July CET Watch

[summer blizzard]

Which mean do you mean?

I am confident that it will be below the 1971-2010 and 1981-2010 averages (no idea what the 1961-1990 average is but that is out of date anyway).

[Backtrack]

16C + certainly achievable now that front is being modeled further north, translating to higher temperatures further north in the CET zone. 26-32C widely over England this week all the way up to Friday.

Edited July 22, 2012 by Backtrack

[summer blizzard]

16C + certainly achievable now that front is being modeled further north, translating to higher temperatures further north in the CET zone. 26-32C widely over England this week all the way up to Friday.

The 28th-31st looks below 16C so whilst it may finish a little above before corrections i still believe the adjusted figure will be 15.6C-15.9C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.2C to the 22nd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.6C. Today's minimum is 13.2C while maxima are around 24.5C, so an increase tomorrow to 15.4C tomorrow looks likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.5C to the 24th (18.9)

15.7C to the 25th (20.7)

15.9C to the 26th (20.4)

16.0C to the 27th (19.3)

16.0C to the 28th (15.0)

15.9C to the 29th (14.2)

15.9C to the 30th (15.9)

[Milhouse]

Despite looking like we will come in below average, at least the sunshine figure will get a boost from all these cloudless days for much of England and Wales.

[snowfluff]

15.2C to the 22nd

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.6C. Today's minimum is 13.2C while maxima are around 24.5C, so an increase tomorrow to 15.4C tomorrow looks likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.5C to the 24th (18.9)

15.7C to the 25th (20.7)

15.9C to the 26th (20.4)

16.0C to the 27th (19.3)

16.0C to the 28th (15.0)

15.9C to the 29th (14.2)

15.9C to the 30th (15.9)

I Think it may just creep above 16.C,

Not much of a downward correction this month?

[summer blizzard]

15.4C to the 23rd.

[summer blizzard]

I actually forgot that was my prediction.

I am and have been still confident of 15.6C-15.9C after ajustments.

[damianslaw]

The next couple of days will deliver preety similiar CET values to today and yesterday, so we should see another 0.4 degree rise by Friday, however, the weekend looks quite cool and therefore we may well max out come Saturday with a slight downturn by the 31st. Its a brave man to bet the figure will end up higher than 16 degrees. Taking into account downward adjustment a good bet would be 15.8 degrees... another below average summer month by quite a margin.

[TonyH]

Upward adjustment perhaps?

[summer blizzard]

15.7C to the 25th.

[damianslaw]

Suspect we have maxed out now and we are on a slight downward trend. Maxes in the next three days will be about 17-18 degrees and mins around 12 degree mark, so around 15-15.5 degree returns, below average, finishing mark could be 15.5 degrees - a notably cool July.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.9C to the 28th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 14.4C. Today's minimum is 10.0C, while maxima look like being around the mid 18s, so a drop to 15.8C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.7C to the 30th (13.2)

15.7C to the 31st (13.8]

I'd say between 15.3C and 15.5C after corrections.

Edited July 29, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Optimus Prime]

League table of the warmest months since 2006;

[1st] July 2006 19.7c (+3.2c)

[2nd] July 2010 17.1c (+0.6c)

[3rd] September 2006 16.8c (+3.1c)

[4th] August 2009 16.6c (+0.4c)

[Joint 4th] July & August 2009 16.2c (-0.3c) (+-0.0)

Clearly in the last 7 years September 2006 sticks out as being a very respectable, warm summer month (though officially an autumn month)

Since and including 2007 the summer months average (assuming July 2012 comes in at 15.5c and August to 2011) and against the 81-2010 average;

June 14.38c (-0.12c)

July 15.88c (-0.82c)

August 15.78c (-0.62c)

If this July comes in at 15.5c it'll make it equal 3rd coolest this century with 2000.

[Methuselah]

Which really goes to show just how close to 'normal' most months turn-out to be!

[damianslaw]

When did we last see a summer month return at least a 1 degree below average CET value? I think we came close last July and August.

[Methuselah]

When did we last see a summer month return at least a 1 degree below average CET value? I think we came close last July and August.

I don't know, DL...But, this year, we seem to keep being 'saved' by short, sharp hot spells?

[reef]

When did we last see a summer month return at least a 1 degree below average CET value? I think we came close last July and August.

Actually last month! June was 13.5C compared to the 1981-2010 average of 14.5C.

In fact the last three summer months were, July 2011 was 15.2C (-1.5C) and August 2011 was 15.4C (-1.0C).

If this month is 15.7C or lower than that'll be four in a row a degree or more below average, which is certainly notable - and the same number as we had in the period 1988-2010.

[Weather-history]

It looks like the 6th consecutive summer month below the 1961-90 average. Go back to the early 2000s and how many people would have expected that?

[TonyH]

Well hats off to those who maintained it would end up sub 16c, barring an upward adjustment - has that ever happened? - that's how things will end up, quite a cool one.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It looks like the 6th consecutive summer month below the 1961-90 average. Go back to the early 2000s and how many people would have expected that?

Certainly Stratosferric, Northeasterly Blast or Ian Brown wouldn't have expected it.

[summer blizzard]

Certainly Stratosferric, Northeasterly Blast or Ian Brown wouldn't have expected it.

SF was actually quite pragmatic and suggested that we could have below average months but no more than 1.5C below average (1971-2000), in one of his posts he backed this up with a graph showing that any greater and it would be a 90% anomoly or something like that.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Pretty much guaranteed that we'll finish on 15.7C before corrections. Somewhere in the range of 15.2-15.6C afterwards.

15.4C the most likely result methinks.

[Weather-history]

SF was actually quite pragmatic and suggested that we could have below average months but no more than 1.5C below average (1971-2000), in one of his posts he backed this up with a graph showing that any greater and it would be a 90% anomoly or something like that.

Don't you think it's odd that when we did, he disappeared? He hasn't posted after January 2010 returned its value. Coincidence?

[SteveB]

Confirmed @ 15.5c