South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 18th 2012>

[Snowangel-MK]

Not bad at all here, Mostly sunny and 21C...

Yep lovely isn't it - wish I didn't have to work this afternoon, I've just been out in the garden and it's warm enough to sit out, oh well

[Steve C]

Just a bit of fair weather cumulus near Chelmsford. It looks like it would be a nice day to be out..

[Snowangel-MK]

First yellow alert of the week for this region……

Issued at - 19 Jun 2012, 11:35

Heavy rain is expected to spread north-eastwards during Thursday across parts of southern England and South Wales, with torrential downpours and thunderstorms possible in places. The public should be aware of large amounts of spray on roads and, in some places, minor flooding.

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex & Wokingham

valid from 0000 Thu 21 Jun to 1200 Thu 21 Jun

[Eskimo]

PLEASE extend East!

[Guest archiesmummy]

PLEASE extend East!

I know! What's a girl gotta do to get a storm round here!

[Steve C]

Here is a link to the BBC weather for East Anglia, from earlier this afternoon - video is on the page. What I like about it is it shows isobaric charts up until the weekend. Much better than the dumbed down national forecasts we get now, in my opinion. Unfortunately there's no mention of thunder here, I don't think, but I'd definitely not rule it out.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2653266

Edited June 19, 2012 by Speed67

[Eskimo]

We could try a human sacrifice.. I can think of one or two possible specimens

The two pillocks running the country right now.

[Steve C]

M

The two pillocks running the country right now.

Maybe if England contrive to lose tonight, there could be a few more...

[Coast]

A WARNING for heavy rain has been issued by the Met Office for later this week, but things should improve for the Isle of Wight Festival.

The yellow 'be aware' warning will be valid from between midnight and noon on Thursday. The Met Office said: "Heavy rain is expected to spread north-eastwards during Thursday across parts of southern England and South Wales, with torrential downpours and thunderstorms possible in places." The Met Office's chief forecaster said: "Some torrential downpours are expected, with the resulting potential for minor surface water flooding, although the location and intensity of the heaviest rainfall is uncertain.

"Around 15-25mm of rain is expected to fall quite widely in a relatively short period of time, with some areas perhaps receiving as much as 40mm." Vectis 4x4 Response group said the Flood Forecasting Centre had said there is a low risk of surface water and riving flooding in parts of central and southern England.

According to the Met Office there will be sunshine and showers at the festival site on Thursday afternoon and temperatures could reach 17C. On Friday temperatures could reach around 15C, with some rain in the afternoon, but drier in the evening. Saturday will be dry during the earlier part of the day, although some rain is forecast in the late afternoon and evening, and temperatures will also reach around 15C.

There will be more rain overnight and into Sunday morning, according to the Met Office.

http://www.iwcp.co.uk/news/news/heavy-rain-warning-44891.aspx

[Methuselah]

The two pillocks running the country right now.

Laurel and Hardy?

[Eskimo]

Laurel and Hardy?

Might as well be!

[Guest archiesmummy]

Just seen from met office that a part of southern Japan has had 405.5mm of rain from that typhoon!

Can you imagine? Now that's a lot of rain :o

[Eskimo]

Just seen from met office that a part of southern Japan has had 405.5mm of rain from that typhoon!

Can you imagine? Now that's a lot of rain

15 inches!?

[Guest archiesmummy]

15 inches!?

I know! I tweeted them back to see if that was right and they said it was!

[john pike]

bit quiet tonight

i reckon everyones been watching england

the charts tonight are confusing

thursday lunchtime onwards will be wet

friday

saturday and sunday keep changing

will update tomorrow

hic

[Steve C]

I know! I tweeted them back to see if that was right and they said it was!

