Weather Tweets

[AWD]

I dont really know which topic to post tweets and other comments made available by professional forecasters and other forecasting sites so I thought a new topic for these kind of comments would be an idea!

Apologies however, if there is another thread better suited to this!

A few tweets from Matt Hugo first:

Latest EC 32 day continues to support other medium range models with a more settled spell of weather mid and late next week on-wards...

...However, the build of pressure looks temporary & the early signs now for the opening week of July are for low pressure to affect the UK

And now Ian Fergusson:

We're expecting some heavy #rainfall during the next few days check for flood alerts and warnings here

Liam Dutton's Tweets:

The weather quieter for most tomorrow, but still a few thundery downpours around

And finally Brian Gaze:

Hope springs eternal! Summer could be on the way back http://t.co/Pe34DY1S

Weather gradually improving for a time

Any more found, please feel free to share!

[AWD]

Not the most popular of topics then! Lol!

Anywho, here are some more just incase anyone is interested!

Matt Hugo says:

If we get to mid-July without a significant change, then the 2nd half of July & Aug are going to have to be stunning to rescue the summer.

Astonishing, but so far this month locally in E Lancs the rainfall total now stands at an incredible 176.4mm...

I'll be blogging about the second half of June and into early July over the next day or so, safe to say summer is unlikely to appear!

A general cyclonic pattern is now forecast to continue throughout the rest of June unfortunately with little signal for sustained settled wx

Week Ahead - Not looking great, but better than of late!. Showery up to Wed, but with some decent dry/bright intervals, wet again by Thu/Fri

And now these from Liam Dutton:

WEEK AHEAD WEATHER: Generally sunshine & showers until Wednesday. Turning wet & windy for most for Thursday/Friday. A bit warmer at 15-21C

WEATHER TREND NEXT 2-3 WEEKS: No signs of lengthy spells (4 days or more) of very warm & sunny weather for the UK. Staying mainly unsettled.

Ian Fergusson tweets:

Quite possible we'll see some heavy downpours now developing into this evening from parts of N Somerset up through Bristol / S Glos area...

Just had a few spots of rain over the Cotswolds.†Plenty more into evening: convergence zone, plus old occlusion re-activating...

This from Brian Gaze:

Mixed #weather week ahead but reasonable at times

Latest #weather forecast for #Wimbledon http://t.co/2IGJZJVe

[ZONE 51]

Great idea and look fwd to reading more!

[AWD]

More Tweets this lovely Sunny Day!!

From Matt Hugo:

the April to June 2012 mean temperature at London Heathrow is the coldest since Apr-June 1996

The 00Z GFS ENS mean continues to show a cyclonic and cool pattern across the UK up to the 4th of July - http://t.co/EyM85swO

I'll take a look at the longer term trends tomorrow in a blog, it may not be want many want to hear/read mind, but what will be, will be...

Details somewhat uncertain, but SW Eng, Wales, Midlands & N Eng could see another 20mm to 30mm of rainfall through Thursday...

Some sig precip signals evident on some of the ensembles for N and W areas of the UK during Thu http://t.co/uRUNZ6TG

From Liam Dutton:

Lots of lightning strikes showing up over Northern Ireland. Any reports or picshbgv321aararvb w21

Hi-res sat pic shows much of UK enjoying sunshine, except N. Ire where a band of cloud is bringing thundery downpours http://t.co/JxY0vF87

Pleasant in the sunshine across much of the UK today. Highest temp at 3pm looks like Wisley, Surrey at 19.3C. Any cloud pics?

This from Ian Fergusson:

for what it's worth, longer-range models suggestive of unsettled conditions continuing into early July.

today, Tues, Weds (any showers aside)....looks decent enough, but the rain returns into Thurs.

[ZONE 51]

http://lance-modis.e...12170.terra.1km

(18th June 2012) Amazing!

[AWD]

Just a quick few from Matt Hugo regarding the ECM 32 dayer input:

Here's my latest blog taking a look at the rest of June and into early July http://t.co/C7uuhZ3M

Mid-June to Mid-July...Thoughts & Analysis http://t.co/3ATvexTx

Deary me, the latest EC 32 day forecast keeps a -ve pressure anomaly over the UK right up to the 15th of July - Full blog by 9am...

the E could fair best later in the wk generally, but still wet & yeah, bar the odd day, like now, June is finished

NW Eng/Lancs: A slow start with a few isolated showers, but soon becoming drier and sunnier as the day progresses. Highs 16C to 19C.

