Weather Tweets

[AWD]

Some more tweets for you all today:

From Met Office:

Southern UK not escaping the deluges today. Heavy rain developing in some southern counties. 14mm at Boscombe Down in last hour.

Yellow and amber warning areas for heavy rain today have just been updated: http://t.co/VisvffmI

From Ian Fergusson:

Portishead/Bristol area always seems to miss most of any adverse weather. Not complaining but any scientific reason for this, numerous ones too complex to explain on Twitter! But turning a good deal wetter now into rest of day for Bristol...

Here we are, folks: “@AIRTATTOO: #RIAT WEATHER FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE MET OFFICE http://t.co/6ZmwcsfU

threat of v wet conditions in Exmouth tonight into Sat

FAIRFORD #RIAT UPDATE: Latest UKMO f'cast enhances the threat of rain/showers spreading frm SW throughout Saturday; some heavy at times.

#F1 #SILVERSTONE UPDATE: Drier phase expected around noon but heavy showery rain likely again into early afternoon could well affect FP2

#F1 #SILVERSTONE NOWCAST: Drier phase for a while but further rain arriving frm SE into FP1. Conditions hopefully improved by FP2

#F1 #SILVERSTONE Latest f'cast places threat of showers into quali at 50-60%; wonder which teams will make use of any wet set-up runs 2day..

FAIRFORD #RIAT: Bright/sunny spells & threat of showers (some heavy) characterises the weekend. Winds light, at least away frm shower cells.

#F1 #SILVERSTONE: Showers on Sat, if any over circuit, could deliver 15-25mm rain per hour; shower threat enhanced for race window on Sunday

FAIRFORD #RIAT: Heavy rain remains to N currently, but some showery outbreaks are likely today, coupled to brighter spells this afternoon.

#F1 #SILVERSTONE @JennieGow Heavy rain easing away thro morning; gradual improvements, as per last f'cast. Any showers Sat cld be heavy.

This from Matt Hugo:

With low pressure remaining influential up to mid-July at least, further heavy rainfall events in the coming days/weeks is possible...

Rain should become more showery across Lancs and Yorkshire through the afternoon, worst of the heaviest rain now easing away...

Precip total so far here in Rossendale, E Lancs is 24.0mm - Total so far this month already 72.8mm

[AWD]

On a thoroughly miserable evening here, some more tweets:

From the Met Office:

RED warning issued for parts of Devon & Cornwall for heavy rain valid from midnight. Up to 100mm rain possible: http://t.co/K3zXJ5cY

From Ian Fergusson:

#F1 #SILVERSTONE #BRITISHGP Met Office Yellow Warning for heavy, slow-moving showers is now in force for both Saturday and Sunday.

W COUNTRY: Amber alert 4 heavy rain in force for much of Somerset, Wilts & N Dorset. Please keep abreast of flood warnings via http://twitter.com/#!/EnvAgencySW

This from Paul Hudson:

Highest rainfall figures today from @EnvAgencyYNE Holme 61mm, Langsett 60mm, Marsden 55mm, Honley 54mm, Filey 44, Eccup (North Leeds) 37mm

The following from Matt Hugo:

Here's the NAE precip totals clearly this persistent zone of rain affecting the SW stands out well... http://t.co/SkOM7MIQ

Quick bit of analysis to highlight a couple of features next week. The changeable weather continues... http://t.co/wfosmkOT

Approx 25 ECMWF members are clustered around a particularly deep/unseasonal low for next weekend...Details clearly uncertain at this stage.

Got to 'love' the rediculous GFS model at times...Anyone for a slight frost next Wed night? http://t.co/u71Q4tdW

It is worth to highlight that despite some localised flooding/sig precip totals todays rain will not 'match' that of the 22nd June in the NW

With low pressure remaining influential up to mid-July at least, further heavy rainfall events in the coming days/weeks is possible...

[AWD]

Will it ever improve, lets see what twitter thinks!

