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Wettest Summer Since Records Began - Can It Get Worse?


  

44 members have voted

  1. 1. Wettest Summer since Records Began.

    • Yes, it's likely.
      26
    • No, not likely.
      5
    • Maybe - slight chance of end of July/August being dry?
      13


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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

If July and August are very wet, it's possible.

For this area, no chance, 2007 and 2008 were both exceptionally wet and there's no chance of this summer beating either.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Could it be? If July continues in same vain to June.

Please fill the poll in and comment.

How can you say 'highly likely' or highly unlikely ? as it only a guess ?

I suppose on long term stats 3 very very wet months is highly unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

I think we will eventually see a change in the weather that will see a progressively drier theme though rain fall would still be present. But I believe it all depends on what happens to the air pressure over Greeland as the high pressure up there is the main factor driving our current conditions. Any change to air pressure there would mean probably mean a significant pattern change but not neccesarily a change to something without wet conditions. As much as I feel that we will see a change in weather conditions if the Greenland high continues into July like it has done in June with no end in sight in the models then perhaps we could be looking at a notably wet summer but this can all change at any one time in August. Of course, having high pressure over Greenland doesn't guarantee that we'll see the same wet conditions of June as there will be so many factors that would contribute to the actual weather conditions and it could end up being a little more dry and sunny compared to last month.

So my verdict as to whether this summer will be the wettest on record is it probably won't be but if the Greenland persists into July then the chances of a record wet summer would increase. Certainly we haven't ended our run of summers that has seen synoptics or periods of notably wet and cool conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

How about the dullest summer on record,it`s been the dullest june on record if we can`t get sun in June when can we get it with the longest days, oh yes summer came earlier this year in march.

Wettest june on record generally across the whole country flooding in many parts of the country,river severn flooded a fortnight ago,and of course 2007 started the preset for these exceptional times we are currently in,there was no floods on a river that size in any summer before that,Boscastle in 2004 august I`ll put that in as that summer will be infamous also for a S-ly tracking jet.

June 2007 still counts as the wettest on record,this past june has been overall boring no thunder and dull and just very wet but not exceptional so.

See what july brings looks wetter than last year looking at current charts yet.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

and that indian summer wil last thru out winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

Nah, ice age II starts this year; this summer is the opening salvo!

I think our mate Piers refers to it as a "Little Ice Age"

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Sunny days 25C Autumn/Spring: Rain and storms Winter:Snow
  • Location: Rogerstone

We've managed to make hay every year since forever, and that requires at least 2 or 3 mainly dry days together,

A few times none has been done until late July but it has always been done eventually.

Where I live in rural Wales, I remember a few years ago, must have been 2007 or 2008, the farmer near me started making hay one night because the days were just so wet. He must have just found one night where it didn't rain and went at it, I remember it well because it kept me up all night.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I have a book called 'the country year' and it states today marks the start of the 'dog days' which is a period that lasts roughly to about the 11th August.

It is usually the warmest period of the year when heatwaves and hot sultry humid days are most likely, but it is not necessarily the driest and most settled period of the year. Indeed for many especially the north, we are now past the driest period of the year and most settled period of the year , Feb, April and May being on average much drier than July and August. Also June is often far sunnier than July and especially August, indeed May quite often eclipses July for sunshine amounts and far outstrips August.

So whilst July and August tend to deliver our warmest conditions sometimes very hot weather, I often feel a little dispondent at this stage in the year - as the likelihood of lengthy sunny dry settled periods become much less likely, 3 fine days and a thunderstorm often being more likely. We have had exceptions to this, the likes of 1989, 1990, 1991 (lesser extent), 1995 most notably, 2003 and 2006 (July only) spring to mind.

In some years September can deliver lovely weather especially the opening 10 days with fine settled dry warm weather, but by then daylight is shortening fast and theres no denying the fact it is the end of summer and that summer feel has often long gone by then.

Summer is a reversal of Winter in many respects, whereas in winter, the coldest driest most settled and also sunniest weather is most likely during the second half, in summer it is the opposite, the driest sunniest settled weather is most likely in the first half, it is only similiar in terms of likelihood of temp extremes to most likely occur in the second half in this case heat as opposed to cold. Give me a fine dry blue sky pleasantly warm day over a very warm/hot sultry humid hazy day anytime...

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Yup 2007 holding the crown here as well. Third wettest over all. I noticed the local paper has lost interest suddenly.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

June 2012 was the wettest on record here with 226.4 mm compared to 219.4 mm in 2007. It was also the 4th wettest month of any in the last 35 years and probably the 6th wettest in the last 50 years.

