Typhoon Mawar

[Konstantinos]

This will be a power typhoon...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=04W&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Somerset Squall]

04W has become TS Mawar, with an intensity of 35kts. Excellent banding features flank the well defined LLC. Mawar is in a very good environment for strengthening, with low shear, warm sea temps along track and excellent radial outflow. As Konstantinos says, Mawar could become a fairly intense typhoon, perhaps stronger than the 85kt peak forecast by JTWC. We shall see.

The storm has been heading northwestwards east of Luzon but is now turning towards the north as it rounds the western side of the subtropical ridge to the northeast. The track will probably end up being very similar to Typhoon Sanvu's last week, just further west. As the storm rounds the northwestern periphery of the ridge it will accelerate northeastwards in the mid-lattitude westerlies. These westerlies and falling sea temps will induce extratropical transition towards the middle of next week.

[Somerset Squall]

Mawar has strengthened to 45kts. The convective canopy is becoming larger and is morphing into a central dense overcast feature. This is a sign of a maturing storm which may soon ramp up to typhoon status. Conditions certainly support it as I described earlier.

[Somerset Squall]

Mawar has become the third typhoon of the season with intensity rising to 65kts. Mawar has an established central dense overcast with a developing eye. Strong, impressive banding flanks the typhoon. It is not surprising the Mawar has made this jump in intensity, as shear is low and outflow is impressive in all quadrants. For these reasons, along with high ocean heat content beneath the typhoon, Mawar should strengthen further for the next 36hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Mawar has continued to strengthen, and now has an intensity of 95kts. The typhoon has a large, well defined eye. Further strengthening is expected before shear rises.

[Somerset Squall]

Mawar peaked at 100kts, cat 3 on the SS scale. The typhoon has since weakened slightly to 95kts, as Mawar has ran into higher shear. Mawar is now accelerating to the northeast into cooler waterd and even higher shear, so further weakening is expected from here on in, followed by extratropical transition.

[Cookie]

its long dissipated this was the start of june? :S