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Posted

An update on the track of the hurricane,

Below is a chart showing what 7 computer models are saying based on the 00z runs,

Pretty much all of them follow the same track now as confidence increases.

Next is the GFS ensemble members,

They also give the models good agreement.

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Posted

A quick update using the latest model runs from the 12z,

Above is what the models currently say on its path, still strong agreement of it heading towards Southern Greenland some show it die out there while others carry it on as a weak low pressure system to the North of the UK.

Below is the GFS ensemble members,

Once again they give the models good support on the path.

Posted

A slight change on the models this morning mainly in the GFS, UKMO and the ECM, at 144 hours the ECM places the ex hurricane slightly more North and closer to Greenland, it then moves across the Northern Atlantic and arrives to the far North of the UK, meanwhile both the UKMO and GFS have the ex hurricane slightly more South at 144 hours, the GFS shows the ex hurricane not entering the Atlantic at all due to high pressure blocking its way.

Above is the latest model predicted paths.

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Interesting charts appearing for the 'Wind' lovers ;)

A few days away just yet but certainly scope for gale force winds for the north and west, perhaps severe gales at times... Welcome Autumn 2012 :p

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