Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

July CET Watch


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today was 13.4C and the maxima were around 22.5C, so the CET will likely be around 15.9C on tomorrows update.

With the GFS 12z, after that it will be near

15.9C to the 6th (15.7)

15.9C to the 7th (15.5)

15.7C to the 8th (14.9)

15.7C to the 9th (16.0)

15.8C to the 10th (15.9)

15.8C to the 11th (16.2)

15.8C to the 12th (16.0)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

15.9C to the 5th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

15.9C still to the 6th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

15.9C to the 7th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

Philip Eden (July 1-8 figures)

CET : 15.6c (-0.4c)

E&W Rain : 51.5mm (299%)

E&W Sun : 19.9hrs (38%)

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Shockingly poor.

Edited by No thunder here!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Philip Eden (July 1-8 figures)

CET : 15.6c (-0.4c)

E&W Rain : 51.5mm (299%)

E&W Sun : 19.9hrs (38%)

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Shockingly poor.

Those rainfall statistics are incredible seeing as that only takes into account the first quarter of the month!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

15.9C to the 8th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

For some perspective, July 1st-8th over England and Wales have had:

  • almost a whole July's worth of rainfall
  • about as much sunshine as we would expect for the 1st-8th February.

Sunshine was running at 50% of normal for the 1st-5th July which reflects how grey the 6th-8th must have been. However, warm nights have kept the CET not far from normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Indeed, the figures here for the period 1st-9th July compared to the running 1981-2010 average are:

Mean Max: 18.8C (-1.1C)

Mean Min: 13.0C (+0.4C)

Rainfall: 33.4mm (208%)

Sunshine: 28hrs (46%)

Not a very good first third of the month!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I have to say that the hardest thing to judge in summer is the minima as in winter you tend to get much more clear cut flows. It is hard to believe that with the synoptics for the past few days and rest of the week that the CET may not fall all that much despite a model output that would be quite below average in both maxima and minima during winter.

If anything there does look to be downward pressure for the next week before a transient ridge produces some heat, looks cool and unsettled again afterward.

Anybody know which July's had cooler second halves than the first?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The synoptics for the first week of July weren't actually that cold, as we imported a fair amount of warm air from the south. I remember similar synoptics sometimes giving warm sunshine interspersed with slow moving thundery downpours on previous occasions, such as in mid-July 1995 and early July 1999, but this particular low brought more cloud and fronts and was also positioned further south, so we ended up with cooler days and warmer nights due to the greater cloud cover.

Julys 2009 and 2010 were certainly cooler in the second half than in the first half- it's quite common in what is traditionally, just above August, the warmest month of the year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The synoptics for the first week of July weren't actually that cold, as we imported a fair amount of warm air from the south. I remember similar synoptics sometimes giving warm sunshine interspersed with slow moving thundery downpours on previous occasions, such as in mid-July 1995 and early July 1999, but this particular low brought more cloud and fronts and was also positioned further south, so we ended up with cooler days and warmer nights due to the greater cloud cover.

Julys 2009 and 2010 were certainly cooler in the second half than in the first half- it's quite common in what is traditionally, just above August, the warmest month of the year.

I suspect on average the second half of July is warmer than the first half. Isn't the period roughly 20th July - 10th August the warmest part of the year when places often see there highest maxima of the year. However, in recent summers this period has been dissapointing for temperatures apart from 2008. Whereas 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 brought very warm conditions.

Back to the CET value, it has remained remarkably static over the last 4 days. I can see it dropping a little in the next 2 days thanks to much cooler minima and some preety low maxima, indeed the next few nights do look cool as we import very cool uppers for the time of year, but cloud cover might prevent any particularly low minima being recorded.

Last July brought very cool minima indeed, thanks to ridging and a cool upper airmass, whereas maxima was often a little above average thanks to much more sunshine and light winds.

Many places haven't seen 70 f so this month which is the average maxima for much of the CET area, however, we got lucky on Saturday!.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Many places haven't seen 70 f so this month which is the average maxima for much of the CET area, however, we got lucky on Saturday!.

I think most places saw 70F last Thursday including much of Cumbria which exceeded that quite comfortably.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

15.7C to the 10th.

Hopefully we should see some losses until next week now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

15.7C to the 10th.

Hopefully we should see some losses until next week now.

Why hopefully? People are miserable enough already, whatever losses happen will be cancelled out by the warmth next week anyway. It's been a horrible month so far but I don't think it will end up far off average temperature-wise in the end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Just had a look at ours 15.5C. Warmth next week where what can't believe it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Why hopefully? People are miserable enough already, whatever losses happen will be cancelled out by the warmth next week anyway. It's been a horrible month so far but I don't think it will end up far off average temperature-wise in the end.

Given the likely humidity of any hot spell from now i would prefer as cool a CET as possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

Hadley update has the CET at 15.5C to the 11th.

Next week still looks unsettled with average or below average temps. It looks like a final week hot spell is needed to take us above any of the means now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today is 7.9C while maxima look like being around 18.5C, so a drop tomorrow to 15.4C looks likely.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

15.3C to the 13th (15.2)

15.4C to the 14th (15.5)

15.2C to the 15th (13.5)

15.2C to the 16th (14.1)

15.3C to the 17th (17.0)

15.4C to the 18th (17.7)

15.4C to the 19th (16.2)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Very cool maxima in the next three days and quite cool minima will put further dents in the CET so don't expect any rise until at least Monday. Next week should bring a slow rise, but just like the last 3 months it looks like we will be entering the final third of the month below average, but just like May and June I expect a more pronounced rise will take place in the final third, but probably not enough to produce anything other than a slightly above average month at the very best, meaning Summer 2012 overall won't be able to go down as anything but average temperature wise at the best, with greater odds of it being colder overall than normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

15.3C to the 12th.

Sub 14C here we come! (joke)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

To me, the model runs are trending quite warm, might see a steady march up through the 16s late in the month. Not sure if it could reach 17 but would like to be around 16.8 seeing this output. Have noticed in past that when regime changes to warm, the models catch on in stages, so would not rule out some real heat by last week of the month.

By the way, check my link tomorrow if you follow the daily records I am posting, I will have July and August up in that thread (see link in signature, but planning to post around 0400h, working on it now).

Edited by Roger J Smith
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

15.2C to the 13th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...