July CET Watch

[damianslaw]

Suspect the CET has bottomed out for the month just above the 15 degree mark, slow rise likely through next week and quite probably a more marked rise from the 20th onwards, with perhaps 17 degrees a good figure to aim for, but doubt it will come in much above 17 degrees, unless of course we see a late month heatwave.

[Optimus Prime]

with perhaps 17 degrees a good figure to aim for, but doubt it will come in much above 17 degrees, unless of course we see a late month heatwave.

Even 17.0c is a bit ambitious. The second half needs to average 18.8c for this to be achieved whilst far from impossible it would require quite a dramatic change to a heavily blocked last 10 days or so.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.2C to the 14th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 14.2C. Minimum today is 9.2C while maxima look like being around 18C, so a drop to 15.1C tomorrow is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.1C to the 16th (15.1)

15.2C to the 17th (16.9)

15.3C to the 18th (17.0)

15.2C to the 19th (14.4)

15.3C to the 20th (15.3)

15.3C to the 21st (15.4)

15.3C to the 22nd (15.3)

[Milhouse]

After the 22nd there are still 9 days to go. As May showed we can still see 0.3c rises each day even late on in the month. At the moment i'm confident of a finish between 16.0c and 16.5c

[Kentish Man]

Here at the stats from Manley Climate UK as we near mid month, needless to say they are about as poor as July can be in this country.

CET: (Jul 1-15): 15.0°C ( -1.3 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jul 1-15): 81.5mm (253 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jul 1-15): 50.4hr ( 51 per cent)

© Philip Eden

[Backtrack]

CET likely to take another hit today with temperatures running below average all around.

[Relativistic]

CET likely to take another hit today with temperatures running below average all around.

Quite right, down to 15.1C now (-0.9C anomaly).

[TonyH]

Somewhere in the 16's then odds on.

[Methuselah]

CET likely to take another hit today with temperatures running below average all around.

Should pick-up tomorrow though, after tonight's mugginess...

[summer blizzard]

Somewhere in the 16's then odds on.

Not sure where you get that idea.

It does look closer to average however for every south westerly a north westerly seems to follow it.

I suspect 15.5-15.9 after adjustments.

[Backtrack]

Should pick-up tomorrow though, after tonight's mugginess...

Yep, temperatures running around average today, it shouldn't fall today.

[summer blizzard]

15.0C to the 16th.

[TonyH]

Not sure where you get that idea.

It does look closer to average however for every south westerly a north westerly seems to follow it.

I suspect 15.5-15.9 after adjustments.

Just an idea, in any case see another poster's opinion that 17c could be the finishing number. Is 16.0c really so different to your 15.9c?

[TonyH]

Wrong thread!

Edited July 17, 2012 by TonyH

[summer blizzard]

15.1C to the 17th.

[damianslaw]

Mmm can't see 17 degrees being achieved now, not even a prolonged heatwave would do the trick. However, we should now see a gradual rise, perhaps 16.5 degrees is a good target. A very near average final figure looks likely, with still good chance of it coming in below average.

[summer blizzard]

I just don't see the CET getting that high, the ensemble mean suggests that it will be over by the 27th and may fall back a little in the final few days.

[Milhouse]

Something like 16.3c is my guess. A little below average but still good compared to last years poor effort.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

15.3C to the 18th.

Warm spell to me looks confined to the 22nd-28th period so i certainly do not expect a finish above 16C.

[Relativistic]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

15.3C to the 18th.

Warm spell to me looks confined to the 22nd-28th period so i certainly do not expect a finish above 16C.

Especially as there is bound to be some small downward corrections. Once again Manley is running lower than Hadley.

[TonyH]

16c a near certainty.

[Roger J Smith]

I just finished a number crunch on CET daily data to discover what years had increased by more than 2.8 degrees from the mean of 1-20 to the mean of 21-31 July. That would equate to a rise of 1.0 in the CET (regardless of what level the 1-20 mean was at, the increase would add 1.0).

Here's the full list and it isn't very big.

YEAR .. 1-20 to 21-31 ... Monthly (incr) ... notes

1948 ... 13.8 to 19.5 ... 15.8 (+2.0) .... record daily max of 25.2 on 29th but month stayed below avg

1830 ... 14.5 to 19.3 ... 16.2 (+1.7)

1980 ... 13.4 to 17.0 ... 14.7 (+1.3)

2008 ... 15.1 to 18.4 ... 16.3 (+1.2)

1916 ... 14.3 to 17.2 ... 15.3 (+1.0)

1854 ... 14.4 to 17.3 ... 15.4 (+1.0)

1911 ... 17.2 to 20.1 ... 18.2 (+1.0) ... record warmth developed and followed in August

1943 ... 15.4 to 18.1 ... 16.4 (+1.0)

1947 ... 16.0 to 18.8 ... 17.0 (+1.0)

This little collection of months was often severely hot in the United States earlier in July.

I have a feeling that 2012 will join this group, possibly around the middle of the pack, pushing the mean up into the low to mid 16s.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

15.2C to the 19th.

[damianslaw]

I just finished a number crunch on CET daily data to discover what years had increased by more than 2.8 degrees from the mean of 1-20 to the mean of 21-31 July. That would equate to a rise of 1.0 in the CET (regardless of what level the 1-20 mean was at, the increase would add 1.0).

Here's the full list and it isn't very big.

YEAR .. 1-20 to 21-31 ... Monthly (incr) ... notes

1948 ... 13.8 to 19.5 ... 15.8 (+2.0) .... record daily max of 25.2 on 29th but month stayed below avg

1830 ... 14.5 to 19.3 ... 16.2 (+1.7)

1980 ... 13.4 to 17.0 ... 14.7 (+1.3)

2008 ... 15.1 to 18.4 ... 16.3 (+1.2)

1916 ... 14.3 to 17.2 ... 15.3 (+1.0)

1854 ... 14.4 to 17.3 ... 15.4 (+1.0)

1911 ... 17.2 to 20.1 ... 18.2 (+1.0) ... record warmth developed and followed in August

1943 ... 15.4 to 18.1 ... 16.4 (+1.0)

1947 ... 16.0 to 18.8 ... 17.0 (+1.0)

This little collection of months was often severely hot in the United States earlier in July.

I have a feeling that 2012 will join this group, possibly around the middle of the pack, pushing the mean up into the low to mid 16s.

Interesting stats - there certainly are echos of July 2008 on the way, CET values were the same at this stage in that month and we saw a shortlived very warm spell at the end of the month bringing the only decent spell of weather that summer. Lets hope Aug 2012 isn't a repeat of Aug 2008 which brought exceptionally dull often cool conditions.. but the omens aren't great. Interesting to compare spring 2008 and 2012, spring 2008 delivered a very decent spell of weather in the first half of May, on the back of a chilly and quite wet April, the June was very poor.. I'd take a autumn and december 2008 though - a proper seasonal autumn and a decent wintry december - no way near as severe as 2010 or second half of 2009 but seasonal enough.

[summer blizzard]

15.2C to the 20th.