The thing is tropical storms / hurricanes can produce enormous rainfall - far, far worse than anything we get in any part of our country. The main killer in tropical cyclones is rainfall and storm surge, rather than severe winds (admittedly storm surge is mostly caused by severe winds though) I was on holiday in the Cook Islands, a few years ago and I reckon we had at least 6 inches of rain in a day and this was from a marginal tropical storm, with only 40mph or so winds. It definitely ruined the holiday!

Here is a link to a report about a (relatively) recent Atlantic hurricane; although it had massive strength winds, mostly at sea, its deadly effect was the rain; Hurricane Mitch from 1998... Undoubtedly there have been worse tropical systems for rain too...

http://www.ncdc.noaa...itch/mitch.html

Edited June 19, 2012 by Speed67

[Steve C]

bit quiet tonight

i reckon everyones been watching england

the charts tonight are confusing

thursday lunchtime onwards will be wet

friday

saturday and sunday keep changing

will update tomorrow

hic

Agreed. Watching England was exhausting tonight, but ultimately exhilarating!

Edited June 19, 2012 by Speed67

[ZONE 51]

It might have been here, back in 1998…

http://news.bbc.co.u...tech/146120.stm

I heard the government are controlling the weather so it isn’t raining when the Olympics are on... but I can’t remember who told me that

Thanks MK, i remember that, and there on to the same thing(exhaust fumes affecting rainfall)this was more recent, in a newspaper, il search in there online version and post it, it looks like that research is coming back in the spotlight.

Bold bit, can they throw in some night storms..

Edited June 20, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Must say if your not in the yellow warning zone it does not mean that you won't get an isolated thundery storm cell pass over or near you. The warning areas cover where the prolonged and torrential thundery rain-thunderstorms are expected at the time when the warnings where issued, but i expect some electrified cells to develop east of there within the humid and moist plume or import some from France, the isolated cells are a radar n sat watching thing-as these are harder to predict where they might develop, hard to forecast this event, but i can say it is very interesting, it's not often we get such setups, it is an event and the risk of it happening are high, the risk zones could shift, most likely east rather then westwards(just my view i could be wrong), i think the warnings would extend east to cover London and east Sussex by late evening wednesday, and also i think there is a risk of the Meto upgrading to Amber, a concern from this situation is the rainfall, as floods are likely for some from this, the ground after recent flooding is sensitive and would flood very fast. Lightning could be severe to.

Edited June 20, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Snowangel-MK]

squeeze me but what happened to the clear blue sky ? I was planning a few hours R&R in the garden this arvo but it's clouded over a bit while I've been getting my hair done ! Still it's nice and warm and dry so I might have to go for some retail therapy instead

[Snowangel-MK]

I’m assuming I will stay dry here in MK as we are no longer part of Buckinghamshire (but I doubt it some how especially as I just got my hair done and it always rains when I have my hair done )

Issued at - 20 Jun 2012, 10:39

Heavy rain arriving in southwest England on Wednesday evening is expected to spread north eastwards during Thursday morning across parts of England and Wales, with locally torrential downpours. The public should be aware of the risk of surface water flooding and spray on roads.

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Wokingham, Buckinghamshire, Bracknell Forest, Windsor and Maidenhead & Slough

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

Hertfordshire

valid from 2100 Wed 20 Jun to 1000 Thu 21 Jun

[Bogman]

And what happened to the "best day" of the week, today then?

Wall to wall blue sky's, low to mid 20's. Has it telephone box.

[Will Padz]

24.3c here.....feels lovely and summery...

[abruzzi spur]

Was beautiful here at 6am. Steadily clouded over from about 10am and now about 75% cloud cover. Still warm-ish though and hoping this evening's BBQ can go ahead in the dry as it looks like it could be the last chance for a while....

AS

Edit - since posting the above the cloud has largely burnt away and it's warmed up quite a bit. Maybe it was something I said!

Edited June 20, 2012 by abruzzi spur

[Keraunic]

What are the chances of East Anglia getting some Lightning? I'm afraid I still don't really understand charts and the percentage has gone down from 61% this morning to 51% now (for tomorrow)