Not the best of chart for the summer solstice - http://t.co/TVQi9kdp

Another breezy day on Fri for the time of year expected - http://t.co/ouE5255p

Clearly the majority of the summer is yet to come, but the outlook isn't good...

The GFS & EC ENS members continue to paint a very poor picture indeed - IMO June is done & dusted with it still looking unsettled early July

shouldn't be bad at all for many today and Wed, it's probably just about worth it uncovering the garden furniture!...

Rain/showers clearing Scot, then mainly dry with bright/sunny spells just a few scattered showers for most. Highs 18C to 21C.

And these two from Ian Fergusson:

W COUNTRY: However, f'cast confidence increasing re plume of heavy, thundery rain spreading N to affect parts of W Country by late Weds eve.

W COUNTRY: A few showers aside into afternoons, many districts dry & fine thro today & Weds; warm in light winds with temps circa 17-20C....

The latest from Brian Gaze:

prospects for Royal Ascot http://t.co/Pe34DY1S

A taste of summer but still a mixed outlook http://t.co/Ke2EhaB1

Now im off to the convection thread for the latest on this potential for Thundery Rain IMBY come Wednesday evening.................

[AWD]

And a few more after a nice pleasent day here in ze West Country!

From Ian Fergusson:

W COUNTRY: Another settled, warm (to 22C) day 2moro of variable cloud & sunshine, but heavy thundery rain eases N overnight into early Thurs

Met Office Yellow Alert of Rain for SW England: Bath & North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Devon, Dorset

Matt Hugo tweets:

Looks very unsettled, potential for a secondary low to cross the NW late Sat/Sun with heavy rain...

Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, S Wales - All at risk of heavy, thundery rain/showers from approx 6pm tmoz evening....Could be lively!

SW Eng needs to watch out for a destabilisation of the atmosphere late Wed - Heavy showers/thunder possible late tmoz

Last 24hrs of good weather ahead #makethemost - Turning very wet and unsettled from the SW by late Wed/early Thu onwards...

NW Eng/Lancs - Get ready for an abrupt change in the weather! - A lot of rain on the way http://t.co/uRUNZ6TG

Latest FAX chart for Wed - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif | Should be a lovely day for many & good opportunity to watch the sun set on the longest day

[AWD]

Some more Tweetss from the Pro's this morning then:

Matt Hugo:

The EC ENS precip total for E Lancs between 0000BST Thu and 2359BST Sun is between 50mm - 60mm

The set of 00Z EC ENS members are absolutely dire in the 264-360hr time frame (1st - 5th July) with every member showing a cyclonic pattern

The Olympic Torch will be passing through Rossendale on Saturday...Unfortunately its looking wet, windy & rather cool

Both GFS and EC ENS continue to support the prediction of predominantly unsettled conditions continuing well into early July...

Latest forecast model data leads me to come up with this quick graphic in terms of rainfall & those at greatest risk... http://t.co/PqtLJqRS

All eyes on SW Eng later as a plume of warmth/moisture destabilizes into some interesting wx! http://t.co/XUsqUhXe http://t.co/55EoxsAh

The clustering scenario is grouped around the +ve NAO regime with main trough just to the W or NW of the UK :-(

Risk of heavy showers/rain and thunder all possible across the SW of the UK by this evening onwards http://t.co/yLCSZiGu

The trough on this chart across the SW - http://t.co/FZ1lTMxz Denotes the area of instability & heavy/thundery downpours this evening...

Parts of N Wales, N Ire, NW Eng & SW Scot now at risk of over 50mm between Thu & Sun, perhaps locally >75mm!

This from Ian Fergusson:

BBQ weather Sunday evening quarter finals of euros. I think unlikely†Prob bit better by end Sunday, but weekend a wet mess

Then there is this conversation on Twitter between Matt Hugo and Ian Fergusson:

Matt - Latest forecast model data leads me to come up with this quick graphic in terms of rainfall & those at greatest risk... http://t.co/PqtLJqRS

Ian - UKMO still goes 4 SW/W Country: see UKPP downscaled for 'worst-case' scenario, cumulative to 21z Thurs: http://t.co/1pI0wWVT

Matt - Yeah, still looks interesting across the SW as the upper trough overruns the plume by this aft/eve...Sure looks wet!

Ian - Yup... showers/rain into W Country thro eve; Bristol by mid-late eve onwards. UKMO note that "...embedded MCS activity implied"

Ian - but some previous runs had spot-totals higher (60mm + nr Bristol), so toning-down but all to play for. Either way: a soaker!

