Worst April Through June Since?

[AderynCoch]

Just really depressing. I would say this is the worst June in recent times here. What angers me most is how its pretty much just Britain suffering. Arguably yes, parts of France are also pretty wet but at least warmer! Upper temperatures are warmer in Greenland!!! Thats just plain wrong imo! It really does feel we are being punished for that hot spell in late May. 1 Weeks nice weather for many weeks of crap weather.

No signs of this going away. Its the theme of the last 5 summers all over again and if anything, more like 2007/2008 than the last two which were drier imo. Utterly depressing. The last part of June is looking like a write off probably. Good chance of the forecasts which went for improvements in June already being pretty wrong.

So just Britain suffering whilst the rest of the Northern Hemisphere enjoys its summer. This really is the equivalent of the Polar Vortex but over Britain. Of course, Summer will arrive in September. Pathetic.

This a million times over. My frustration encapsulated perfectly in written form.

Of course it would be absurd to believe that the weather has a conscious mind and deliberately punishes us mere mortals, but it certainly feels that way sometimes!

[Milhouse]

The one positive i can take is that although i crave warmth at all times i do believe that what happens in July can make or break a summer. I guess thats because its when the summer warmth reaches its peak so to miss out on that would be even more disappointing.

Its not July yet and, as several summers have shown, it can end up being a totally different month to June.

[Eugene]

To me mid July to mid August is the peak of warmth in the UK, just look at the highest temps ever recorded in the UK, most during the first half of August.

[Milhouse]

To me mid July to mid August is the peak of warmth in the UK, just look at the highest temps ever recorded in the UK, most during the first half of August.

July is on average just a bit warmer than August even though August holds the record for the hottest day, and the second hottest. I remember compiling a spreadsheet of my local weather stations temperatures for the last 20 years and late July came out warmest with several days having an average max of 22c.

[conor123]

Managed a whole 30 seconds of sunshine here after the dreary statrocumulus weve had all day started to break only for after those 30 seconds the thick high cloud from the south to obscure the sun again :lol:

[IanR]

Cant still believe I have to wear full length gloves for cycling in June, they are normaly put away in April and only see the light of day again in early October, But this year its been every time I go out on the bike and this has been going on for two months apart from that week in May otherwise it feels like frostbite in your hands, I am sure other cyclist will agree(bottsford) .

The summers are getting cooler , I have been around 40 years and have seen a few, the last 5 seem the coolest i can remember , this year is even worse, and to rub it in the global warmists will rub facts in your face such as ' 2011 was the second warmest on record in the uk'

so what? not the summer

[laserguy]

The summers are getting cooler , I have been around 40 years and have seen a few, the last 5 seem the coolest i can remember , this year is even worse, and to rub it in the global warmists will rub facts in your face such as ' 2011 was the second warmest on record in the uk'

That bunch are a right laff,aren't they? We could be in scenes reminiscent of the last ice age and they'd still be walking around going "well yah statistically it's warmer now than it was in 1995" blah blah etc.

[Methuselah]

That bunch are a right laff,aren't they? We could be in scenes reminiscent of the last ice age and they'd still be walking around going "well yah statistically it's warmer now than it was in 1995" blah blah etc.

[Bobby]

Managed a whole 30 seconds of sunshine here after the dreary statrocumulus weve had all day started to break only for after those 30 seconds the thick high cloud from the south to obscure the sun again

Lol, same here. Now it's...raining, again.

[damianslaw]

To me mid July to mid August is the peak of warmth in the UK, just look at the highest temps ever recorded in the UK, most during the first half of August.

Quite true, whilst mid July-mid August on average is the warmest period of the year, for the NW it is often unsettled, our most settled summer conditions tend to occur before the summer solstice.

[dannyd]

Really not been great has it. The current CET average maximum is a paltry 15.8 and I suspect Hadley have got that too high again. At least this week looks a bit warmer, for those of us in the south at least.

[ZONE 51]

We got the needed rainfall, and for many areas to much fell over a short period, this has stopped the drought in it's tracks from becoming worse, although not totally cured i have read, as not all areas in drought got all the rain needed.

In my area of the SE it has been a wet month so far, and rather cool at times but generally mild or very mild daytime the minimums, so not a cold month here, it could be worse, with a full cloudy sky in a northeast flow, that can make it cold, it's been quite sunny, although not as much as we should have, generally i can't moan to much as it's not been that bad for sunshine and warm days.

