July CET Watch

[DAVID SNOW]

16.2. Ta.

[summer blizzard]

Well it looks another cool first week to the month in terms of maxima with a rather wet picture as well, models do diverge afterward however and minima could remain high.

[DR Hosking]

I will guess 15.7C

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

16.7C

[Norrance]

17.1C for me please. A warm end?

[AderynCoch]

16.6

[Don]

Time for my guess. I feel that it's likely that July will be a rather mediocre month but somewhat better than June with a possible heatwave towards month's end. I will go with a CET of 16.5C.

[davehsug]

15.8C please

[TonyH]

16.2c please.

[Kentish Man]

15.6C please

[J10]

16.8c

But I am rooting for Craig Evans this month.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries and July CET data / trivia

______________________________________________

25.2 ... highest daily mean, 29th 1948

24.7 ... second highest daily mean, 4th 1976

20.0 ... Craig Evans

19.7 ... warmest July and month (2006)

19.5 ... second warmest (1983)

18.8 ... third warmest July (1783)

18.0 ... Paul, snowstorm 445 (hopes for this)*

17.9 ...

17.8 ... Roger J Smith

17.7 ...

17.6 ... geoffw

17.5 ... Backtrack

17.4 ... Scorcher

17.3 ...

17.2 ... Sunlover, DeepSnow, godber

17.1 ... Summer Sun, DiagonalRedLine, mark4, Norrance

17.0 ... Gael_Force

16.9 ... Mark Bayley, Stationary Front

16.8 ... The PIT, SteveB, Jackone

16.7 ... AtlanticFlamethrower ... ... ... --- mean 1981-2010 ---

16.6 ... stewfox, Harve, AderynCoch ... ... ... --- mean 2001-2011 ---

16.5 ... reef, Jack Wales, ledders69, Alex, Don ... ... ... --- mean 1971-2000 ---

16.4 ... Fozfoster, Styx

16.3 ... Milhouse

16.2 ... DAVID SNOW, Tonyh

16.1 ... Polar Attack, Rybris Ponce, Ferryhill Weather, Weather-history, BornFromTheVoid

... ... ... ... --- mean 1961-1990, 1701-1800, 1901-2000 ---

16.0 ... Gavin P ... ... ... --- mean all years (1659-2011) ---

15.9 ... Stargazer, mulzy, Polar Maritime

15.8 ... Polar Gael, Terminal Moraine, davehsug ... ... ... --- mean 1801-1900 ---

15.7 ... summer blizzard, DR Hosking

15.6 ... Kentish Man ... ... ... --- mean 1659-1700 ---

15.5 ... virtualsphere, coram

15.4 ...

15.3 ...

15.2 ... Ohno

15.1 ... 22nov10blast

15.0 ...

14.9 ...

14.8 ... | Cumbria Marra |

14.7 ... coldest July more recent (1980, 1988)

14.6 ...

14.5 ...

14.4 ...

14.3 ...

14.2 ... no thunder here!

14.1 ...

14.0 ... coldest July since 1922 (1965)

13.9

13.8

13.7 ... coldest July of 20th century (1922) ... only one day above 16.0 ... brrr

13.6 ...

13.5 ... second coldest July (1695, 1802)

13.4 ... coldest July (1816)

13.3 ...

13.2 ...

9.4 ... second lowest daily mean (11th, 1888) ... 7 days from 6th to 12th averaged 11.5 (!)

8.7 ... lowest daily mean (20th, 1836) -- the only day below 9.0 between 26 Jun and 25 Aug)

The average for 1-11 July 1836 before that very chilly day had been 18.1 (a summer version of Nov 2010 for CET contest surprises)

________________________________________________________

These are the on-time guesses. Table will be edited after the deadline for late entries (after 3rd) ...

* post #15 (snowstorm 445) may or may not be an entry, I was guessing just a comment.

Edited July 1, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[Thundery wintry showers]

16.0C- I accept whatever penalty arises for the late entry d'oh!

[Gavin P]

Can I lower my guess to 15.3 please?

If it means I'll get a penalty I'll stick with 16.0

Sorry to be pain.

[BARRY]

can i get in 14.9c as i could have sworn i had entered please

[Duncan McAlister]

16.4 for me please, in keeping with the run of near-average months. Sorry for late entry!

[March Blizzard]

15.4C. Sorry for late entry.

[damianslaw]

Been away - so sorry for the late guess..

I suspect the CET will end up slightly above average, my guess is 17.2 degrees.

Expecting a cool first half, the milder nights of this week being cancelled out by some cool nights next week, with maxima often at or slightly below average. Second half should deliver some decent warmth at times, but nothing exceptional. Once again it will be a month that sees gradual warming with a more notable spike in the last third, something which has happened 4 times already this year in Feb, Mar, May and June.