Matt - PS: It'll be interesting to watch it destabilize on radar/sat through the aft I can imagine, probably 'go' all of a sudden

Ian - headache based on new assessment: NAE still activates soonest, with emphasis still to SW; EC deterministic Cambs to Notts, later

Matt - I'm going with Devon, Somerset, Dorset +RA/+SHRA/TS 1800BST onwards...Then moving into S Wales/Bristol areas from 2200BST

Matt - Looking at EC ENS members, 16KM deterministic looks an outlier PPN wise, too intense for Midlands/South-Central...

Ian - so UKMO go for 60% prob to 40mm W Country/S Wales; and 30% prob heaviest rain further E as per EC solution. Tricky...!!

Ian - Chief notes profiles are effectively extensive nimbostratus w embedded convective elements = clearly any TS activity v localised

Ian - modified NAE frame for 00z gives hint of expectations, with focus by then easing N thro Bristol area http://t.co/gnDvz6Nl

and finally from Brian Gaze:

Fine for most of today but heavy rain returning http://t.co/3yJl1Mny

[VillagePlank]

[London/SE]

Certainly looking promising for tomorrow lunchtime-ish.

[AWD]

Some tweets from Matt Hugo this morning:

Latest EC and GFS ENS continue to support an unsettled & cool theme well into early July as indicated in my latest blog issued on Tue.

Yip, you guessed it!...All that heavy rain across NW France is heading into the S of England by noon! http://t.co/tN7glG8B

Latest unmodified NAE continues to signal a deluge for NW Eng overnight into Fri http://t.co/6NKaGRzC

N Eng pressure forecast from the GFS ENS - http://t.co/WC7yI7ig Distinctly low pressure for the time of year!...

Small/highly uncertain risk, but the remnants of current Tropical Storm Chris could reach the UK as a potent low in a week or more...

ECM v GFS - Both still have a trough (unsettled conditions) either over or just to the W of the UK http://t.co/JUJqnauw

12hr precip totals up to 0700BST this morning - http://t.co/29MoNXs7 Soggy in the SW given last nights heavy rain....

UKMO model also highlighting risk of some heavy precip into NW as Fri progresses http://t.co/9HSMTTd0

This 'little chap' from the SW later on Sat needs watching too looks a potent little low with further heavy rain poss - http://t.co/9HSMTTd0

Parts of E and NE France along with Benelux are at risk of some really intense thunderstorms this afternoon onwards...

Quick graphic highlighting the convective risk today - Could interesting this aft across parts of E England!... http://t.co/PI12Id0c

UK map showing forecast rainfall totals over the next 36hrs. Largest accumulations over west Wales and NW England http://t.co/e3TJenNv

The low coming from the SW late on Sat, is potentially going to be being driven along by a 120KT (138mph) jet streak! - http://t.co/OqSp7VjU

The jet stream, in this instance, acts like a vacuum, creating an environment where air can rapidly rise to aid low pressure development...

[AWD]

More tweets with a focul point being the storm potential on Thursday:

From Matt Hugo:

Latest forecast soundings for Thu are impressive, with some significant amounts of CAPE being shown - EG: http://t.co/uLO3XG6q

could be a very interesting day indeed Thursday!... http://t.co/mobyhthw

PS: Fairford sounding for Thu is crazy! - Surface conditions would need looking at to confirm this - http://t.co/owkOFuuZ

Latest radar showing some lively showers across parts of E Anglia, some recent thunderstorms evident http://t.co/QZDWjWGy

Unfortunately low pressure looks set to dominate the end of the week/next wkend, all the 'main' models highlight this http://t.co/FBVaxe3W

Thursday is a day of interest this week as a warm & humid plume of air interacts with increasingly unsettled conditions = thunderstorms

Scot/Ire/N Eng: Fine, settled Mon, increasingly drizzly/low cloud/damp late Tue into Wed with some heavy/thundery showers possible Thu.

An interesting week ahead, definitely a week of 2 halves, best weather on Mon/Tue warming up nicely as well.

This from Ian Fergusson:

models hint at potential for less cyclonic look by the weekend after for British GP, but much could change, obviously!!