Edited June 18, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

What's the outlook inside the Met Office?

How are the professional weather forecasters coping with this summer's incessant rain – and when will they be able to predict some sun?

Professor Brian Golding sometimes lies awake at night listening to the rain. Or the hail. Or the wind. “The volcanic ash cloud was the worst – there were nights I couldn’t sleep,†he admits. “When you’re on the line like that, it’s high-pressured. You don’t want to get it wrong, but often you just can’t see what’s coming.â€

If Prof Golding doesn’t know when extreme weather is coming, there’s no hope for the rest of us. The deputy director of weather science at the Met Office, he has been at the forefront of meteorological research for 40 years. Along with his team of 200 boffins, he spends his days collating information from millions of points across the globe and feeding it into the Met Office’s “supercomputersâ€, which use equations to forecast the weather at a rate of 125 trillion calculations a second. “It’s no more complicated than A-level physics,†Prof Golding explains. “But it’s very exciting. When I joined the Met Office in 1973, a one-day forecast was frequently wrong; now we can see five days ahead. Of course we don’t always get it right, but we can predict tomorrow’s temperature correctly 90 per cent of the time.â€

As a nation of weather-obsessives, we put a lot of faith in the Met Office – especially when the weather isn’t doing what it’s supposed to. The first half of June has been one of the wettest since records began, with 60 per cent less sunshine than normal and temperatures down 10C. Hosepipe bans have been lifted and headlines are warning of “50-year Atlantic storms†and “three months’ rain†this weekend. So as Britain is battered by unseasonable weather, can the experts explain, once and for all, what on earth is going on?

The short answer is no. In scientific terms, I learn, we are currently under a jet stream, a channel of fast-moving wind that lowers air pressure and brings unsettled weather. Normally positioned north-west of Scotland, the stream has become lodged six miles above southern England, bringing wet and windy conditions for the next fortnight. But that’s not the whole story. Is the weather more unstable than it used to be, or do we have higher expectations of accuracy from our forecasters?

“People now take for granted things that surprised them a decade ago. We are an island nation, which makes forecasting difficult,†says Prof Golding. “The UK’s atmosphere can be really awkward, bringing thunderstorms and snowstorms in unexpected places.â€

At the Met Office’s headquarters, a sprawling modern £80 million complex in Exeter, the 1,200 staff seem curiously unconcerned by the rain coursing down outside. It is 2pm on Thursday and time for the bi-weekly “street briefingâ€, a presentation that keeps employees up to date with what’s happening in the skies. “Last weekend: Wet. A lot,†reads one slide. “This weekend: Wet. A lot,†says another. It’s not the most helpful explanation of our miserable summer. Is this the best they can do? “Like everyone else, what I want to know is which week in August will be sunniest, so I can take my holiday,†says Rob Varley, operations and services director. “But scientifically, it is unimaginable – if not impossible – to distil the behaviour of the atmosphere that far in advance. And for some reason that makes people angry.â€

Our relationship with the Met Office has a chequered history. There was the Great Storm of 1987, which forecaster Michael Fish spectacularly failed to predict; the unfortunate “odds on for a barbeque summer†spiel in 2009, which turned out to be a washout; and 2010’s “mild winterâ€, which saw temperatures plunge below -20C. The 2009 debacle led to the end of “seasonal forecastsâ€, with the Met Office focusing now on more accurate, short-term predictions. The words “barbeque summer†still have bad connotations here, where forecasters are working to rebuild their reputations after widespread condemnation for getting it wrong. Is the phrase banned, I ask? “Not at all,†says Varley, laughing loudly to fill a rather uncomfortable silence. “The communications team is extremely careful about what we say.†His press officer folds her arms and says nothing.

“Seriously though,†says Varley, “we learnt our lesson. The three-month forecast is useless for the public – it’s in the early stages of research, so it’s unreasonable to expect accuracy. The disappointment people felt wasn’t because the forecast was wrong; it was because the weather was bad. There is a link between weather that people don’t want and criticism of what we do.†One man who feels this criticism sorely is Frank Saunders, chief forecaster at the Met Office. Saunders is one of seven meteorologists who sit in the “God†chair, translating charts and graphs into a forecast that is distributed to pilots, road-sweepers, soldiers and television broadcasters. Saunders is responsible for setting the tone of the hourly weather bulletins – he decides whether a cloudy day is described as “sunny spellsâ€, “overcast†or “changeableâ€.

