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UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted (edited)

Yesterdays Fun.....4 or 5 claps of thunder heard although no lightning spotted. The last and most potential cell in a line approaching from th SW unfortunately discharged itself somewhere over Stourbridge way:-) before it arrived here

Heres a quick time lapse of a cell over the city centre

....Best viewed on You tube

another quick time lapse with cells building over Barr Beacon

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

In case you missed it elsewhere:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #025

ISSUED: 1000UTC THURSDAY 7TH JUNE 2012 (GJ/SM/GB)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTHWEST ENGLAND SOUTHERN ENGLAND NORTHERN IRELAND WALES WEST MIDLANDS NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1200UTC THURSDAY 7TH UNTIL 2359UTC FRIDAY 8TH JUNE 2012

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING UNDER A CYCLONIC JETSREAM

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...GALES...STRONG GUSTS

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND OBSERVATION DATA INDICATIONS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES UNDER A CYCLONIC JETSTREAM, DEEPENING AND MATURING TO ~980MB AS IT LANDFALLS IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. NEAR THE LOW CENTRE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRAP-AROUND OCCLUSION, GALES UP TO 50MPH MEAN WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 70MPH WITH LOCALISED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR; AFFECTING WINDWARD SLOPES AND EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS OF THE WATCH AREAS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRANSITS NORTHWARD. THERE IS A RISK OF DAMAGE TO TREES AND LIGHT STRUCTURES FROM THESE WINDS. AN ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES MOST OF SOUTHERN UK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW, PROVIDING PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS OF 50MM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE TOTALS MAY BE EXCEEDED OWING TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SLOPES AND STEEP CATCHMENTS, WITH WIDESPREAD EXCESS SURFACE WATER EXPECTED GIVEN RECENT SATURATION FROM A SHOWERY REGIME. IN ADDITION, AN UNSTABLE AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS DRAWN UP FROM THE NEAR CONTINENT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME LOCALISED AND COASTAL FLOODING MAY RESULT. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Any likelihood of embedded storms along the cold front?

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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

alll the rain moved on not much wind either? I thought the wind was meant to pick up? don't tell me they bodged this weather forecast up aswell

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

alll the rain moved on not much wind either? I thought the wind was meant to pick up? don't tell me they bodged this weather forecast up aswell

Try being here then .. It's getting rough now. Some trees have been reported down, and some power outages.

Edited by Mapantz
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

This low must really be bombing as the pressure is at 987 mb and dropping very fast! Just sad that there's no lightning with it, although I wouldn't be surprised to see some.

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syncmaster Rookie

syncmaster

Posted
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold blasts, snowy Summer hot sultry thunderstorms
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
Posted (edited)

lightening detected on north wales coast....

south cost near weymouth !!!! nice

Edited by syncmaster
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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

Rain cleared about an hour ago.. it's a bit windy, but not significantly gusting.....yet!

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted

Not raining much here now, not that it has rained much at all today. Still drizzling on and off, but the wind is definitely picking up now. Getting gusts of around 30mph, which is about 10 mph more than we were a hour or two ago..

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

It looks like the second load of rain is setting in here now after a brief respite and is forecast to continue for another 24 hours or so. Already had 45mm, I wonder if we could get 100mm.... Derek on the BBC said a few places could. Wind is picking up nicely too.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

lightening detected on north wales coast....

south cost near weymouth !!!! nice

They might, repeat might, just be sperious detections...checked the radar and visi-sat for around 40 mins ago, nothing convective that stands out at being lightning producing

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syncmaster Rookie

syncmaster

Posted
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold blasts, snowy Summer hot sultry thunderstorms
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
Posted

They might, repeat might, just be sperious detections...checked the radar and visi-sat for around 40 mins ago, nothing convective that stands out at being lightning producing

I think your right, checked back myself and there was nothing to get that exited about apologies to u guys. dohhhhhhhhhhhhh
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I think your right, checked back myself and there was nothing to get that exited about apologies to u guys. dohhhhhhhhhhhhh

Of course, that's not to say that something might spring up tonight...I haven't looked at the hi-res models in any detail but just by looking at the radar down south and the various satellite imagery it's obvious that there's some pretty volatile conditions in the atmosphere

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

Of course, that's not to say that something might spring up tonight...I haven't looked at the hi-res models in any detail but just by looking at the radar down south and the various satellite imagery it's obvious that there's some pretty volatile conditions in the atmosphere

Is nightime the most likely time for things to spring up?

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Erm Guise.......

Anyone noticed the PPN in south Wales and the sw...

How odd.

Its static and just growing....

Checking the latest IR loop ( http://sat24.com/en/gb?ir=true )

It looks like it will shift ENE and is growing..

There is gonna be some major flooding about tomorrow at this rate.

VERY windy outside at the moment.

The PPN is just expanding and can see in the IR that the clouds are growing ( Surely that cant be convective this time of evening? )

post-182-0-54761500-1339103457_thumb.png

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lfcdude Accomplished

lfcdude

Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
Posted

Erm Guise.......

Anyone noticed the PPN in south Wales and the sw...

How odd.

Its static and just growing....

Checking the latest IR loop ( http://sat24.com/en/gb?ir=true )

It looks like it will shift ENE and is growing..

There is gonna be some major flooding about tomorrow at this rate.

VERY windy outside at the moment.

The PPN is just expanding and can see in the IR that the clouds are growing ( Surely that cant be convective this time of evening? )

From twitter Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

Our @bbcpointswest outside broadcast team tell me waves are increasingly overtopping the seafront at Weston-s-Mare. Wild weather there...

and hes saying will be worse in the morning.... can see coastal flooding happening

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Erm Guise.......

Anyone noticed the PPN in south Wales and the sw...

How odd.

Its static and just growing....

Checking the latest IR loop ( http://sat24.com/en/gb?ir=true )

It looks like it will shift ENE and is growing..

There is gonna be some major flooding about tomorrow at this rate.

VERY windy outside at the moment.

The PPN is just expanding and can see in the IR that the clouds are growing ( Surely that cant be convective this time of evening? )

yep, been watching that develop over the last few hours....interesting...

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samadamsuk Aficionado

samadamsuk

Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester
Posted

Hey all -

That PPN over south wales looks suspiciousely like a radar error in amongst the rain band to me - looks like it's definately raining, but the bright core looks to be stuck rigidly in one place

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

Hey all -

That PPN over south wales looks suspiciousely like a radar error in amongst the rain band to me - looks like it's definately raining, but the bright core looks to be stuck rigidly in one place

The bright stuff is right over me and it's definitely lashing it down out there. It's the mountains intensifying the rain as soon as it hits the slopes. 65mm the last 24 hours.

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

The bright stuff is right over me and it's definitely lashing it down out there. It's the mountains intensifying the rain as soon as it hits the slopes. 65mm the last 24 hours.

50.5mm of rain here in the last 24hrs it's very wet indeed!

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted (edited)

any thunder marcus?

Nope nothing!

Edited by Marcus_surfer
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