W COUNTRY, OUTLOOK cont'd: unsettled again for next weekend w rain/showers at times; hints of somewhat less unsettled conditions early July

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK, Cont'd: Cloudier regime w some rain persists Tues-Weds, but where any breaks occur in cloud cover, feeling decidedly warm

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK: Warmer week ahead (17-21C) & humid; dry & settled Mon; cloudier Tues w rain at times; more showery/thundery by Thurs-Fri

W COUNTRY: Progressively drying-up & brightening-up thro today; looks much more pleasant for afternoon as winds ease; sunny spells & 17-20C

This from BBC Weather:

After deluge of past few days, we're in for a drier and warmer spell of weather coming up. Rain easing this morning. Sarah KL

From Brian Gaze:

Latest 16 day #weather forecast for Wimbledon. http://t.co/2IGJZJVe

[ZONE 51]

Thanks AWD, going to be exciting reading about the storm risk this week, look fwd to reading them when they are posted, whenever you are able to post them.

[AWD]

Some more tweets, most noticeably about the potential for storms on Thursday:

From Ian Fergusson:

as Ops Centre attest, slower frontal progression wld prove a different matter altogether....

They note UKMO-GM is faster solution re cold front progress albeit profiles suggest heavy ppn possible: surface heating critical

interestingly, new UKMO analysis for Thurs notes their GM isn't keen on much thundery activation of plume; quote "low risk

Quite a few site specific models don't seem too keen either. 'Twill be interesting...

This from Liam Dutton:

So humidity rising from tomorrow onwards making for some muggy days to come until it potentially goes bang with thunderstorms on Thursday

Just had a look at the thunderstorm potential for Thursday. Based on latest info central and eastern parts of England most at risk.

Tweets from Matt Hugo:

frontal speed. Quicker & out goes the TS risk, slower & fun n games!

Downside of rising temps & a more humid air mass, is a lot more cloud with some rain/drizzle & extensive mist/hill fog through Tue for many

More persistent frontal rain on Thu across Scot/Ire could produce over 20-30mm of rain - Heavy, thundery downpours across Eng/Wales possible

This evenings UKMO 72hr chart continues to highlight a very 'active' day on Thu http://t.co/lUIw7tLS

GFS v ENS continue to be in agreement regarding the broader pattern and that remains a cyclonic one for the UK - http://t.co/jTkep112

[AWD]

Some more tweets this sticky, muggy evening.

From Ian Fergusson: ( RickyWilliams28 is me by the way )

RW - Brave call on your PW forecast, going for Thundery weather Thurs AM, personally I dont see it, but your the pro!

Ian - ah, was v circumspect! Heavy showers, chance of thunder, but 'chance' key word! UKMO models for early Thurs fairly keen..

Ian - but temporary chance only, restricted to early-ish Thurs AM. Most active zone looks Glos northwards at that stage.

RW - Hirlam one of those models then? Others give main threat North Midlands, Yorkshire etc. Difficult to forecast ultimately.

Ian - no, NAE (modified). We'll see what next runs & 4km models make of it. Main focus further N, as you note anyway...

and more from Ian throughout the day:

Weds morning there will be cloudy, but am hopeful of sunnier, warm conditions developing steadily into afternoon.

Looking really grim in SW Eng & SW Wales with cloudy, misty, drizzly conditions right now... making steady progress NE'ward"

This from Matt Hugo:

Decent forecast sounding for mid-Wales... http://t.co/lgjf2g3D

Trough across England & Wales tmoz may be a focal point for a few afternoon storms http://t.co/FZ1lTMxz

[Chris K]

I do find it interesting eavesdropping on Ian's tweets. He's usually on the mark. He also explains what's happened if a weather forecast didn't play out as presented, rather than brush it under the carpet.

[AWD]

One more from Ian, the UKMO - UK4 chart ( precipitable water forecast for 03z Thurs )

http://t.co/806YnMRR

RW - Thanks for that. Even at this short range, I see many variations in model output to be decidely wary of pinpointing locations

Ian - and that's precisely the reason why UKMO Ops Centre are holding fire on any warnings for Thurs re England-Wales.

here's how the modified NAE 12z run starts to activate things as of 06z Thurs (new run awaited): http://t.co/UsxLLpr3

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo

No changes overnight in the GFS and EC ENS with all continuing to signal the unsettled weather continuing well into early July...

Latest EC 32 day signalling perhaps a more settled spell of weather now around mid-July, but it isn't sustained, better than nothing mind!

https://twitter.com/#!/matthugo81

[AWD]

Some more tweets this humid evening:

From Ian Fergusson:

We could do with a proper thunderstorm in Taunton any chance of one??†Chance, but most thundery activity will be to W - N of us

W COUNTRY: Broader signal for heavy showers (poss thundery) across other parts of W Country into daybreak & rush-hour. Dry, warm afternoon..