When I meet him, his eyes are darting between six computer screens, each displaying terrifyingly complicated, colourful diagrams and swirling splodges obscuring maps of Britain. “I’m stressed,†he says, wiping his brow. “Here comes the rain! I can’t stand it either.†Saunders has been at the Met Office for 26 years but even he struggles to get it right every time. “I’m assessing the risks and putting the picture into words people can understand.The computer is good but it has limitations – my job is to add human interpretation.†Saunders works in the main operations centre, shared with the aviation team, shipping forecasters, flood forecasters and global guidance unit, which uses the Met Office’s technology to save lives in developing nations by sending SMS alerts before storms and hurricanes. The centre is a noisy hub of activity: more than 100,000 observations (from aircraft, ocean buoys, satellites and wind probes) come in four times a day and staff are constantly answering calls from the public asking whether they should put out their washing.

“Everyone here is passionate about the outdoors,†explains Varley. “I was told on my first day that I would become a 'Met man’ – the kind of person who looks up at the sky the minute they leave a building – and I am. We try not to be too geeky but we do talk about weather a lot.†Varley’s father joined the Met Office in 1950 and left a year after he started work in 1983. “I listened to the shipping forecast in my cradle,†he recalls. Varley has seen a lot of changes. Providing forecasts to the public is just a small part of what the organisation, founded in 1854 by Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy, does. “Wind-speed forecasting for aviation is our biggest sector,†explains Arwel Griffiths, director of business development. “Our services are also used in defence, by oil and gas companies and in retail.†On-site, the Met Office has a training school (complete with forecasting studio) and a phone-in weather centre, dealing with everyone from the groundsman at Old Trafford to charity fundraisers complaining on Twitter about the rain.

But with such a diverse range of services, could the Met Office be losing sight of what the public wants? “We are constantly working to make our forecasts more reliable,†Prof Golding assures me. “We hope to extend our five-day forecast to 10 days in the not-too-distant future.†Does that mean he knows whether we’ll see some sun this summer? He smiles. “Unfortunately, we keep those general predictions to ourselves. When we know they’re robust, then it’s safe to tell people like you.†For now, we’ll have to put up with yet more wind and rain. But as you’re sheltering beneath your umbrella this weekend, spare a thought for the folks at the Met Office.

“It’s a rotten June,†says Varley, “absolutely rotten. Sadly, there’s nothing we can do about it – we hate it just as much as you do. When I hear people grumbling about the weather, I want to shout at them: 'You live in Britain, what on earth did you expect?’â€

http://www.telegraph...Met-Office.html

[Evening thunder]

Not sure how to get hold of this, but I just saw this shocking statstic posted by Brummie Snowman at TWO:

Here's a shocking statistic

Sunshine Jan 1-15: 51.6 hours

Sunshine June 1-15: 33.9 hours

(sunshine hours from Coleshill)

Not sure whether or not you're specifically talking about your locality, but Roger Brugge's website has sunshine stats for various stations across the country:

http://www.met.readi...rugge/CURR.html

A bit late replying, but thanks for those. I was meaning both really as I'd like to be able to look around my location but also the country as a whole. Some of those figures were pretty bad when I glanced the other day though (and still are), especially ones like Bournemouth!

Just really depressing. I would say this is the worst June in recent times here. What angers me most is how its pretty much just Britain suffering. Arguably yes, parts of France are also pretty wet but at least warmer! Upper temperatures are warmer in Greenland!!! Thats just plain wrong imo! It really does feel we are being punished for that hot spell in late May. 1 Weeks nice weather for many weeks of crap weather.

No signs of this going away. Its the theme of the last 5 summers all over again and if anything, more like 2007/2008 than the last two which were drier imo. Utterly depressing. The last part of June is looking like a write off probably. Good chance of the forecasts which went for improvements in June already being pretty wrong.

So just Britain suffering whilst the rest of the Northern Hemisphere enjoys its summer. This really is the equivalent of the Polar Vortex but over Britain. Of course, Summer will arrive in September. Pathetic.

Not just upper temps, I've been looking at the 2 metre temps on some GFS runs recently, and on many days, could you believe it, part of the west coast of Greenland is warmer than us!! (getting into the 20's!!) 18:00-21:00 is the best timeslot for seeing that. 850hpa temps of 10-15C there (even a pocket over 15C on some runs). I wonder if we will even get that for a similar length of time this summer...