June was also the dullest summer month I've recorded in the last 35 years with just 63.7 hrs of sunshine, 37% of the 30 year average.

With 148.1 mm the first half of June was the wettest of any month on record, just beating the first half of August 2004 by 0.3 mm. It was also outstandingly dull with just 17.8 hrs of sunshine, 21% of average for the first half of June.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

How can you say 'highly likely' or highly unlikely ? as it only a guess ?

I suppose on long term stats 3 very very wet months is highly unlikely.

It's only a guess, but one is rather highly likely or highly unlikely. It's extremes, so that's why.

April, May, June have all been rather wet months, a fourth cannot be ruled out? neither could a fifth when we have had 18-19 dry months before hand.

At least the drought has now been wiped out...for now. Odds on for a decent August one must say.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Null hypothesis - There's no consequence as a result from such a wet 3 month period so there is equal chance July and August will be as wet

Alternative hypothesis - Drier conditions will follow such an anomalously unsettled period

Common sense - Probably not

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Will have to go some. Our record is 390.7mm so far 182.3 mm. The record of course is 2007.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

First ever posting on here but I've been fascinated to read some of the posts over the last few weeks. One of the most interesting things about our weather is the contrast between the scientific and the utterly subjective i.e the perception of 'good' or 'bad' summers can entirely depend on day to day individual experiences and the statistics often only tell half the story. For anyone interested in a more objective view of where this summer stands in history, take a look at Trevor Harley's weather records website. What it proves is that we have always had terrible summers - the great ones stand out because they are unusual.

Also any cricket fans may know about the Wisden weather index compiled annually by Phillip Eden which also shows how summers were not necessarily better in the old days - it seems to suggest runs of bad summers e.g 1962-1974, 1977-1982 and 1985-1988 can happen and it now seems we could be in such a run. But at the same time great summers can come out of nowhere, such as 1975,1983, 1989.

So yes this summer could end up being one of the worst but as an optimist I have to believe in a late May type pattern change suddenly appearing. A long shot at this stage but who knows and those who despair of ever seeing a good summer again would probably have felt the same on June 2 1975, when it was snowing!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

It will take a huge effort in July and August to break the summer rainfall record here. The record is 423.4mm in 2004, closely followed by 420.3 mm in 2007. Up to 0800 g.m.t today we're on 243.6 mm

Still, one can always hope.

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335mm here so far this summer (wettest start ever), looking at the outlook for July I wouldn't be surpised to see another 200mm+ month, and then unless August is rather dry it could well be a record. June-July are the driest months of the year here, crazy weather.

So yes, I'll wager it will be wettest ever (IMBY at least and probably quite a few others').

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

Coldest, wettest and dullest summer on record all a real possibility here.

Wettest on record is actually least likely as a corollary of the constant suppressed temperatures and sunless skies is that we are seeing little in the way of the heavy convective downpours that were characteristic of summer 1957 our wettest summer on record and most thundery.

We are just seeing constant light rain and drizzle which is far worsesleep.png

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Wettest summer on record for England and Wales is 1912 with 409.7mm

At least if this Summer wants to be wet, at least go for the record. Is there any relation regarding a wet spring-Summer period and a cooler/colder winter? I know 2007/2008/2009 where quite wet and look at what that lead to. 2010 was quite dry, so can't see any relationship there.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

From January to May, London already surpassed it's average rainfall, 642mm fell compared to 583.6mm as the average. This does not include June.

Does anyone have June's statistics?

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Some areas already received over 250% of average July rainfall, Even though we are not even half way through the month of July, due to the persistent heavy rainfall, some areas have already seen more than 250% of their average July rainfall. The Isle of Portland, in Dorset, has seen the most rainfall, with 97 mm so far, way above its usual July average of 34.2 mm.

That's madness, we must be well on for the wettest period in history? How many months can it go for?

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/some-areas-already-received-over-250-of-average-july-rainfall/

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Some areas already received over 250% of average July rainfall, Even though we are not even half way through the month of July, due to the persistent heavy rainfall, some areas have already seen more than 250% of their average July rainfall. The Isle of Portland, in Dorset, has seen the most rainfall, with 97 mm so far, way above its usual July average of 34.2 mm.

That's madness, we must be well on for the wettest period in history? How many months can it go for?

http://metofficenews...-july-rainfall/

It only seems like 5 minutes since we were suffering from months of prolonged dry weather with drought warnings, strange indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria

This is certainly the wettest few months i can remember in London & i've lived here 15 years.

The next week looks very wet and cool so those totals will be ramping up even more. I can see July being one of the wettest ever.

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