W COUNTRY: New UKMO model run indicative of slightly stronger signal for heavy, poss thundery downpours into W areas by middle of night on..

This from Matt Hugo:

Quick point, the ECWMF model is such a huge change from the 00Z run, the 12Z run is most likely an outlier - http://t.co/NbV3GREg

All high resolution models now agree on a spell of heavy/very heavy rain across S Scot, and N Eng during Thu afternoon...

Temperatures across Rossendale, Lancs still widely 17C to 19C this evening and the increasing cloud likely to prohibit any fall in temps...

Bit of a random one-off this summer so far but a particularly uncomfortable night for sleeping as temps stay in the mid teens for many areas

The ECWMF ensembles signal little risk of such extensive high pressure next week, a more unsettled theme is likely at the moment...

And this from Liam Dutton:

Looks pretty lively around rush hour tomorrow eve for Scotland and N'ern England! http://t.co/iJ1NF2Hx

The atmosphere is set to go bang for some places in the next 24 hours.

[Owen]

What would be useful is a list of weather people to follow on Twitter.

@RyanMaue

@stormbell

@danholley_

@canadogreg

@CloudAppSoc

and of course the legend that is @fredtalbotitv.

Not forgetting @Netweather

Any recommendations??

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo

Latest ECMWF 32 day forecast continuing to signal a potential pattern change mid-July towards something more settled... ‪

Don't believe it just yet but the ECWMF is showing the 'potential' by next weekend - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161. … - A lot of uncertainty remains...

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo

No good news about the week ahead as yet another low brings an unsettled wk with rain, showers & no doubt further thunderstorms

Only saving grace is temps look to be near avg so feeling relatively warm especially on days with a mixture of sunshine & showers etc.

if we get to mid-July without anything then it may be time to worry!...who knows August could be the warmest in yrs, it's poss

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

[AWD]

Some more tweets on a wet and miserable day here in Bristol.

From Matt Hugo firstly:

Firstly a small convo between Matt & Derek about the coming winter ( yes, already Lol ) & the rest of Summer!

Derek - The UK is stuck in the middle of a (trough) with high pressure either side. Is there a name for this? Upside down omega

Matt - NB: What is interesting is that EC seasonal model in Mar/Apr had this signal for higher pressure to the W/NW this

Derek - hmmm. What is the EC seasonal saying for autumn/winter?

Matt - Shows a blocked pattern after a wet Autumn, particularly Oct but the monthly update is due by the 8th, I'll comment then

Derek - blocked with high pressure over us?

Matt - Yeah, 500mb height anoms show more ridging over the uk back end of the year, lower anoms to the SW. Anyone's guess mind.

Derek - sunshine and downpours! Where is the Azores high pressure when you need it?!

Matt - On a seriously long and extended holiday in the opposite direction to the UK!...

Derek - unsettled patterns like this, once set by mid July, can continue for the rest of the summer too

Matt - . I look forward to looking at the rest of July tmoz, but as you say this could go on for a while!...we can only hope

Derek - I bet you're hoping the jet stays south of us this winter!!

Matt - Aye exactly hope it does then at least it'll probably be drier than avg! We are screwed if it's a wet n windy one!

More genereal tweets from Matt Hugo:

Full blog on the rest of July coming tmoz...but ECM and GFS ENS in broad agreement with still little sign for a noteworthy pattern change.

Don't dare say this but there is a realistic chance that the predominantly cyclonic/unsettled weather pattern will persist until mid-July!

The following from Brian Gaze:

June rainfall down 70% on the average for the north west Highlands, what are the chances of it continuing this summer? Not much sign of a pattern change just yet, so why not...

Latest #weather forecast for #Silverstone Grand Prix http://t.co/8RROW2FX

The land of eternal October. Latest #weather prospects. http://t.co/Pe34DY1S

Liam Dutton says this:

Just looked at the weather for this week... Low pressure parks itself over us and spins around with showers or longer spells of rain.

Normally at this time of year the jet stream should sit to the NW of the UK taking the unsettled weather to Iceland & Scandinavia.

And finally for now, from Ian Fergusson:

is going rain in silverstone the whole weekend?†Detail genuinely impossible currently. Any f'cast giving it is foolhardy...!!

We've yet to see any final data here for W Country but variably frm 2nd-1st wettest based on amateur recorders at least

Met Office warning for heavy/thundery showers on Thursday for SW England http://t.co/cR2XqE88

If camping in Woodlands over #F1 weekend here is Wet Weather plan, keep eye on this through the week! http://t.co/hOHYTtyv

UKMO rainfall accumulation model, Thurs-Fri combined (in mm): soggy start to event v likely. http://t.co/EKEDSLrt

[ZONE 51]

Just picked out these bits here.