Will July be the warmest month of 2012? - its a tough one, my hunch is August will just beat it this year.

[Weather-history]

I think the question "the coolest first half to summer since......." is coming to mind.

[Roger J Smith]

Updated Table of entries and July CET data / trivia

______________________________________________

25.2 ... highest daily mean, 29th 1948

24.7 ... second highest daily mean, 4th 1976

20.0 ... Craig Evans

19.7 ... warmest July and month (2006)

19.5 ... second warmest (1983)

18.8 ... third warmest July (1783)

18.0 ... Paul, snowstorm 445 (hopes for this)

17.9 ...

17.8 ... Roger J Smith

17.7 ...

17.6 ... geoffw

17.5 ... Backtrack

17.4 ... Scorcher

17.3 ...

17.2 ... Sunlover, DeepSnow, godber, damianslaw**

17.1 ... Summer Sun, DiagonalRedLine, mark4, Norrance

17.0 ... Gael_Force

16.9 ... Mark Bayley, Stationary Front

16.8 ... The PIT, SteveB, Jackone

16.7 ... AtlanticFlamethrower ... ... ... --- mean 1981-2010 ---

16.6 ... stewfox, Harve, AderynCoch ... ... ... --- mean 2001-2011 ---

16.5 ... reef, Jack Wales, ledders69, Alex, Don ... ... ... --- mean 1971-2000 ---

16.4 ... Fozfoster, Styx, Duncan McAlister*

16.3 ... Milhouse

16.2 ... DAVID SNOW, Tonyh

16.1 ... Polar Attack, Rybris Ponce, Ferryhill Weather, Weather-history, BornFromTheVoid

... ... ... ... --- mean 1961-1990, 1701-1800, 1901-2000 ---

16.0 ... Gavin P, Thundery winter showers* ... ... ... --- mean all years (1659-2011) ---

15.9 ... Stargazer, mulzy, Polar Maritime

15.8 ... Polar Gael, Terminal Moraine, davehsug ... ... ... --- mean 1801-1900 ---

15.7 ... summer blizzard, DR Hosking

15.6 ... Kentish Man ... ... ... --- mean 1659-1700 ---

15.5 ... virtualsphere, coram

15.4 ... March Blizzard**

15.3 ...

15.2 ... Ohno

15.1 ... 22nov10blast

15.0 ...

14.9 ... BARRY*

14.8 ... | Cumbria Marra |

14.7 ... coldest July more recent (1980, 1988)

14.6 ...

14.5 ...

14.4 ...

14.3 ...

14.2 ... no thunder here!

14.1 ...

14.0 ... coldest July since 1922 (1965)

13.9

13.8

13.7 ... coldest July of 20th century (1922) ... only one day above 16.0 ... brrr

13.6 ...

13.5 ... second coldest July (1695, 1802)

13.4 ... coldest July (1816)

13.3 ...

13.2 ...

13.1 ...

13.0 ...

9.4 ... second lowest daily mean (11th, 1888) ... 7 days from 6th to 12th averaged 11.5 (!)

8.7 ... lowest daily mean (20th, 1836) -- the only day below 9.0 between 26 Jun and 25 Aug)

The average for 1-11 July 1836 before that very chilly day had been 18.1 (a summer version of Nov 2010 for CET contest surprises)

________________________________________________________

These are the on-time guesses and late guesses.

* one day late

** two days late

note post #15 (snowstorm 445) may or may not be an entry, I was guessing just a comment.

note for 14.2, that's a contestant, not a misplaced forecast.

59 entrants so far (not counting snowstorm445) and the median of their forecasts is 16.4 C.

Gavin P, check with Jackone, you said change from 16.0 to 15.4 if no penalty, I left it as is, until you decide if you want the penalty (not sure whether you could mathematically improve given the penalty but I don't know offhand how many points you can lose, it might make sense if you changed by 3 degrees for example, and took the penalty).

[Robbie Garrett]

April was 0.7*C below averaage, May 0.5 above due last warm 3rd however was consistently below average till then, June was -0.6 below average, July is currently -1.1 Below Average, Global warming? HMMMM!

Whilst I am late, probably 13-14*C mark.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

14.2C to the second, lovely.

[SteveB]

14.7c by the 3rd, -0.6c

[DR Hosking]

15.5c to the 4th, Bang on where it should be.

[damianslaw]

Expect to see the CET level off in the coming days, with maximum temperatures struggling to hit 20 degrees in many places, 16's and 17's look the order of the day for many and with some cooler air aloft minima will be lower than this week. In fact today is probably likely to be the last humid day for a while.