Greenland - What Do We Know, What Is The Long Term Future And Is There Any Evidence Of A Melt Out?

[Aleman]

Yes. I've got that. Thanks. I'll have a look at your link.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Snowyowl9]

 

[knocker]

Quote

Despite the less-than-record number of melt days, models show that 2019 had very large net ice loss for the year, at slightly more than 300 Gt, nearly equal to the intense melt year of 2012. Results of the University of Liege’s MAR 3.10 model (here using weather reanalysis data from NCEP-NCARv1; the ERA5 reanalysis data provides similar results) confirms that the 2018 to 2019 surface mass balance (SMB) departure from average is very close to the previous 2011 to 2012 record of surface mass loss (Figure 3). SMB is the net result of total snowfall and rainfall minus runoff and evaporation. This does not include the imbalance in discharge, or the extent to which glacier outflow exceeded remaining snowfall input, which is significant although smaller than earlier in the decade. The main area of mass loss was the western side of the ice sheet.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

[Methuselah]

The latest news is not good: 

Greenland ice melt 'is accelerating'

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise is now seven times what it was in the 1990s.

 

[CharmlessMan]

The accelerating Greenland icemelt isn't really news though.  It's the continuation of a trend which has been in evidence for the past 20 years so it won't surprise anyone who follows the science on this.

Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018

WWW.PNAS.ORG

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We reconstruct the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet for the past 46 years by comparing glacier ice discharge into the ocean with...

In fact virtually every measure of a warming climate from atmospheric CO2 concentration and sea level rise to global temperature readings are accelerating at an ever increasing rate.

You can read the latest WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) report right here:

The Global Climate in 2015–2019 | E-Library

LIBRARY.WMO.INT

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E-Library.

 

 

[knocker]

And

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

Quote

Abstract

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2

Article

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48387030

[knocker]

Interesting blog on new research looking at Greenland melt

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Add into that gravity driven marine ice cliff instability and things can trundle on at quite a pace Knocks!!!

With Greenland being a 'basin surrounded by mountains the ocean terminating Glaciers all deepen  as they head inland giving plenty of opportunity for ocean waters to inundate/float off large amounts of ice at a height that is unstable under gravity.....

[knocker]

How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2021

This year, the Greenland ice sheet has provided a feast for scientists.

A cool and wet early summer with unusually large and late snowfall in June delayed the onset of the main melt season – which typically runs through the northern hemisphere summer – but a heatwave in late July subsequently brought higher ice loss. 

This year was also notable for the first recorded rainfall at the summit of Greenland, which is 3,200 metres above sea level. And a new acceleration of ice loss at Sermeq Kujalleq – sometimes known as Jakobshavn Isbræ or Ilulissat glacier.

Accounting for both surface melting and discharge of icebergs, the Greenland ice sheet lost around 166bn tonnes of ice over the 12-month period ending in August. This means that 2021 is the 25th year in a row where Greenland has lost more ice than it gained.

In this guest post, we unravel the processes of ice sheet melt, glacier calving, weather and climate that explain these losses.

(See our previous annual analysis for 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015.)

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-the-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-in-2021?utm_campaign=Carbon Brief Weekly Briefing&utm_content=20211119&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue Weekly

[Nick B]

166bn tonnes. i.e. well over 2 million Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers in mass. Or 500,000 Empire State Buildings. Or to compare it with a more relatively similar mass, it's about 1/6 of the weight of all man-made structures on the planet combined (about 1.1 trillion tonnes, which itself is now more than the weight of all the earth's biomass combined too). In one year.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Nick B

[knocker]

Untangled the Abrupt Cooling of the Younger Dryas Event? In Greenland, the Hiawatha Glacier Hides a 31-kilometer-wide Impact Crater

In Greenland, the Hiawatha glacier hides a huge impact crater below the Ice Sheet. Regardless of its exact age, the asteroid had significant environmental consequences in the Northern Hemisphere and possibly at a global scale with billions of tons of ice vaporized within an instant.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/cryosphere/in-greenland-hyawatha-glacier-hide-impact-crater-rrc/?fbclid=IwAR3mE6QLKvL2Sdv01r_R1YKjjwiWUZypAds7eQRm7cBdZWi_ZjVyeB1i4Ak

[Mixer 85]

On 23/11/2021 at 18:10, Nick B said:

166bn tonnes. i.e. well over 2 million Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers in mass. Or 500,000 Empire State Buildings. Or to compare it with a more relatively similar mass, it's about 1/6 of the weight of all man-made structures on the planet combined (about 1.1 trillion tonnes, which itself is now more than the weight of all the earth's biomass combined too). In one year.