From Matt Hugo:

Around 400j/kg to 600j/kg of CAPE is evident across N Eng this afternoon with cloud tops potentially up to 26,000ft = localised downpours

GFS v ECM anom chart continues to highlight the broader pattern - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW … | Zonal and unsettled, yes zonal in July!

It's getting that way!...Always August, but bulk of this summer looks 'dead and buried' really.

21st July GFS ensemble mean - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m14. … | A broader pattern which wouldn't look out of place in October...

Unfortunately the 00Z GFS ENS continues to re-iterate the signal for low pressure to dominate for quite a while yet! - http://t.co/xzv4WQAT

Ironically, the cool spell mid-week is due to some long awaited high pressure trying to push in from the W, as low pressure remains to the E

Overnight 120hr chart from the UKMO places emphasis on a particularly cool mid-week http://t.co/oifdtFLM

Not to be taken too literally at this stage, but this chart gives an idea of expected max temps by mid-week http://t.co/2l3EMxZB ...12C to 16C across the N and W, around 14C to 18C further S and E, given or take a degree or two...Around 3C to 5C below climate averages.

we are certainly seeing some synoptics which if were evident in winter would be pretty 'special' to say the least

High confidence now for salt to be firmly rubbed into the wound, with a N or NW'ly wind developing this week with temps below/well below avg

Still some heavy rain across the SW, but high reso models signalling that the worst may be over with improving conditions by noon

The following from Brian Gaze:

#TinthePark‬ ‪#weather‬ forecast updated. http://t.co/pSjiw31b

Severe ‪#weather‬ today. Time to abandon the 'staycation'? Latest ‪#weather‬ Buzz. http://t.co/Pe34DY1S

LAtest ‪#Silverstone‬ ‪#weather‬ prospects. http://t.co/8RROW2FX

Latest ‪#Wimbledon‬ ‪#weather‬. Good luck to Murray tomorrow! http://t.co/2IGJZJVe

Ian Fergusson says this:

#F1‬ ‪#SILVERSTONE‬ NOWCAST: Circuit due for a thorough soaking from south shortly. Heavy rain rates based on current radar expectation.

#F1‬ ‪#SILVERSTONE‬ NOWCAST: Heavy showers approaching Buckingham frm S look set for circuit; arriving either by end FP3 or shortly afterwards

FAIRFORD ‪#RIAT‬ NOWCAST: Looks all ok on rainfall radar for time being; however, showery rain frm SW tending to become more likely later.

#F1‬ ‪#SILVERSTONE‬ RACE: Forecast signal unchanged for bright spells & chance of showers, but fighting chance of dry race; 40% chance showers

FAIRFORD ‪#RIAT‬ SAT: Showers/showery rain tending to increase in scope through the day, heavy at times. Sunday looking better & prob brighter

#F1‬ ‪#SILVERSTONE‬ SAT: Increasing chance of showers/showery rain into midday onwards. Variable cloud, often extensive. More rain overnight.

Outlook is for notably cool & periodically showery conditions all next week; no sign of any prolonged improvement over at least next 10 days

UKMO even mentions wintry showers on N'ern hills over 800m...welcome to July 2012

W COUNTRY: Rain, heavy at times, set to remain across much of region all day; northern extent unclear. Serious flooding risk, esp Somerset.

From Paul Hudson:

Holiday? Jet stream next couple of weeks means parts of France will be unsettled at times too. Want guaranteed sunny weather? Head to Spain

Looks like we could be stuck with this unsettled weather pattern for much of the rest of July.

[AWD]

Some more, rather gloomy tweets this morning:

From Ian Fergusson:

#F1‬ ‪#SILVERSTONE‬ Met Office forecast peaks shower threat after race finish (3-5pm), so at least there's a fighting chance for a dry race!!

#SILVERSTONE‬: NB: Any showers today will arrive from the NNE/NE into circuit (Copse, Becketts etc), NOT from the south as seen yesterday.

#SILVERSTONE‬ MetO f'cast 1pm: triangles indicative of shower potential (but locations will vary!) & bright spells http://t.co/FS55XYfI

#SILVERSTONE‬: Shower potential won't be evident until race start (localised effects important, eg convergence): a set-up lottery for teams.