I wish Greenland would stop having it's love affair with high pressure.

So today was meant to be quite possibly 'warmest day this June', and definitely of this spell. Nope, not allowed here. Completely cloudy and yet another below-average max. Of course the possible thunderstorms tonight have to downgrade to general rain though!

Yesterday was a lovely day with excellent visibility, (although still couldn't quite reach average temps!) just a shame I was stuck in exams most of the day.

Edited June 20, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Luke McDonnell]

A bit late replying, but thanks for those. I was meaning both really as I'd like to be able to look around my location but also the country as a whole. Some of those figures were pretty bad when I glanced the other day though (and still are), especially ones like Bournemouth!

Not just upper temps, I've been looking at the 2 metre temps on some GFS runs recently, and on many days, could you believe it, part of the west coast of Greenland is warmer than us!! (getting into the 20's!!) 18:00-21:00 is the best timeslot for seeing that. 850hpa temps of 10-15C there (even a pocket over 15C on some runs). I wonder if we will even get that for a similar length of time this summer...

I wish Greenland would stop having it's love affair with high pressure.

So today was meant to be quite possibly 'warmest day this June', and definitely of this spell. Nope, not allowed here. Completely cloudy and yet another below-average max. Of course the possible thunderstorms tonight have to downgrade to general rain though!

Yesterday was a lovely day with excellent visibility, (although still couldn't quite reach average temps!) just a shame I was stuck in exams most of the day.

It seems that a lot of places in the Arctic Circle are warmer than us that the moment - Yellowknife right up in the North of Canada has temps climbing into the mid 20s this week as well - instead of going to Spain to get some sun and warmth why not go to Yellowknife, Arctic Russia or even Greenland LOL!

Just also asking what do you see this June coming out of in terms of the CET is it likely to be the coolest since 1991 or 1987 I think the CET for 1991 was in the 12s so that could be hard to beat - in terms of rainfall will it beat 2007 as that was pretty wet.

Luke

[Thundery wintry showers]

June 1991 was actually colder than June 1987 in the CET series, mainly because of colder nights, but June 1987 was widely the dullest June of the twentieth century. This June is thus highly likely to end up the coldest since 1991. Rainfall wise, probably falling short of 2007, and sunshine wise, possibly up there with June 1987 for cloudiness unless sunshine amounts increase significantly during the last third of the month (which they might well do).

Damianslaw's observations, taking a long-term average context, hold true to a lesser extent over eastern Scotland and north-east England, where Julys and Augusts, while not significantly wetter than Mays and Junes, tend to be cloudier due to enhanced westerlies. In western Scotland, Ireland, Wales and the western side of England, Julys and August tend to be both cloudier and wetter. For the Midlands and Cent E + S + SE England, though, July is on average about as sunny as May or June. If you look at recent 30-year averages you won't see this picture though as the 1980s and 1990s had an unusual number of dry sunny Julys and Augusts and wet cloudy Junes.

[Snowy Easterly]

for those who are down and miserable that the days will be getting shorter from friday don't panic, here is the sunset times for london for the next two weeks and it barely changes, its only from mid july that it starts getting quicker, although most on here probably already knew that,

http://www.weatheron...&R=0&NOREGION=1

Edited June 20, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Evening thunder]

It seems that a lot of places in the Arctic Circle are warmer than us that the moment - Yellowknife right up in the North of Canada has temps climbing into the mid 20s this week as well - instead of going to Spain to get some sun and warmth why not go to Yellowknife, Arctic Russia or even Greenland LOL!

Just also asking what do you see this June coming out of in terms of the CET is it likely to be the coolest since 1991 or 1987 I think the CET for 1991 was in the 12s so that could be hard to beat - in terms of rainfall will it beat 2007 as that was pretty wet.

Luke

Indeed there does seem to be some notable warmth/heat at high latitudes again this year

I'm probably not the best one to ask about the CET, I think the likes of TWS, Weather-history (was Mr Data) etc are far better sources of info on that and historical CET values than me, though looking at the CET thread and at the models I'd guess a finish somewhere in the low 13's. The rest of June overall looks to have a slightly warmer/milder last week than much of the month before that at least, with the usual downward adjustment stopping the finishing CET being too much higher than the current value. But I guess it could be corrected down to the high 12's especially as I hear Philip Eden has the Manley series at 12.2C at the moment.

