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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

Jane Louise

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
    • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
    Posted

    New thread here storm lovers! Wishing you all lots of luck from this evening onwards!drunk.gif

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    Lynxus Aficionado

    Lynxus

    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
    • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
    Posted

    New thread here storm lovers! Wishing you all lots of luck from this evening onwards!drunk.gif

    U excited Jane?

    Looks like we might actually be in for sometinge tonight / morning!

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    A.J Maestro

    A.J

    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
    • Location: Sunderland
    Posted

    just got home from working in stow-on-the-wold (gloucs)....lots of elevated convection to the south, with a sky full of Ac Cas.....lovely, i'll bank that!good.gif

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    Lynxus Aficionado

    Lynxus

    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
    • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
    Posted

    Evening all :-)

    Getting excited now might just be our night !

    Yep My thoughts to Lynxus, notice it's starting to more ne now on raintoday but only slightly

    just got home from working in stow-on-the-wold (gloucs)....lots of elevated convection to the south, with a sky full of Ac Cas.....lovely, i'll bank that!good.gif

    Oh yes.

    The sky looks very "stormy"

    The current PPN moving up seems to be almost perfect at the moment with Glos / btol etc.. pretty much in the centre of it all.

    Plenty of flooding no doubt!

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    Lynxus Aficionado

    Lynxus

    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
    • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
    Posted

    Evening, well it is our turn for storms isn't it lol

    Although the models as far as i can see , dont support much for us..

    Who knows.

    Still gonna be hit and miss i think.

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    Mesoscale Rising Star

    Mesoscale

    Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
    • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
    Posted

    you lot in Glous send it my way after your done with it but don't use it all up!!!

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    slb97 Explorer

    slb97

    Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms followed by snow (preferably on the same day!)
    • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
    Posted

    I hope everyone that wants a storm gets one! My 82 year old nan told me that she's going to sleep with the curtains open tonight in the hope that some lightning will wake her up as she loves a storm too bless her!

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    Cakie Seasoned

    Cakie

    Posted
  • Location: Up North like
    • Location: Up North like
    Posted

    I hope everyone that wants a storm gets one! My 82 year old nan told me that she's going to sleep with the curtains open tonight in the hope that some lightning will wake her up as she loves a storm too bless her!

    Awe bless wub.png

    No more thunder here but heavy, persistant rain

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    AWD Veteran

    AWD

    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
    • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Posted

    Moderately heavy rain in Bristol now too!

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    lfcdude Accomplished

    lfcdude

    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
    • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
    Posted

    Going to be a interesting night! Who is going to get lucky? Netweather needs a booky, haha, What time is the best for anything thundery? Our isit just wait and see

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    Jane Louise Aficionado

    Jane Louise

    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
    • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
    • Author
    Posted

    U excited Jane?

    Looks like we might actually be in for sometinge tonight / morning!

    I can't Wait lol. It sounds very promising.smile.png

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    NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

    NO LONGER POSTING

    Posted
    Posted

    ppnstorm.png

    Thundery Plume engages later tonight but more especially tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highly complex evolution and still some uncertainty on areas likely to see the best engagement. In terms of major CAPE (LI) zones and lightning the highest risk looks to be where VORTMAX and strong PVA overlaps during strongest SFC heating during Thu 12Z-18Z across Midlands, East Midlands and Northern England. Strongest frontal differential is projected later Thu PM across East Midlands, Midlands and Pennines running parts of North West with forced line convection likely. Refer to graphic below for following:

    * Purple outline regions = SW Wales and N Wales (parts of NW England) model output suggests areas of excessive rainfall bias in these areas through the morning hours of Wed but also through Thu - likely through orographic enhancement across higher terrain on passing of cold front and warm theta-ew plume.

    * Next blue region highlights show potential for thunderstorms embedded within the flow.

    * Dotted blue hatch lined areas superimposed across highlighted blue regions indicate areas of strongest PVA overlap with CAPE good thunderstorm risk.

    * Red line area is core zone of heaviest PPN potential and highest lightning risk. Although thick RED line indicates strongest frontal differential and CAPE integration and areas around E Midlands favoured for lightning potential and thunderstorms. Anywhere within the outlined areas could see lightning activity enhanced, especially to the East of the area.

    ​Good luck everybody! I dont't own this forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Andy Bown Accomplished

    Andy Bown

    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    Posted

    Going to be a interesting night! Who is going to get lucky? Netweather needs a booky, haha, What time is the best for anything thundery? Our isit just wait and see

    Midnight onwards I'd say guessing by the speed of rain movement in the NNE direction.

    Pouring here now but there's a gap behind before the thundery part which is currently in the Channel.

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    tara303 Newbie

    tara303

    Posted
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
    • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
    Posted

    Can anyone say what time or if any action for surrey? wondering whether to stay up or get up early... fingers x'd.....

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    Methuselah Maestro

    Methuselah

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
    • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted

    I hope everyone that wants a storm gets one! My 82 year old nan told me that she's going to sleep with the curtains open tonight in the hope that some lightning will wake her up as she loves a storm too bless her!

    Good luck, nan!good.gif

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    AWD Veteran

    AWD

    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
    • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Posted

    If anyone has been following Ian on twitter, you will notice he now mentions of minimal lightning! The embedded Thunderstorms being very localised!

    Going to be a nervy night! Lol!

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    Staffordshire Aficionado

    Staffordshire

    Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
    • Location: Lichfield
    Posted

    ppnstorm.png

    Thundery Plume engages later tonight but more especially tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highly complex evolution and still some uncertainty on areas likely to see the best engagement. In terms of major CAPE (LI) zones and lightning the highest risk looks to be where VORTMAX and strong PVA overlaps during strongest SFC heating during Thu 12Z-18Z across Midlands, East Midlands and Northern England. Strongest frontal differential is projected later Thu PM across East Midlands, Midlands and Pennines running parts of North West with forced line convection likely. Refer to graphic below for following:

    * Purple outline regions = SW Wales and N Wales (parts of NW England) model output suggests areas of excessive rainfall bias in these areas through the morning hours of Wed but also through Thu - likely through orographic enhancement across higher terrain on passing of cold front and warm theta-ew plume.

    * Next blue region highlights show potential for thunderstorms embedded within the flow.

    * Dotted blue hatch lined areas superimposed across highlighted blue regions indicate areas of strongest PVA overlap with CAPE good thunderstorm risk.

    * Red line area is core zone of heaviest PPN potential and highest lightning risk. Although thick RED line indicates strongest frontal differential and CAPE integration and areas around E Midlands favoured for lightning potential and thunderstorms. Anywhere within the outlined areas could see lightning activity enhanced, especially to the East of the area.

    ​Good luck everybody! I dont't own this forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sorry but i cant access that image, any advances on it please?
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    Methuselah Maestro

    Methuselah

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
    • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted

    Sorry but i cant access that image, any advances on it please?

    me neither...

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    Casper Newbie

    Casper

    Posted
  • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
    • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;
    Posted

    If this thundery plume edges slightly more east then Swindon might be in for a shout, fingers crossed.

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