#F1‬ ‪#SILVERSTONE‬: Good deal of dry weather w brighter spells developing, but risk of heavy showers increases into race, especially later...

#F1‬ ‪#SILVERSTONE‬ CONT'D: Latest Met Office f'cast indicates a 35% chance showers by race start, rising steadily to 60% into mid-afternoon.

FAIRFORD ‪#RIAT‬ A much better day generally of sunny spells; risk of showers increases into afternoon (some heavy), but v hit or miss.

And this from Matt Hugo:

Using the 00Z GFS ensemble mean chart to highlight next weekend - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m7.g … - Another sig low pressure is forecast...

All forecast models signal another active low pressure moving into the UK off the Atlantic to end the coming week - Persistent possible.

Further large precipitation totals/events are possible within the coming week...Initially from heavy/perhaps thundery showers next few days

Aug/Sept can be very nice, but for most people I think by that time, it's all a bit too late etc

Week ahead not looking pretty and essentially another week of July will pass us by without any summer-like weather at all..

Another day of showers or longer spells of rain across many parts of the UK, especially across the N and E however...

[AWD]

Some tweets from Matt Hugo this morning

After an active/quick start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season, things are now distinctly 'quiet' and look set to stay that way for some time.

This mornings 84hr FAX chart really does highlight the ridiculousness of this summer to date - http://t.co/ouE5255p

Anyone for a fresh or strong west or north-westerly over the wkend? - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441. … - Not the best of mid-summer charts from the UKMO

Given broader deterministic/ensemble charts this seems an unlikely outcome for the middle of next wk - http://t.co/SlMw1YTw

Overnight minimum temperatures from Tue night in particular are likely to drop into single figures for inland areas

What a mess for Tue into Wed - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif - The developing low over N Eng needs watching for producing further heavy rain...

Take with a huge handful of salt for now, but this is what we 'should' be getting at this time of year http://t.co/Ud0YLAAD

Still EC 32 day has hinted at a potential improvement late month, so who knows, this could be early signs...

Still there on the 00Z run, just - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m15. … - clearly though N and W areas remain unsettled.

Perhaps signs for the Azores high ridging into the S late month - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m16. … - far away

There are some early, tentative signs for pressure to rise from the S or SW in association with the Azores high beyond the 23rd.

Cool and showery for many today, but with longer spells of rain for S Scot & parts of N Eng - Highs 16C to 19C

[AWD]

Some more Tweets this evening:

From Ian Fergusson:

Oh Dear! GFS going for a very serious rainfall again across England on Friday; http://t.co/AmsBO58c

From Matt Hugo:

Tmean temp for Birmingham from last EC 32 update - http://t.co/V3PEWa8B | Doesn't look very appealing...

Could be really grim across S and E Scot tmoz. Persistent rain and temps around 12C or 13C! - Rain then continuing overnight into Wed! :-/

Agreed, signs for the Azores high to ridge NE into S areas of Eng/Wales long term, but nothing more

In agreement...A complete pattern change looks highly unlikely, despite perhaps temporary ridging at times.

Even if August is crackin' flags, it's all a bit too late IMO, but I think most would take anything right now :-)

It was unfortunately an outlier against the EC ENS mean from 00Z, looks too much ridging again 12Z

Friday's problems comes about from the highlighted low in the Atlantic - The jet stream once again playing a part... http://t.co/MvYSlwf6

You'll have no doubt seen all the UKMO warnings by now anyway, but the following area could be rather 'lively' tmoz http://t.co/taSEDQSC

Going off the 00Z EC ENS just 18 members support a higher pressure evolution beyond the 22nd of July...So you can see, odds are against ATM.

Potential improvement across more S areas of the UK, but generally the majority (3 out of 4 weeks) of July look poor...

12Z GFS ENS continues the theme http://t.co/vnExskPi

Still some signs that the Azores high may have more of an influence across the S of the UK late July, but far from a pattern change

Edited July 9, 2012 by Active Weather Dude