I think the mean max for the month will come out more below average than the mean min too, also it's certainly very wet though without looking I cannot remember what the rainfall values for months like June 2007 were.

Just a note on my last post, we did actually have a sunny spell allowing the temperature to reach average at least.

Edited June 21, 2012 by Stormmad26

[WeatherGuru2012]

Hey, I am new here

Can I just say, as exceptionally awful this month has been, rainfall wise and low sunshine and temperatures. Its amazing to think, that my area had more days above 20c in March and May! I think we have been once above 20c and that was 2 days ago! It really has been an absolutely exceptional month. A big summer lover and cold winter lover, I do love unusual weather like this. Where the weather has weird phases like certains months having long warms spells than other months, e.g. march 2012. Its weird to think that a number of days in the autumn and last winter had much more warmth than this month. Even Christmas week. Utterly bizarre, but interesting to say the least...

[Bottesford]

Cant still believe I have to wear full length gloves for cycling in June, they are normaly put away in April and only see the light of day again in early October, But this year its been every time I go out on the bike and this has been going on for two months apart from that week in May otherwise it feels like frostbite in your hands, I am sure other cyclist will agree(bottsford) .

No gloves gladly! :lol: They went in early May I think. I only need gloves <5c normally unless its raining then more like <9c.

The jacket however has still been appearing from time to time as mornings are often <12c and often rainy. I'm actually fairly cold tolerant which may surprise y'all - always the last one to need a coat. But I'm also heat tolerant too it's just the heat involves more freedom than cold does.

[95 Degrees]

Nothing particularly weird or unusual about this month here in my opinion, pretty much a repeat of what happened here last June and similar to 2007 as well.

[Village]

Cant still believe I have to wear full length gloves for cycling in June, they are normaly put away in April and only see the light of day again in early October, But this year its been every time I go out on the bike and this has been going on for two months apart from that week in May otherwise it feels like frostbite in your hands, I am sure other cyclist will agree(bottsford) .

The summers are getting cooler , I have been around 40 years and have seen a few, the last 5 seem the coolest i can remember , this year is even worse, and to rub it in the global warmists will rub facts in your face such as ' 2011 was the second warmest on record in the uk'

so what? not the summer

I agree, the global warming lobby are having a laugh. Its definitely cooler now than fifteen years ago.

Dont believe the official CET data either because its been manually adjusted. They take the raw data and then alter temperature sets to allow for the Urban Heat Island effect. In doing so the data can be manipulated. But the adjustment is inverse. Basically the temperatures in London have increased a lot over the past two hundred years, but the warmth is because the city of tarmac, bricks, cement etc is now massively larger today. The adjustment they decide to make to alter the real data is not enough to take account of the increase in buildings....therefore it registers as forever warming.

Edited June 22, 2012 by Village

[Thundery wintry showers]

That last post rather suggests anti-warming confirmation bias. For instance Philip Eden has his own version of the CET series (which he believes to be a more homogeneous continuation of Gordon Manley's original scheme in 1974) and while some monthly values differ by a few tenths of a degree, they show a similar amount of overall warming. There are many near-homogeneous individual records going back to the 1800s, such as the ones at Durham University Observatory and Oxford, which show a similar amount of warming to both versions of the CET series.

Summers have definitely got cooler during 2007-2011 relative to 1989-2006, and this June is looking highly probable to be the coldest since 1991, but the trend in the mean annual temperature remains upward.

[Essan]

Dont believe the official CET data either because its been manually adjusted. They take the raw data and then alter temperature sets to allow for the Urban Heat Island effect. In doing so the data can be manipulated. But the adjustment is inverse. Basically the temperatures in London have increased a lot over the past two hundred years, but the warmth is because the city of tarmac, bricks, cement etc is now massively larger today. The adjustment they decide to make to alter the real data is not enough to take account of the increase in buildings....therefore it registers as forever warming.

Ah, but Pershore, Rothamsted and Stoneyhurst aren't in London - so any UHI affecting them is much less.

But of course the problem is that the rise in average temperatures across the year hasn't been reflected in a proportionate rise in maximum temperatures in summer. And a cloudy summer can easily end up quite warm due to mild nights - yet be remembered as dismal due to lack of sun,

[Lake District Blizzard]

54mm here today already, much more to come, so basically the June average rainfall (60mm) will have fallen in a day.

One of the worst summer months ever

Edited June 22, 2012 by rjd1000