UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Good luck those heading out chasing tomorrow. I think I'll just sit here in Nottingham and hope for something to hit.

Car isn't too good at the moment so I don't want to risk making things worse.

Here's the ESTOFEX forecast which Dazmaster mentioned earlier...

DISCUSSION

... UK, Scotland ...

Behind an E/NE-ward moving occlusion, a maritime air mass overspreads most of UK from SW to NE. With cold mid-level temperatures atop and placed beneath the left exit region of a strong 45 m/s 500 hPa streak, scattered deep convection is anticipated mainly between 9 and 21 UTC. Overlap of roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-25 m/s DLS (increasing from NW to SE), a few well organized multicell events are forecast. Isolated large hail and strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompany strongest convection. Despite a somewhat marginal directional shear component in the lowest 1 to 2 km AGL, forecast 150 m^2/s^2 SRH-1 and any deviant storm motion provide adequate helicity for an isolated tornado event. Storms gradually diminish during the first night hours (also in line with faint warming of the mid-levels).

Map here...

http://www.estofex.o...ormforecast.xml

[Aaron]

Estofex's warning ties in nicely with Netweather!

Every time there's a convective forecast you have a 'funny feeling' that Lincolnshire is the place to be..lol.....Well, the law of averages says that one day you'll be spot on....lol.....whether or not it's tomorrow remains to be seen....if you're out and about chasing tomrrow, good luck matey....(I'm heading out towards Leicester tomorrow, it's as good as spot as any, me thinks)

Lincolnshire is always a good place.

[GadgetWeatherFreak]

A couple of large claps of thunder here

[VillagePlank]

Pub run, is an upgrade.

It seems that the best chances will be midday to 3pm, followed by a lull in potential - which may just kill things off - then a little more from about 5pm to 7pm, then mid-layer air warms up and kills convection - timing almost precisely with dusk. Notably, organisation seems to be there on the MetO, BBC, and GFS - so here's for an MCS; however, if it does happen it looks like an East Kent affair.

Lots of uncertainy regarding timing, intensity, electrification; it could all come down to the places downstream of where the sun came out late morning.

Torrential vertical rain just started here in Rochester - no thunder or lightning observed. This stuff is really cold, too.

EDIT: Stopped just about as soon as it started

Edited June 15, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[VillagePlank]

New thread here. A special one, just for a special day

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73560-uk-convective-discussion-16th-june-2012/#entry2317053

[ZONE 51]

Is it not meant to be for the 15th the new convective thread? Sorry!

Edited June 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[VillagePlank]

Bugger. Quite right.

All changed so that date is correct

[ZONE 51]

Bugger. Quite right.

All changed so that date is correct

I have done that on my storm maps in the past!

Anyway looking very interesting, and of course a concern from what could materialise from the turbulent atmosphere, theres already been thunder and lightning scattered isolated in the south overnight as the unstable air sweeps in, and with the sunshine effect through daytime then we are likely to see some storms.

Edited June 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

New thread here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73560-uk-convective-discussion-15th-june-2012/