I bet you're hoping the jet stays south of us this winter!!

So it's half way there then..to a spanish winter holiday?, cold winter again then, all this related to low solar activity i have read.

Normally at this time of year the jet stream should sit to the NW of the UK taking the unsettled weather to Iceland & Scandinavia.

So what weather do they have instead now then?

---------------

I had read a book about the predicted ice age, it said summers getting colder, winters getting colder..

Does that include warm air we had in Feb!

[AWD]

More tweets on yet again another drizzle miserable morning:

From Matt Hugo:

Here's my latest blog taking a look at July 12 with thoughts and information http://t.co/bdYLPsjy

July 12...What's To Be Expected?... http://t.co/ShZm7odh

This from Ian Fergusson:

FAIRFORD #RIAT: Sat-Sun sees some bright, dry interludes w omnipresent threat of heavy showers, poss thundery. Generally light winds; 17-20C

F1 @SILVERSTONEUK Distribution of heavier showers uncertain but f'cast profiles indicate temp only in high teens needed 2 generate them #F1

F1 @SILVERSTONEUK Contd: Showers more widespread in afternoons Sat-Sun; slow-moving, heavy & poss thundery in places. A wet-dry lottery

F1 @SILVERSTONEUK: Showery set-up Fri-Sun, albeit w some dry & bright phases likely each day in which fairly warm (18-20C); light winds #F1

W COUNTRY: Frequent outbreaks of rain for many AM, turning heavier frm SW into midday & afternoon. Extensive cloud; hill fog. 15-17C.

W COUNTRY, WEDS: Some showery rain AM; many districts improve PM: broadly drier with brighter spells; a few showers. A bit warmer, 17-20C.

[AWD]

Some tweets now focusing on both the severe rainfall expected over some parts during the next 24 hours and both Silverstone and Fairford.

From Ian Fergusson:

here's how it shapes up into middle of day http://t.co/KlSLTtyo

#F1 #SILVERSTONE FRI: Met Office has now upgraded to Amber Warning for tomorrow's heavy rain affecting

Fans camping at Woodlands @SilverstoneUK must read the following http://ow.ly/c0vDm as we expect disruptive rainfall

Here's how modified NAE shapes-up for 12z Friday. Could still be wet early afternoon at #Silverstone http://t.co/ry89Bipl

#F1 #SILVERSTONE: FRI Strong forecast signal now for threat of heavy, disruptive rain through morning. Clearance may be slow (noon or later)

FAIRFORD #RIAT SAT-SUN: Bright/sunny spells & a few showers Sat; 21-23C; threat of heavier showers PM Sun, but hit-miss fortunes; 17-20C

FAIRFORD #RIAT: FRI Rain possible early AM but distribution uncertain; brighter later, showers possible PM but warm in any sunny phases; 22C

#F1 #SILVERSTONE SUN: Higher threat of slow-moving showers (poss heavy/thundery) versus Sat; especially into afternoon. Bit of a lottery!

#F1 #SILVERSTONE SAT: Dry AM likely. Sunny spells PM; a few showers possible but local distribution unknown until the day; 25% prob; 18-21C

#F1 #SILVERSTONE FRI cont'd: Met Office leans towards heaviest AM rain to N of circuit but this uncertain. Turning drier, brighter later.

#F1 #SILVERSTONE FRI: Outbreaks of rain into early hrs, expected to turn heavy into daybreak but exact location of disruptive rain uncertain

#F1 #SILVERSTONE: Generally a lot of dry weather today & warm (22-24C) w variable cloud; showers possible this afternoon, low risk thundery.

The following from Paul Hudson:

Latest USA model favours earlier ECMWF model: more of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire at risk of big rainfall totals. Blog http://t.co/Dnvc4fHp

This from Brian Gaze:

Latest #weather forecast for T in the park http://t.co/pSjiw31b

Latest #weather for Silverstone. http://t.co/8RROW2FX

And finally, we hear from Matt Hugo:

Another high res model highlighting N Midlands taking the brunt tmoz http://t.co/x30iPuAN

UKMO MESO model at midday tmoz...look out Midlands and S areas of N England etc... http://t.co/h5VKlXqC

Definite split in the 8KM models, left image nested in ECM, right nested in NCEP...Clearly NCEP further N http://t.co/H0tjyM3G