some hope possible after a spell of low pressure domination. Id be happier though IF the 500mb anomoly charts supported a phase 8, 1, synoptic. They dont.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The outlook continues to be unsettles this morning. Both the ECM and GFS operationals continue to show low pressure in charge within the reliable time frame.

While the 8-10 day mean shows low pressure centred across or just to the south of the British Isles

The only distant glimmer of hope, for those wanting something more settled, is the GFS ensembles show a trend of rising pressure in the 12-14 day timeframe, with the mean reaching about 1020hPa.

[bluearmy]

Hmmm.... The MJO suggests a rapid transit from phase 5, through to phase 8 and 1 by the end of the prediction. Phase 8 and 1 for june suggest high pressure over/close to us, so some hope possible after a spell of low pressure domination. Id be happier though IF the 500mb anomoly charts supported a phase 8, 1, synoptic. They dont.

Hmm - 'rapid transition'. Don't like forecasts of rapid transitions on the MJO as it doesn't generally behave in that fashion. Maybe its this factor which is translating into the fi modelling failing to produce a consistent pattern whereby we get to higher thickness' and uppers which is where the ens mean continues to have us in a fortnight. I still think we will see the deepish depression rolling out of the eastern us trough trend over the top of a transient ridge as it heads across the Atlantic. Whether that delivers a hit on nw Europe or manages to head further to the north - no idea. Beyond that depression, I think there is a tendency to raise heights here.

[shedhead]

Having trawled through the overnight outputs and looked at the 06 GFS I think there is rather more room for optimism (if fine weather is your thang) emerging now, with a slow but steady improvement in conditions likely from mid month. Up to this point the rather cool, unsettled and often wet pattern is expected to persist, but as the Jet weakens pressure does look set to rise, with conditions slowly starting to improve from the south about a week from now.

[Summer Sun]

Having trawled through the overnight outputs and looked at the 06 GFS I think there is rather more room for optimism (if fine weather is your thang) emerging now, with a slow but steady improvement in conditions likely from mid month. Up to this point the rather cool, unsettled and often wet pattern is expected to persist, but as the Jet weakens pressure does look set to rise, with conditions slowly starting to improve from the south about a week from now.

Yes FI continues to offer hope of something better as we move into the final few weeks of June

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[summer blizzard]

I would strongly warn against overconfidence on that.

Abysmal for now/the coming week, yes.

Abysmal for beyond Day 10?

FI is FI.

My comments are based within the day 10 timeframe, all i see is low after low, a northerly and then a warmer low.

Anybody that thinks this is a good outlook probably thinks England will win Euro 2012, i have viewed the models long enough to know what good and bad synoptic outlooks are and this is bad.

[SP1986]

Yes synoptically there has been no change from the last few summers, so you would expect this pattern to hold fast for next month and least, but we know suggesting that is illegal. I'm not sure I can see a changee occurring anytime soon either, I do think we are going to have to be either very very patient, or resigned. Either way the evidence on the table right now, doesn't suggest a huge amount of optimism for what people might see as a fairy tale summer.