Or to put it into a more useful, less alarming perspective, Greenland lost about 0.0058% of its total mass. At that rate it could disappear in just over 17,000years.

[Nick B]

3 hours ago, Mixer 85 said:

Or to put it into a more useful, less alarming perspective, Greenland lost about 0.0058% of its total mass. At that rate it could disappear in just over 17,000years.

I wouldn't trust that rate to stay the same... would you?

Being on a bus right now with my phone, I'm consequently less able than usual to check on what's known about the historical rates over the last 100-or-so years. I'll bet others aren't hampered to the same degree, though, and could no doubt show an alarmingly growing trend in its rate of loss. Couple that with the reduced albedo due to the loss of sea ice across the entire Arctic area over roughly the same period, I think it's fair to say the balance of probability is pointing towards a less than rosy future in terms of sea levels.

Not to mention, it really doesn't need to lose anything close to all of it to create a whole series of problems which are going to beset the grandchildren of our younger generation.

As long as it's their problems and not ours, though, eh?

Edited February 9, 2022 by Nick B
Broken into paragraphs

[Gray-Wolf]

Here's a thought, Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI) has been in operation in some of the Ocean terminating Glaciers since the Noughties, how do you think switching from 'seasonal calving' to year round calving will impact loss rates?

We all know Greenland is basically a below sea level basin fringed with mountains.

The Glaciers draining the uplands currently take ice to the Sea but there comes a point where those Glacial Valleys allow the flooding of that inland basin by the Atlantic

What happens to the Km of ice above once these breaches are ongoing?

We know that current atmospheric forcings, when last the norm, saw West Antarctica ice free & Greenland 2/3rds ice free (125,000 yrs ago?) so it is not a question of 'If' we'll see massive discharge from Greenland , just a matter of 'When'?

[The Future]

This: 

Greenland ice losses set to raise global sea levels by nearly a foot, new research shows

EDITION.CNN.COM

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Widespread ice losses from Greenland have locked in nearly a foot of global sea level rise in the near future -- and new research suggests there is no way to stop it, even if...

Vs

I’m confused, 

[Mixer 85]

On 01/09/2022 at 20:03, The Future said:

This: 

Greenland ice losses set to raise global sea levels by nearly a foot, new research shows

EDITION.CNN.COM

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Widespread ice losses from Greenland have locked in nearly a foot of global sea level rise in the near future -- and new research suggests there is no way to stop it, even if...

Vs

I’m confused, 

Yet another example of climate model derived scare nonsense. The fact they give no timeline for this apparently impending flood is proof enough that it’s junk.

Timing of the article is quite remarkable too as it coincides with record gains….or perhaps it’s zombie ice that will roam the earth suddenly melting, causing an abrupt apocalyptic rise in sea levels  

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Mixer 85 said:

Yet another example of climate model derived scare nonsense. The fact they give no timeline for this apparently impending flood is proof enough that it’s junk.

Timing of the article is quite remarkable too as it coincides with record gains….or perhaps it’s zombie ice that will roam the earth suddenly melting, causing an abrupt apocalyptic rise in sea levels  

I get the impression that 'junk' and 'nonsense' are your forte, Mixer?

[Mixer 85]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I get the impression that 'junk' and 'nonsense' are your forte, Mixer?

Hahahah, I’m guessing what you meant to say was that the ability to recognise junk and nonsense are my forte.

[ANYWEATHER]

20 hours ago, Mixer 85 said:

Yet another example of climate model derived scare nonsense. The fact they give no timeline for this apparently impending flood is proof enough that it’s junk.

Timing of the article is quite remarkable too as it coincides with record gains….or perhaps it’s zombie ice that will roam the earth suddenly melting, causing an abrupt apocalyptic rise in sea levels  

What's quite remarkable is the increase in scaremongering, it's now at an alarming rate! Anyway totally agree of  your opinion,  ☺

[Mixer 85]

Seems Iceland has fared similarly to Greenland this summer.

Also Arctic sea ice having a good season.

 

Historically Cold Summer Confirmed in Recent Report from Met Office

WWW.ICELANDREVIEW.COM

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This year's summer has broken records for low temperatures. According to a recent report from the Meteorological Office of Iceland...